Forum Value Hunt..Join in.

Grasshopper said:
I can only see 3 posts on that, EC1?
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yes..but they are referring to the thread i started...which then..because it was pretty good..got moved to a private forum on that forum that could only be accessed by the chosen few..i was one of them..coz it were my baby:)

see..i had prestige in them days..look at me now

we did a lot of races..but we started rating too many races..ie..not very good ones..just for a bet..people got disheartened
 
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2001 was pre Betfair and overnight pricing. I can see why that approach would have been successful then but the game has evolved since.
 
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aye

my memory isn't great..but i know we had really good success at the start of Pooling..first few all won..you know what people get like when that happens..golden goose syndrome
 
SlimChance said:
2001 was pre Betfair and overnight pricing. I can see why that approach would have been successful then but the game has evolved since.
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has it changed that much Slim?..you still get bad value fav's like the winner today..on another day our value hoss wins when it don't give 5 lgth+ start.

poor value and good value winners are still happening..thats not changed
 
..........so the winner today would have had to be 17-2 before showing a tiny profit (£2) and being deemed value ? Do bookmakers make big enough ricks to make this system sustainable ?
 
i'll tell you worse case scenario Slim..we do a few weeks..don't get winners..people lose interest..end.

We get winners....word gets round..when our tissue gets posted..loads of folk back it and spoil price within minutes

thats why last time..it went away from main board
 
EC1 said:
has it changed that much Slim?..you still get bad value fav's like the winner today..on another day our value hoss wins when it don't give 5 lgth+ start.

poor value and good value winners are still happening..thats not changed
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Essentially the Betfair price is just pooling so unless your group contains very good form judges who are price aware you're not going to have an edge.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
..........so the winner today would have had to be 17-2 before showing a tiny profit (£2) and being deemed value ? Do bookmakers make big enough ricks to make this system sustainable ?
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its not really a system though..its just a joint view of people who know their hosses...versus the mass betting public

you have to hope..your joint effort..knows more than the mass market

its simple really...and actually..if teh group of people doing it..are decent..you can achieve surprising results
 
SlimChance said:
Essentially the Betfair price is just pooling so unless your group contains very good form judges who are price aware you're not going to have an edge.
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betfair market isn't pooling though imo..its just thousands of individuals having a bet..same as it was years ago when there were only bookies..punters as a whole are still making the market the same as they did 20 years ago..its just visible on betfair..thats only difference

it doesn't mean horses are all up to their price..there are still poor value horses..which means some are good value automatically

the winner today was poor value...a shocking price in that field...so automatically..made our choice good value

people are still lumping on and making horses bad value..and letting good value horses win
 
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EC1 said:
We get winners....word gets round..when our tissue gets posted..loads of folk back it and spoil price within minutes

thats why last time..it went away from main board
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This still happens every evening. Bookmakers put up their compilers prices or purchased tissues and punters come in and bet their tissue against it. The early outlier prices are picked off for buttons but it does not men that the market is efficient. The real skill is finding value when the market is relatively more solid the following morning,

The bottom line of all this though is that your goal should always be to beat the Betfair SP.
 
EC1 said:
betfair market isn't pooling though imo..its just thousands of individuals having a bet..same as it was years ago when there were only bookies..punters as a whole are still making the market the same as they did 20 years ago..its just visible on betfair..thats only difference

it doesn't mean horses are all up to their price..there are still poor value horses..which mans some are good value automatically
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https://danbrusca.wordpress.com/2013/04/11/why-you-will-never-beat-the-betfair-market/

You think you can analyse data better than the collective hive mind of thousands of other punters or the powerful computer systems of the bookies? Don’t kid yourself.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
..........so the winner today would have had to be 17-2 before showing a tiny profit (£2) and being deemed value ? Do bookmakers make big enough ricks to make this system sustainable ?
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Think of it this way, DG.

The winner was returned at 11/4. Expressed as a percentage-winning-chance, this equates to 26.7%

Anyone 'value-betting' at 11/4, has satisfied themselves that the favourite would win the Lazarote a smidgen over one-in-every-four runnings. If the value-better is of the opinion that the fave might only win the Lanzarote 20% of the time.......odds of 4/1 expressed as a fraction.........then that is the price the value-better should be looking to take.

In this scenario, accepting anything less than 4/1 is daft, as the price is lower than your expectations of the horse's chance. Anything higher, and the better your notional 'value'.
 
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the biggest difference to me is that the internet now has lots of information..but as in the old days..some is good some is shite..there is just loads more of it.

because there is loads more of it..people believe all value is gone..but it hasn't..becasue the good v bad info is still the same ratio
 
EC1 said:
the biggest difference to me is that the internet now has lots of information..but as in the old days..some is good some is shite..there is just loads more of it.

because there is loads more of it..people believe all value is gone..but it hasn't..becasue the good v bad info is still the same ratio
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Information is only useful if you know how to process it. If you're good, you can still gain an edge over the herd.........though agree with Slim that markets appear to correct much earlier since the advent of Betfair.
 
from that article Slim

Professional gamblers no longer exist. Mathematically, they can’t exist. You will find people online who brag about being professional gamblers, but the truth is that they just think they are. It’s absolutely possible to make good profits for a run of several hundred bets and convince yourself you’ve cracked it, that you can quit the day job and buy that Spanish villa and speedboat, but it will without doubt, all come to an end and unless you get out while you’re ahead you will lose everything you won.

so there are no professional gamblers out there and no one wins anymore?

really?
 
my view is that more info isn't always correct info...we had information in the 90's before betfair..and i'll wager the same % of that was right/wrong as it is now. We had databases in the 90's..we have them now...they will be right and wrong to the same ratio dependant on how analysed as they were then

its just the amount that has increased..so has same effect

i'll wager that the same amount of fav's win now as then..the same amount of 2nd fav's win now as then..3rd etc

if anyone has the data showing how many favourites have won in last 5 years..post it up..i've got RSB from mid 90's..be interesting to see how all this info is making joe punter make more of the correct horses fav

if you are right Slim then we should be seeing more favourites win..would you agree?
 
EC1 said:
from that article Slim

Professional gamblers no longer exist. Mathematically, they can’t exist. You will find people online who brag about being professional gamblers, but the truth is that they just think they are. It’s absolutely possible to make good profits for a run of several hundred bets and convince yourself you’ve cracked it, that you can quit the day job and buy that Spanish villa and speedboat, but it will without doubt, all come to an end and unless you get out while you’re ahead you will lose everything you won.

so there are no professional gamblers out there and no one wins anymore?

really?
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No. You win that one hands down. Can we stricken that link from the record?!
 
EC1 said:
my view is that more info isn't always correct info...we had information in the 90's before betfair..and i'll wager the same % of that was right/wrong as it is now. We had databases in the 90's..we have them now...they will be right and wrong to the same ratio dependant on how analysed as they were then

its just the amount that has increased..so has same effect

i'll wager that the same amount of fav's win now as then..the same amount of 2nd fav's win now as then..3rd etc

if anyone has the data showing how many favourites have won in last 5 years..post it up..i've got RSB from mid 90's..be interesting to see how all this info is making joe punter make more of the correct horses fav

if you are right Slim then we should be seeing more favourites win..would you agree?
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Agreed.
 
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