Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

rorydelargy said:
What huge gamble last year Suny? I can assure you that Harry didn't have a fortune on Denman in last year's Gold Cup. It's telling that the horse actually drifted on the day in face of support for the supposedly injured Kauto Star.
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I was at Henrietta Knight's today, and following a parade of horses and a leisurely wander round the yard there was a 'question & answer' session with Hen and Terry - the latter is well known to be quite indiscreet
:rolleyes: (The badinage between them was great btw)

Someone asked which horse Terry thought would win the Gold Cup. In explaining why he thought it would be KS, he added (and this is a verbatim quote):
"... This year they've done the right thing, as Hen did, and not raced the horse much so he's coming into it fresh. And anyway, Kauto Star had a few problems last year coming up to the race, that we weren't told about at the time. "

I never imagined I was the only person who knew that, but I assure you I'm not talking through my ass - and I was pleased to hear yet another person (and in a position to have his ear to the ground) confirm it, in front of quite a lot of people too.
 
Oh I do wonder who is reading these forums - Paul Nicholls maybe?

The fact is, Headstrong, that whatever you think you've heard on the grapevine, connections have chosen not to tell the world about it, if there even was any injury/problems there. Boasting on forums about bits of gossip you've heard third or fourth hand and getting shirty with people when they don't believe every word you say isn't really the done thing and I'm sure Nicholls and Clive Smith would be delighted that you are gleefully posting such hearsay on a public forum.

Much as Terry is a good bloke and very funny, he is also, as you say, fairly indiscreet - not to mention a gossip. I wouldn't necessarily take what he says as gospel.
 
Headstrong thanks for the information I for one appriciate you telling us and feel privileged, cheers pal.
 
The only reason I started to tell it as I heard it (from at least four sources now!) was because IMO it explained the poor run last year; and there were those esp on here after the race who were crabbing the horse in comparision to Denman in a very 'crowing' manner. In doing so they refused to listen to anyone who pointed out that KS did not run his race - I was by no means the only one.

There still seem to be people on here who don't want to hear the facts about anything to do with either KS or Denman, for whatever reason. Personally If I hear a story form one person I'll treat it as gossip - when several people tell me the same story I'll take it seriously.
 
Of course TS is right in that Headstrong's gossip may be right, but please don't keep banging on about "the facts" concerning Kauto Star and Denman, since so far as I am concerned they are unconfirmed tittle tattle at present. Not least since I am sure that Nicholls and Smith would not have risked running Kauto Star in the Gold Cup if, as has been claimed on this thread, and I quote, "KS was still suffering the effects of an injury last year and should not have run."
 
I've been told that the office at Ditcheat are reading this - so who knows perhaps they will comment. Or more likely they are just having a good laugh. :D

I assure you that there was no 'secret' injury to KS last year.
 
and ... along those same lines there was at the time of all the criticism of Hen and Terry for not running Best Mate enough or allowing him to 'prove' himself in a weight carrying handicap performance, plenty of backstage gossip about him also. Along the lines of how he was a bleeder and they knew it, wished to protect his 'perfect racehorse' image so kept it quiet, and kept him from gruelling races.

Make up your own mind .... but I cannot think of any reason at all why Ditcheat would be lying to the public about KS when they are actually overly honest about everything else to the point where people even say they tell the public far too much. :whistle:
 
PN is a very passionate man and in the cases of KS, and of Denman this year, I think he finds it very hard to be 'dispassionate' about either horse (in the true meaning of the word). There is often as we all know a very fine line between a horse appearing to be fine, or maybe not being 110% for a championship race - with all the hype last year it would have been very difficult indeed for PN to say anything, even a very mere hint, without sending the media into a frenzy. It must be very easy in such cases, possibly borderline, to persuade yourself that you are being over-anxious and seeing problems which aren't really there. And it's easy to understand that they might have thought by Aintree that he was 100% again (even if he hadn't been at Cheltenham) and that a flat track would show him at his best again. Nobody's accused the man of murder ffs.

I care very much about KS's place in the pantheon, and don't believe - as so many have tried to persuade us - that he was beaten last year purely on merit. I happen to think too that Terry B's opinion of the horse is worth hearing - he is a big fan.

I also believe, from what a number of people have said and written lately, that it's very likely Denman is suffering the (well-documented) after-effects commonly seen as a result of the drug he was given, and much as I'm a KS fan through and through, I'd hate to see Denman disgraced in this year's GC if that were the case. It is a documented 'fact' that the drug causes severe loss of condition, a general lacklustre-ness, and sometimes 'profound depression'. Most observers at Kempton agreed that the horse exhibited at least the first two of these signs. But anyway it looks more and more likely that the plug will be pulled for now... I hope so.

As in all such cases, most people will carrying on listening to whomever they feel will tell them what they want to hear! I also feel there is a huge distinction to be made between 'lying' - of which I for one have accused nobody - and not telling the entire truth, for whatever reason - and some reasons may be good ones. That's about it; there's no point discussing it any further if people want to twist words.
 
You read some bollocks on the internet don't you...

Why would connections risk a horse worth millions in the Gold Cup, just to have a day out, if he was 'injured'? He doesn't owe them anything, he's won millions and millions, so why would they even risk it.

I know the answer; they wouldn't.
 
You certainly do Simon,

As a gelding he's not worth millions. He's worth prize money minus fees. If you wanted to develop that line you might point to the fact that KS was going for the Betfair bonus, but otherwise you're well over-stating his value.

Mind you, if he wasn't right, he'd have had little chance of getting it. But then again, if he wasn't right, it's difficult to think you could finish second in a GC and account for some pretty useful yardsticks on the way too
 
Hey - here's a thought !

On March, Friday 13th by 4 pm, you'll all have your answer - maybe not to Life, The Universe and Everything but the Gold Cup 2009 at least.

Amazing, huh ?


Feck me but there's some outstanding rubbish, bordering on actionable, being spouted on this topic.

And, anyway, Trudi saw and kissed DENMAN on Saturday, so the result's already been affected. QED. :cool:
 
Harry has just confirmed that Denman finished this morning's work about 15 minutes ago and they are very happy with him.

Showed his old sparkle. Described the work as 10/10. Said that he would be very suprised if he didn't line up now.
 
Last year I backed Denman but there were plentley of people on KS, so let,s wait and see it would not be a shock if a difrant horse won the Race to me:cool:
 
Those who are dancing with glee that Denman is "drifting" should note that he hasn't moved with those who are offering "no runner, no bet". I doubt he'll drift any more and will start hardening before the day. As soon as the 7s have disappeared momentum could easily begin to grow. This sort of thing is typical in the run up to the Festival.

I am now more optimistic that he will run. The yard says he is improving by the day and at least one of his owners is very keen to run. I doubt he'll show us what he did last year, but it is quite likely he'll manage to run to 175, which is usually good enough for this.

His heart problem will not be a factor in his performance and the Findlay stuff is just a bit of nonsense clouding the issue (from a "professional punter's" point of view). Hold your nerve, he's not beat yet.
 
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Never forget that a horse will not know what price he is it's all about the day,
Friday the 13th says it all.
 
Looks like those firms offering 'no runner, no bet' who kept him as he was, knew what they were doing.

You can expect to see his price hardening now after this latest bit of non-news:


"Denman's part-owner Harry Findlay is feeling much more optimistic ahead of the nine-year-old's Cheltenham Gold Cup defence after a pleasing workout on Monday morning.
The gelding suffered well-documented heart problems earlier in the season and made a less than a spectacular comeback when a distant second in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton last month.
Findlay had expressed some doubts last week that his pride and joy would even line up at Prestbury Park on Friday week, but this latest schooling session has left him feeling much happier about Denman's prospects.
"He worked well on Saturday morning on the all-weather gallop but this morning was much more important as the plan was always to school him over the outdoor fences," said Findlay.
"I think lethargy as much as anything has been the problem with Denman, certainly with those first couple of fences at Kempton, so today was very important.
"Sam (Thomas) rode him and he worked with Dear Villez and Eurotrek, going over a couple of fences four or five times.
"He looked really enthusiastic, jumped very well and the last couple of times he seemed to have plenty of zip between the obstacles.
"The best thing about it for everyone was the enthusiasm he showed. He is a real character but he looked very happy this morning and barring any accident, he will be a runner in the Gold Cup.
"I am still concerned he might not be the same horse he was to be honest. Last week he schooled in the indoor school and he really was very poor there.
"Just with all the vibes and knowing what it takes to get a top athlete to a top sporting event, last Thursday I made him decent odds against to even run.
"But to be honest, I think he surprised Paul Nicholls this morning as well and Sam was more than happy with the work," Findlay told At The Races.
"We all spoke afterwards and we were happy to go with the green light.
"I'm not sure there is any value in his price even now, but someone said on Thursday, it's always good when a champion gets the chance to retain his crown and that now looks like being the case."
 
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Regardless about the work he did this morning, if the horse was still schooling poorly last week he has little chance in a Gold Cup. Sounds like he is been rushed into a race he is not ready for.

Wasn't Paul Nicholls saying he was blooming? No mention of the poor schooling session in anything the trainer has said.
 
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Galileo said:
Regardless about the work he did this morning, if the horse was still schooling poorly last week he has little chance in a Gold Cup. Sounds like he is been rushed into a race he is not ready for.
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Denman was born for Cheltenham. If he is fit and well he'll jump them senseless (again).
 
SteveM said:
Denman was born for Cheltenham. If he is fit and well he'll jump them senseless (again).
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The problem is the "if he is fit and well" part. If the horse disappointed them in a schooling session last week it hardly suggests he is at the peak of his powers.
 
SteveM said:
Denman was born for Cheltenham. If he is fit and well he'll jump them senseless (again).
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If is the big word there though SteveM..I for one wouldn't be paying to find out " if " he's fit and ready. I still reckon they should put Denman away till next season, that is assuming connections wouldn't be keen to run at Punchestown:confused:
 
Indeed so. That's what we're speculation on. It seems to me it is turning in his favour even before this latest announcement though, rather than against him. Parts of the market look to have reacted wrongly to me (I expect this to fairly quickly reverse).
 
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