Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

Arial_Ortega said:
Does anyone remember that interview that Harry Findlay did in his house about the Gold Cup last year am sure I remember him saying something along the lines of "When Denman runs in the National He wins"
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I remember this interview. It was broadcast on Racing UK on the day that the Cheltenham Festival was abandoned. Harry Findlay was in his house with Lydia, someone else (a man I think) and his greyhounds. Harry Findlay did most of the talking, it was more like a monologue than an interview and very interesting.

I remember him saying something along the lines of: [Denman] will definitely run in the Grand National [next year] and he will win it...
 
Harry Findley is a bloke I admire, I love his ways and his enthusiasum and wish I could be in his shoes one day but I am not sure if Denman will win the Grand National althought if he says he will win it then my money is down, the bloke is just a legend when it comes to punting even better then Dave Nevision.
 
That made me wince!!!! I reckon plenty would dispute your last sentence, IS! Indeed that either of them are legends when it comes to punting must be slightly dubious.

Punting a lot does not make someone automatically a legendary punter.
 
Petticoat Power said:
I remember this interview. It was broadcast on Racing UK on the day that the Cheltenham Festival was abandoned. Harry Findlay was in his house with Lydia, someone else (a man I think) and his greyhounds. Harry Findlay did most of the talking, it was more like a monologue than an interview and very interesting.

I remember him saying something along the lines of: [Denman] will definitely run in the Grand National [next year] and he will win it...
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I think blokes name was Steve mellish, and yes he did say about denman running in the grand national after his weight carrying performance in the hennessy, but as SL says a lot of water has passed.
 
I've always had this conspiracy theory based around what Gungadu would get in the handicap if Denman runs. At 50/1 it might be worth having a rattle at it yet. I seem t think the last time I looked Gungadu would carry 10.2 if Denman ran
 
After what happened in the Becher (and I'm the horses biggest fan btw) running Gungadu in the National would be ridiculous.

10-2 would however put him just in the weights but you have to overlook the debacle on his debut over the big fences. That said it's probably the only way they can recoup his purchase price :(
 
Wouldn't have gone that far when he started chasing but seeing his run at Cheltenham (fell two out in the NH Chase) and in the Welsh National you're probably right UG. If he is going to stay 4m though it'll be in a race he can get into genuine rhythm in ie. the National.
 
Yes, if his heart problems are over with, no problem. any horse which can win a Hennessy in the style he did would stay the GN trip. But imo that's a big if, given how long it's taking to get him back.

Otoh, I'm sure Gungadu won't stay

You need a sound horse who's a reliable jumper, and has won at 3 miles or pref 3m 4f
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Serious question: would Denman stay?
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I was talking about this with my Father last night, and don't think it's anywhere near certain. He was out on his legs in the Gold Cup, and perhaps it's easy to mistake a horse who is an out and out galloper as one who stays all day long. Saying this, if he does run, the current quotes are still extremely attractive as, imo, the main uncertainty is stamina, as I think he's built to carry weight better than most.
 
Every year I ignore those with more than 11st. This year would be a highly unusual one were Denman to take part. Denman would push most of them out of the handicap proper, therefore most would be running against him on disadvantageous terms. And if the handicapper goes a little easier on him, Denman’s chance starts to look extremely good against those that are in the handicap proper. I see nothing in Denman’s make up to suggest he will stay any less convincingly than most and in terms of class he has an outrageous advantage. Therefore if he takes part it would be difficult not to back him.

I’m not confident he will take part when all is said and done, but it looks as though they are seriously thinking about it. I would love to see him take part and think he probably should, but have my doubts that he will.

Better to focus on what is sure. The Aon has always been his target and I’ve recently helped myself to more of the 7/4 with Paddy Power for the Gold Cup.

On the heart fibrillation thing, it’s not something he is likely to “get over” but is equally not likely to be a factor affecting performance when he does run. It is treatable and seems no more than an overactive thyroid. While I’m not trying to make light of this (it does need to be monitored) a heart fibrillation will not affect performance if a horse is otherwise lining up fit and well.
 
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Very good summing up Steve, I would not disagree with anything you say there
Although I woudl add that the GN is the race most likely to expose any physical weakness in a horse

Hamm, I woudln't say Denman was out on his legs in the GC - and they go much faster in tha tthat in the GN anyway! His superiority in a good Hennessy packed with the kind of horses which run in the GN puts him right in the frame, and a horse that size can carry a big weight fairly easily. The way the race is always run would suit him very well imo - he is a 'cruiser'
 
Indeed so, he came up the hill at Cheltenham in imperious fashion (as he had the year before in the R&SA) with good horses flailing around in his wake. The Hennessy verged on the supernatural giving weight all round and putting them to the sword by 11 lengths: “stayed on strongly, impressive”. Those who don’t have faith in him now never will have.
 
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Steve,

He won the Hennesey as he should have, from a mark of 161. Wouldn't Kauto Star have been every bit as impressive?
 
Not at the same stage in his career. Kauto has been a joy to watch in the KG, but I wouldn't like to see him in the Grand National and Denman is clearly a different sort of horse at Cheltenham - a brute of a horse that jumps the spirit out of them and demolishes them up the hill... it doesn't look to me that staying any trip will be the issue even though Aintree bottoms most who try.

I didn't think it possible to do what Denman did in the Hennessy so easily. I thought he would win, but not the way he did
 
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Agreed, I was standing down on the rails just in front of the WP and he cruised past wihtout a bother on him. It had to be seen to be believed. If he runs OK in the Aon he will shorten a lot for the Grand National, but I'd hate to see do both the GC and the GN, given the heart problem.

I wonder what is in their minds... What is the differential in the pot, between the races? There is no doubt he'd be a better price for punting purposes for the GN..... LOL! I mean, I wonder if this year they will leave the GC to Kauto and go for the GN instead.

It's a big ask to do both, but that may be why PN is bringing him on so slowly, ie to keep him fresh enough for the two big ones. Most staying chasers will have had hard races by then
 
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If I were you I’d just forget that it was ever mentioned that Denman had a heart flutter. Denman is a high profile horse and the fact is that if you monitor any animal (humans included) closely enough you will find something wrong. Many horses have such heart fluctuations, other ailments plague the breed. It’s the sort of thing yards turn up every day. When mentioned in connection with Denman it gets blown out of all proportion. We should all have horses as fit and well as this one. He’s likely to have just three races this season and his performances in those races will not be affected.

I’ve filled up on the 7/4 for the Gold Cup (the price is a steal) and I couldn’t resist having a small flutter on the GN, despite being unsure about his participation.

Elsewhere I’ve gone in hard on the 5s on Voy Por Ustedes for the Ryanair and have exposure to Binocular, Punjabi and Sublimity in the Champion Hurdle. I’m on Punchestowns and Kasbah Bliss for the Stayers (World) Hurdle.
 
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an capall said:
Apart from the great Nicanor, of course.
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Well that’s true… but I think we can allow him that one – he wasn’t at the top of his form that day as a novice at a shorter trip and hit the third last. He’s progressed a fair bit since then.
 
I think the reason Denman got tired in the Gold Cup was nothing to do with lack of stamina and because he went for home too soon. Chasers and Hurdlers suggest he clocked a faster time (by over a second) between the fourth last and the second last than the principals did in the Grand Annual. That given it's no surprise he was tiring and it's why I don't think the form of the race is quite as high as what he achieved in the Hennessy.

I'd be amazed if Denman got beat in the National through lack of stamina.
 
Well that’s true… but I think we can allow him that one – he wasn’t at the top of his form that day as a novice at a shorter trip and hit the third last.
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Well......Nicanor wasn't really trying :p:)
 
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