Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

I think the reason Denman got tired in the Gold Cup was nothing to do with lack of stamina and because he went for home too soon. Chasers and Hurdlers suggest he clocked a faster time (by over a second) between the fourth last and the second last than the principals did in the Grand Annual. That given it's no surprise he was tiring and it's why I don't think the form of the race is quite as high as what he achieved in the Hennessy.

I'd be amazed if Denman got beat in the National through lack of stamina.

Although he didn't appear half as tired as the rest of them to me, I'd have to agree with that... I'd also be amazed if Denman gets beat through lack of stamina. I'd be even more amazed if he gets beat through lack of ability or jumping or ability to carry weight... I appear to be saying that I'd be amazed if he gets beat full stop.:)
 
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This I do not like the sound of...straight to the Gold Cup? Needs drying ground?

By Tom Peacock

WITH the weather forecast to take a turn for the worse in the next few days, Paul Nicholls has underlined he will not rush into making a decision on when or where Denman will return.
Although last year's Cheltenham Gold Cup hero isstill on course for Newbury's Aon Chase on Saturday week, the recent wet spell and the promise of cold conditions next week could turn the ground against his star stayer.
Nicholls has entered the nine-year-old for the Irish Hennessy 24 hours after the Newbury race and a trip to Ascot or Wincanton is also an option .
However, the Ditcheat maestro is keen to do what is best for the horse following his heart problems and Denman could bypass all those engagements if conditions are not right.
"We could do with a dry spell and we will have to see what the weather does," he said.

"Denman is entered in Ireland on the Sunday - I don't really want to go there and I suppose there is the Ascot Chase or coming to Wincanton for the CGA Chase.
"So there are a couple of options, but if he were to go straight to the Gold Cup without a run, so be it."
Denman, who has been off the track since his Gold Cup win last March, is the general 7-4 favourite for a repeat victory.
 
Would be a real treat to see him running at Leopardstown again. Doubt they'll get the ground they're apparently looking for though!
 
Missed this...

DENMAN was back on a racecourse for the first time this season when delighting connections in a dawn gallop at Wincanton on Friday.


In what was the most searching test yet for the Gold Cup winner since he was treated for a fibrillating heart in September, Denman, ridden by Ruby Walsh and watched by joint-owner Paul Barber, completed his preparation for his eagerly awaited reappearance in the Aon Chase next Saturday when galloping two miles with Neptune Collonges, partnered bySam Thomas.

"That was perfect, just what we wanted," said trainer Paul Nicholls, "it couldn't have gone better. That's put a smile on my face, one one Ruby's and one on Paul's."
 
Not suggesting there is anything wrong with the horse nor am I suggesting they are not happy with him.

But it is not the preparation I would like for a Gold Cup winner.

That money has been up at around 2.9 since before Christmas. I thought about laying it. I'd imagine it's highly likely Findlay has been putting up money all year.
 
It does look as though Williams is being given a second chance - and seizing it too!
I can't help thinking it's very tough on Sam T after how well he did on the top horses last season, all this undermining can't be doing his confidence any good at all. Maybe PN is giving him some lessons in character building LOL - he did have it fairly easy early on in his career
 
Entries for the Aon Chase. Who is likely to turn up?

Air Force One (GER) 7.g
Albertas Run (IRE) 8.g
An Accordion (IRE) 8.g
Barbers Shop 7.g
Denman (IRE) 9.g
Exotic Dancer (FR) 9.g
Imperial Commander (IRE) 8.g
Joe Lively (IRE) 10.g
Madison du Berlais (FR) 8.g
Niche Market (IRE) 8.g
Or Noir de Somoza (FR) 7.g
Snoopy Loopy (IRE) 11.g
Trabolgan (IRE) 11.g
 
Air Force One, Albertas Run, An Accordion, Denman, Or Noir De Somoza and Snoopy Loopy IMO Gal.

An Accordion was due to go in the Pillar the other week, horses like Imperial Commander and Barbers Shop have already been found wanting at 3m, the others need a prep for Cheltenham (Where does the French horse go - Ryanair or Gold Cup?) and Snoopy Loopy runs in anything worth more than about 30k anyway.
 
I think both the Henderson horses will run.
NH very much likes to run at his local track - partly to support it
 
Ruby definitely going to ride Denman on Sat acc to today's RP (which I read in the supermarket!)
Paddy Power have started a book on who is going to ride Denman in the gold Cup
 
Ruby definitely going to ride Denman on Sat acc to today's RP (which I read in the supermarket!)
Paddy Power have started a book on who is going to ride Denman in the gold Cup

Sad for Sam, but he is the yards current number two, and if you onlu have one horse in a race it makes sense to have Ruby at Newbury.Nicholls has horses at Warwick as well.
 
From what I saw at Doncaster on Saturday, Sam's not even being given the second- best rides now, relegated to Medicinal in the big handicap won by Imsingingtheblues.

Certainly as Ruby is stable jockey he will have the choice and it will be very interesting to see who else gets what if he opts for Denman in the Gold Cup.
 
As I've said before I'd be very surprised if Ruby deserts KS in the Gold Cup - and I'm sure PN would prefer it that way round as Denman is not an iffy jumper - and is pretty much an armchair ride compared to KS who does need someone who knows the horse. And I'm sure PN will have first and last say there.

Regards other horses in the yard, and last Saturday's bookings, I guess owners have some input too and might have expressed a preference for Christian Williams - who is veyr much improved this year imo. I guess this year was always going to be a big reality check for Sam T after last year's fairytale stuff

PN already said Sam is going to Warwick to ride those horses on Saturday. I think it's wise given what's happened to give him a period out of the limelight to help him get his confidence back without so much pressure on him
 
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Article about Nicholls "treatment" of Thomas makes interesting reading.

Greg Wood
The Guardian, Tuesday 3 February 2009

The moment when Sam Thomas crossed the line on Denman in last year's Gold Cup was the finest of his career, and no one can ever take that away from him. His partnership with Denman, however, could now be history, and while his loss of the ride might be seen as just business as usual in the more ruthless world of the Flat, it will leave a bitter taste for many jumps fans, who like to think National Hunt is more sporting.

Not just the fact of it, either, but the manner too. One point on which every racing fan will agree is that Paul Nicholls is an outstanding trainer of racehorses, whose rise to the top of his profession was so irresistible that in the end even Martin Pipe decided to call it a day. When it comes to people, though, his touch is not nearly so certain.

Nicholls appears to have been undermining Thomas's position as his No2 jockey for several months, and he has not even been particularly subtle about it. He has criticised the rider publicly on a number of occasions, most recently after the victory of Big Buck's in the Cleeve Hurdle, when he said he had "no doubt" that the same horse would have won the Hennessy Gold Cup had Walsh, rather than Thomas, been in the saddle.

Perhaps the lowest point in the whole process was an early one, when a bizarre front-page story in the Racing Post suggested that Sir Alex Ferguson – who has shares in horses in the Nicholls yard – would be a good person to consult for advice on how Thomas could regain his confidence.

Yet Lesson One in the Sir Alex Book of Management is that you should never, ever criticise your players in public. The very same weekend, in fact, Cristiano Ronaldo was sent off for a ludicrous deliberate handball against Manchester City – after which Ferguson blamed a City defender for giving Ronaldo a shove and the hostile crowd for influencing the referee.

If Thomas has suffered a crisis of confidence over the last couple of months, who can blame him? That said, a strike-rate of 20%, and a level-stake profit of nearly 16 points, since 1 December, and a record that shows no falls against his name since before Christmas, would suggest that he is not doing too much wrong.

Still, the decision has apparently been made, albeit while Harry Findlay, Denman's co-owner and Thomas's most loyal and vocal supporter, was on the other side of the world. The most interesting question now is what it might mean in the run-up to Cheltenham, and then beyond.

The problem Nicholls has now is almost one born of his own extraordinary success. He has a yard full of outstanding horses, including the first three in the betting for the Gold Cup and Master Minded, odds-on for the Champion Chase, but even a stable jockey as talented as Ruby Walsh can't ride two in the same race.

If Nicholls thinks it is difficult to keep his jockeys happy, then juggling the wishes of the people who actually pay the bills may come as an even greater shock. Clive Smith, for instance, may well consider that his two horses, Master Minded and Kauto Star, should come as a package. If Walsh wants to ride one, he had better be on both, which would leave open the question of who rides Denman if, or hopefully when, he gets to the Festival. Paddy Power yesterday made Thomas odds-on to do that but they are hardly likely to be flooded with money at that price.

The consolation as Nicholls works through the permutations is that such problems are the symptom of his dominance of the game. If anyone was thinking that the overwhelming power of Team Nicholls was starting to make the game a little dull, however, it could in fact be that things are about to get very interesting indeed.
 
while his loss of the ride might be seen as just business as usual in the more ruthless world of the Flat, it will leave a bitter taste for many jumps fans, who like to think National Hunt is more sporting.

There is something very Guardianesque about that statement.
 
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