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Good Bet For Cheltenham Thread

Slim said:
Paul Kealy has tipped up Bapaume for the Arkle in today's Weekender. The Arkle is a pretty thin market and somebody already has a chunk up asking 21 on Betfair so this will be 16/1 by 11am. Anyone that wants to jump on at 25/1 should do so ASAP this morning. 20/1 is probably a good price to nick too.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/arkle-chase/winner
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Did this the other night. Ruby mentioned it in a show with Lydia Hislop. Basically said look out for Bapaume staying on.
 
The one I like for the Arkle at a price is Henry's other one Put The Kettle On. In fact I'm genuinely surprised that 25/1 is still available. I can only assume it's because people regard her as the second string to Notebook.

I'm also quite surprised Kealy put Bapaume up and not this one. She's already proven over course and distance beating Al Dancer, Getaway Trump, and Rouge Vif, staying on strongly up the hill. She couldn't have done it any more impressively. She'll get 7lbs from the field, and as usual it's likely to be a small field. Given she went to Cheltenham in November to find out, we know it's her target so she strikes me as a stonking antepost ew bet to nothing.

And Bapaume over two miles. Really? Surely he wants two and half as a minimum these days. I've also got him down as a bit of a soft horse in good company. It only takes a look at the races he's won to figure it out. Anytime he's come up against graded horses in Ireland he's been turned over.
 
365 14s now for Bapaume. From 25s on Sunday and 20s this morning.

I personally don’t think it’ll win, but Ruby has some fairly decent words to say about him last week. Hence I went in. Now Kealy has tipped him up.

If Melon goes to the Marsh Chase, for which he’s shorter in the betting, Bapaume will be a single figure price on the day.
 
16s best. If Melon steps up in trip and Bapaume is their Arkle horse then 25s and 20s is good business. I never get married or sentimental about ante post bets, just have them and move on. Not much value tying yourself in knots as to whether it can win or not when we know almost nothing about the field, going etc.
 
My take on ante post bets is that if, I back at a big price and it starts off much shorter I feel as if I've won morally even if the horse doesn't place. If it does win, though, even better. It's very sweet having a huge priced winner especially at the Festival!
 
moehat said:
My take on ante post bets is that if, I back at a big price and it starts off much shorter I feel as if I've won morally even if the horse doesn't place. If it does win, though, even better. It's very sweet having a huge priced winner especially at the Festival!
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I think it's a very good strategy to have small bets at good prices now and then on the week of the race you can build around them and try to bet the winner. Bapaume might not win but if he starts 9/1 and you have £25 at 20/1 will you have a great starting point to go after the winner of the race.
 
I have 3 pence ew.....[but have had 80/1 winners in the past]. Seem to be on a massive losing streak at the moment, though!
 
Slim said:
I think it's a very good strategy to have small bets at good prices now and then on the week of the race you can build around them and try to bet the winner. Bapaume might not win but if he starts 9/1 and you have £25 at 20/1 will you have a great starting point to go after the winner of the race.
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Pretty much my whole strategy. Last year was painful - had Hardline for the Arkle at 25s, Real Steel for JLT at similar and Ballyward for 4 miler at 33s. I had virtually everything covered in the Arkle bar the winner, who I fancied not at all and was only in one trixie - with Champ and Delta Work.

This year I've got Abacadabras, Sharjah, A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Santini and Delta Work all at much bigger odds than they currently are.
 
Ilikedwayurthinkin not declared for the Lanzarote as predicted

Sky have just let me get more on at 25/1 too :D
 
I can see Glenloe, Ilikedwayurthinkin and Storyteller all to place at 25s

Can’t see any for Ilikedwayurthinkin? Want to get on now whilst it’s still there.
 
I've taken this too today @ 33/1

Thyme Hill (to place any race)
Fakir Doudairies (to win any race)
Paisley Park (to win the stayers)


I'm not normally a fan of these so called enhanced multiples but out of all them this one offers fair value IMO, although the 25/1 about Paisley Park, Envoi Allen and Defi Du Seuil all to win any race is pretty decent too, covering options on the latter two.
 
A Good Bet for Cheltenham

Pym 25/1 E/W RSA Chase (Hills)

Why is this a good bet?
• Underrated this season on his chase form due to his average hurdle mark
• Was always going to be seen at his best as a 3-mile chaser
• Has Cheltenham C&D form already from impressive win LTO
• Form has been franked multiple times with horses he’s beaten winning NTO
• Already rated OR 152 – Same as Champ (RSA market leader) - with plenty of scope for further improvement

Why is this a good bet TODAY?
• 25/1 is just too big and it won’t last - he’s as short as 14/1 in some places
• Form likely to be franked strongly again today (Imperial Aura 10/11 FAV Huntingdon 12:25)
• Form could be franked further again tomorrow (Highest Sun 2/1 FAV Warwick 13:50)

In keeping with Slim's strategy, I'm suggesting this bet as the price is too big at 25/1 and relative to building a position.
I'm already on Battleoverdoyen and now PYM at big prices for the RSA, can then try bet the winner the week of the race.
 
Double Handful said:
Pym 25/1 E/W RSA Chase (Hills)

Why is this a good bet?
• Underrated this season on his chase form due to his average hurdle mark
• Was always going to be seen at his best as a 3-mile chaser
• Has Cheltenham C&D form already from impressive win LTO
• Form has been franked multiple times with horses he’s beaten winning NTO
• Already rated OR 152 – Same as Champ (RSA market leader) - with plenty of scope for further improvement

Why is this a good bet TODAY?
• 25/1 is just too big and it won’t last - he’s as short as 14/1 in some places
• Form likely to be franked strongly again today (Imperial Aura 10/11 FAV Huntingdon 12:25)
• Form could be franked further again tomorrow (Highest Sun 2/1 FAV Warwick 13:50)

In keeping with Slim's strategy, I'm suggesting this bet as the price is too big at 25/1 and relative to building a position.
I'm already on Battleoverdoyen and now PYM at big prices for the RSA, can then try bet the winner the week of the race.
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Hard to argue with this but slightly concerning there is €111 there to back him at 26 on Betfair. An unusually big position for someone to be taking. Might he go for the National Hunt Chase?
 
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Boosted to 27.63/1 if you can get on. Worth having onside e/w at that price I agree, as he's not really in the "could switch to Marsh chase" category given that he looked to be crying out for 3 miles, so likely to turn up and unless he's turned over between now and then will be shorter on the day as there's a few ahead of him in the betting who will go Marsh route.
 
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Slim said:
Hard to argue with this but slightly concerning there is €111 there to back him at 26 on Betfair. An unusually big position for someone to be taking. Might he go for the National Hunt Chase?
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I considered that, and of course it is a possibility. And yes the €111 on betfair at 26 is definitely a slight concern.
But he looked so good over C&D at Cheltenham LTO and it's not like Pym is a slow boat.
I certainly don't think he needs the extra distance of the 4 miler and if they send him to the right race for the horse, then I'm convinced it should be the RSA.

Also, what else has Henderson got to run in the RSA that's not Champ or another JP horse and that Nico can ride?

I'm hoping the €111 to back at 26 on Betfair is just someone seeing the 25/1 with bookies and underrating him like the rest of the market and pundits have. For the 4 Miler, He's 20/1 with books and there's only €40 to back at 22/21 on the machine - so that would suggest a slight preference for it.

With all these long range antepost bests, it's always a concern you get the target races correct. But at 25/1 I felt it was worth a bet.
 
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It's now 3m 6f and not 4 miles anymore after the jockeys decided to beat a few horses to death last year.
 
Slim said:
It's now 3m 6f and not 4 miles anymore after the jockeys decided to beat a few horses to death last year.
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And rightly so. I’m a fan of Patrick Mullins, but the ride he gave Rathvinden in it a couple of years ago was appalling. Rode it to within an inch of its life.
 

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