Grand National 09

[Isinglass]

Well done Bobbyjo! I had the same thoughts as you, at same moment in race, but sadly he was not the 100/1 outsider I had backed. But said this morning that I thought something that big would win it and had an e/w bet on a few of them.

I am pretty sure Echo has died.

 

[Sheikh]

She's had a few (very)well handicapped horses in the last few weeks, an easy winner.

 

[Powerscourt]

There was a 70 Length improvement by Mon Mome over Comply Or Die with only an 8 Lb weight difference when you compare this years race with last year..

Bookies will be very happy with this result.

 

[Sara]

I put up on a couple of other forums a stats chart from the sportinglife site which gave Mon Mome a cracking chance - scored 32 and was right down the bottom of the weights:

http://www.sportinglife.com/table/index.html

I'd got nothing left in any a/c due to all my banks being tied up (and nothing winning for me earlier in the afternoon!) otherwise I'd have had an e/w tickle - since after reading that I realised if there was going to be a 100/1 shot, it was Mon Mome! I didn't look into him enough - 10th last year should have given us a clue.

Well we can tear up some stats now for next year LOL
French breds - Cerium 5th! - and horses with blinkers - DOC 1st and 2nd - can run well in this.

PS He's a very small horse, and this was Liam's first ride in the race too - which might put anyone off!

And btw I think L'Ami might have won if he hadn't run int he Cross Country.
He had quite a hard race, and got tired at the end of this - shame they didn't keep him fresh for it
Same goes for Butlers' possibly, though he needed oxygen at Cheltenham as well so I had less faith in him finishing well

 

[jairducochetfan]

There was a 70 Length improvement by Mon Mome over Comply Or Die with only an 8 Lb weight difference when you compare this years race with last year..

Bookies will be very happy with this result.

If you watch last years race Mon Mome was going nicely until he got absolutely mullered at Bechers second time round and he did well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances, clearly improved though.

 

[rorydelargy]

If you watch last years race Mon Mome was going nicely until he got absolutely mullered at Bechers second time round and he did well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances, clearly improved though.

Quite right; I had a huge bet on him last year, and an absolute pittance this (my only ante-post bet on the race, but tiny compared with my usual portfolio). Venetia has had a superb Spring.

 

[jinnyj]

I normally get a bit peed off with a shock result like this but I am really pleased for the horse & connections - He was a hugely deserving winner and didn't jsut come up the run in and nail a more likely winner on the run-in - he routed them. Clever nimble jumping and given a great ride.

Clare Balding - what an a*se to ask that of the jockey - hope she rewatches it and cringes.

 

[Harbinger]

The fate of French-breds in the Grand National since 1988:

[b]Year	Ran	FR	Wins	Expectation[/b]
1988	40	0	0	0.000
1989	40	0	0	0.000
1990	38	0	0	0.000
1991	40	1	0	0.025
1992	40	2	0	0.050
1994	36	2	0	0.056
1995	35	1	0	0.029
1996	27	2	0	0.074
1997	45	1	0	0.022
1998	37	5	0	0.135
1999	32	3	0	0.094
2000	40	6	0	0.150
2001	40	9	0	0.225
2002	40	8	0	0.200
2003	40	12	0	0.300
2004	39	12	0	0.308
2005	40	14	0	0.350
2006	40	12	0	0.300
2007	40	11	0	0.275
2008	40	11	0	0.275
2009	40	8	1	0.200

[b]Expectation:	3.067[/b]
[b]Actual Wins:	1[/b]

Could probably run the numbers using SP (rather than proportion of runners,) as a measure of the expectation of winners, if anyone's interested.

 

[Euronymous]

I normally get a bit peed off with a shock result like this but I am really pleased for the horse & connections

Same. Nothing stood out on form and it really wasn`t a race to get heavily involved in anyway. But then again, when you look at the profiles of Butlers Cabin and the winner in isolation they probably should have been similar prices. Obviously the McCoy factor was in place here but James Willoughby is of the opinion that AP is a poor jockey to have on a National mount as he`s too aggressive. Interesting point of view.

 

[betsmate]

The assumption that an individual horse possesses whatever stereo-typical attribute people believe hampers French breds and that the attribute is a constant and that the sample size is sufficient to prove it just baffles me.

One trend that I hope continues is that markets are formed on the basis of people betting on trends in horse racing.

 

[Sara]

Euro I've been banging on about AP not being a 'good thing' over the GN fences for years! You need a jock who sits quiet and lets the horse get into its own rythm - like Ruby. I also noticed between the 2nd last and the last, that all the jocks still in contention were riding with a long stirrup - take a look when you see the replay. AP is alwyas 'perched' on a horse's back.

Rambling Minster was never put into the race. I'm afraid the pressure of being on such a fancied nag might have really got to young James, and he was in a complete blue funk.

 

[Guest_]

Euro I've been banging on about AP not being a 'good thing' over the GN fences for years! You need a jock who sits quiet and lets the horse get into its own rythm - like Ruby. I also noticed between the 2nd last and the last, that all the jocks still in contention were riding with a long stirrup - take a look when you see the replay. AP is alwyas 'perched' on a horse's back.

Rambling Minster was never put into the race. I'm afraid the pressure of being on such a fancied nag might have really got to young James, and he was in a complete blue funk.

Barry Geraghty is not a quiet jockey and his record is tremendous in the race. Far too easy to generalise like that.

 

[EC1]

does anyone think the 2 false starts contributed to the result?

thinking along the lines of fancied horses making extra effort to get a good postion resulting in those horses wasting valuable energy.

 

[Irish Stamp]

Is there anyone else who like me is a bit concerned that the BHA keep taking entries for Butlers Cabin in these long distance chases?

Every time he runs at 3 1/2m+ he seems to literally run his heart out and collapse at the end, it's not good for the image of racing and i'm pretty sure it's not good for BC either. What if one day he doesn't get up?

 

[Harbinger]

The assumption that an individual horse possesses whatever stereo-typical attribute people believe hampers French breds and that the attribute is a constant and that the sample size is sufficient to prove it just baffles me.

As we can see from the numbers, the French breds have only really been a significant factor in the last 10 years where, on average, they've made up a little over a quarter of the fields each year.

So if we say that - based on their representation* - French breds have a 25% chance of winning, the chance of having at most 1 winner over 10 races is around 24%; or ~3/1.

However, if Clan Royal had not been carried out and gone on to win like he obviously would have (can you tell I backed him? ), then we'd have 2 winners - and the chance of having at most 2 winners is around 50%; i.e. even money.

* again, it may be better to base the expectation on the horse's SPs, as long as we were satisfied that the French-bred trend hadn't impacted them significantly.

 

[betsmate]

It's not even the statistics angle Gareth.

It's that some people take this one factor and rather than considering it along side all of the other factors: form, going, fitness, targets, trainer, jockey, distance, course, opposition etc. etc. they just rule the horse. Bang. gone.

I'm not even arguing that there isn't often a good underlying reason for the trend, just the way that people often use them. However, when there isn't an underlying reason and people are making decisions based on coincidence, that really baffles me.

But hey, it's their prerogative. I've got more important things to worry about, such as historically, how many times a horse named Never on [insert day of the week] has run on said day of the week and won.

 

[Euronymous]

The winner was on Mordin`s list. He threw him out as he did Silver Birch.

 

[Harbinger]

Barry Geraghty is not a quiet jockey and his record is tremendous in the race. Far too easy to generalise like that.

Whatever the correct way to ride the course is, Ruby Walsh knows it. His record now stands:

144P12903

2 wins, 4 places, 2 further completions and just the one pulled up. No falls, no unseats, no nothing. Sensational.

 

[Irish Stamp]

And on only 5 horses too Gareth.

 

[Harbinger]

Aha, I found a blemish - he was unseated on Papillon in the swamp National in 2001, but managed to get back on and complete in a distant 4th (of 4 finishers). Still, better than what 90% of the jockeys managed that year..

 

[Desert Orchid]

Am I missing something? or are you rating RM through something that ran in the Eider?

A mental aberration. I meant the Haydock race.

As for the winner. It was the one horse I wondered if I'd under-rated. I felt there were grounds for rating the form earlier in the year at Cheltenham considerably higher but subsequent events led me to stay conservative, and I was aware he'd started a strong fav for the Welsh National.

Still, it was a hugely competitive race. Although I stood to do very well from My Will or State Of Play, I was willing Comply Or Die home, so impressed was I with it from a seemingly impossible handicap mark.

Clare Balding - I'm glad jinnyj also noted it - jumped into a clear lead in the arse stakes for that remark about the jockey. It was more than cringeworthy. I'd call it a sackable error of judgment.

 

[Andy]

Whatever the correct way to ride the course is, Ruby Walsh knows it. His record now stands:

144P12903

2 wins, 4 places, 2 further completions and just the one pulled up. No falls, no unseats, no nothing. Sensational.

I adree about R Walsh I was laying in the place markt, Big Feller thanks and Butlers cabin were my biggest lays but just before the off Wash's horse drifted so I backed it and one stage he looked the winner so I had a good book I thourgh Silver Birch was a good bet for a place so I missed that when it fell going well at the time.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've now watched the entire race several times.

Liam Treadwell was simply awesome on the winner. Contrary to the RP analysis, he wasn't 'in rear' at any stage. He was always in the mid division, jumping neatly and picking his way round the inside, saving every inch available.

However, I think State Of Play was incredibly unlucky. He lost halfa dozen lengths with a mistake two before Becher's on the second circuit then had to side step a stricken runner leaving Becher's. All in all, he lost at least a dozen lengths and a lot of momentum, not helped by being forced wider than usual off the Canal Turn. Watching the replays, it came back to me that I was saying to those of us who were on it "State Of Play's beat" before Becher's and again approaching the fence after the Canal Turn. It was a major surprise to see him coming there apparently full of running turning for home. He was outjumped without necessarily making a mistake two out but the writing was on the wall going to the last. I reckon if he hadn't lost the distance and momentum at that stage of the race he'd have been ten lengths clear going to the last. Mon Mome may well have collared him on the run-in but SOP would have been at least a clear second.

Also, in the post-race interview, Ruby mentioned that MW had made half a dozen mistakes, meeting his fences halfway up, which would have taken a lot out of him, so he's run a cracker in third, and waht about Comply Or Die? What a heroic attempt at defying the handicapper. The horse has clearly improved another 10bs at least from last year.

Incidentally, I had a small bet on Arteea at massive odds and didn't realise until well after the race how close he'd got before fading, so noisy was the house! I wonder if the jockey could have been a wee bit closer to the main pack on the first circuit, although he was presumably riding to instructions.

As I said a few days ago, it shaped beforehand as being the most competitive race I can ever recall rating in advance and the huge pack of contenders turning for bears that out. It was almost as if it was still the first lap.

 

[Muttley]

Aha, I found a blemish - he was unseated on Papillon in the swamp National in 2001

Ah, but even with that it's a bit cruel that it's termed an "unseat" - Papillon was stopped in his tracks by the same loose horse that stopped Blowing Wind - AP and Ruby ended up in the same ditch ..

 

[Guest_]

I thought there were a couple (Irish Invader and Offshore Account) in the race that travelled to keenly and did too much early on but have prospects of coming back next year and doing better ala Hedgehunter.