Grand National 09

It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to their runs. I think he'll have Hedgehunter in mind when he assesses them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now watched the entire race several times.

Liam Treadwell was simply awesome on the winner. Contrary to the RP analysis, he wasn't 'in rear' at any stage. He was always in the mid division, jumping neatly and picking his way round the inside, saving every inch available.

However, I think State Of Play was incredibly unlucky. He lost halfa dozen lengths with a mistake two before Becher's on the second circuit then had to side step a stricken runner leaving Becher's. All in all, he lost at least a dozen lengths and a lot of momentum, not helped by being forced wider than usual off the Canal Turn. Watching the replays, it came back to me that I was saying to those of us who were on it "State Of Play's beat" before Becher's and again approaching the fence after the Canal Turn. It was a major surprise to see him coming there apparently full of running turning for home. He was outjumped without necessarily making a mistake two out but the writing was on the wall going to the last. I reckon if he hadn't lost the distance and momentum at that stage of the race he'd have been ten lengths clear going to the last. Mon Mome may well have collared him on the run-in but SOP would have been at least a clear second.

Also, in the post-race interview, Ruby mentioned that MW had made half a dozen mistakes, meeting his fences halfway up, which would have taken a lot out of him, so he's run a cracker in third, and waht about Comply Or Die? What a heroic attempt at defying the handicapper. The horse has clearly improved another 10bs at least from last year.

Incidentally, I had a small bet on Arteea at massive odds and didn't realise until well after the race how close he'd got before fading, so noisy was the house! I wonder if the jockey could have been a wee bit closer to the main pack on the first circuit, although he was presumably riding to instructions.

As I said a few days ago, it shaped beforehand as being the most competitive race I can ever recall rating in advance and the huge pack of contenders turning for bears that out. It was almost as if it was still the first lap.
Click to expand...

Read the racing post analysis of the race. I had my main bet on Black Apalachi (among others) but he doesn't even get a mention. I'm not an expert on the sport but I was happy enough with the way he was going at the time and thought I would have read that he at least would have been involved at the finish. Am I wrong?
 
Horses`s that lead that early and for that long rarely are involved at the death. Mr Frisk and Hallo Dandy spring to mind but I could be wrong.
 
Euronymous said:
Horses`s that lead that early and for that long rarely are involved at the death. Mr Frisk and Hallo Dandy spring to mind but I could be wrong.
Click to expand...

You're probably right. But I had Black Apalachi as a sure stayer and thought he was in a great position.
 
I'd agree with euro. The principals came from mid-division or further back (another reason for believeing SOP performed with extra credit - he was always prominent until his mistake) while the leaders faded. The pace must have been pretty sharp.
 
I agree re Black Apalachi - the ones out front went a bit too fast. For a doubtful stayer, Irish Invader ran very keen alright and no surprise he ran out of steam. Would be one to keep in mind for next year, as he jumped brilliantly. What a run from Cerium by the way....

Wonder if the English handicapper feels a tad guilty for rating Hear The Echo so far above his Irish rating, thus saddling him with more weight than he should have. Potentially a hysterical reaction, just putting it out there.....
 
The pace was good and Black Apalachi was favourite in running on Betfair when falling at Bechers second time. He has always looked a horse that would stay all day and was ridden that way. It definitely could be argued that Offshore Account and State of Play didnt stay the last 3f. Accepting that it was too far out to say for certain where Black Apalachi would have finished, to my eyes, he at least deserved some comment in any good race analysis.

For instance, why give State of Play extra credit, while not give Black Apalachi any benefit of a doubt?
 
Irish Stamp said:
Is there anyone else who like me is a bit concerned that the BHA keep taking entries for Butlers Cabin in these long distance chases?

Every time he runs at 3 1/2m+ he seems to literally run his heart out and collapse at the end, it's not good for the image of racing and i'm pretty sure it's not good for BC either. What if one day he doesn't get up?
Click to expand...


My thoughts exactly IS and I feel so strongly about it I might 'write a letter'! They are very lucky indeed imo to still have him today, and after he collapsed at Cheltenham after the Wm Hill only three weeks ago (unreported except by me!) I was very concerned to see him being declared for this - and esp with the driven and hungry AP aboard.

This is the report in the Telegraph today - obviously after speaking to AP:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ho...as-he-loses-Grand-National-for-14th-time.html

<<
He was phlegmatic in defeat. He has had plenty of practice in the National – yesterday was only his fifth clear round in 14 attempts – and his concern was for the horse rather than his record.

"He [Butler's Cabin] was very tired during the race and I never felt he had any chance of winning," he said. "He was very tired at the end of the race and needed some time."

Butler's Cabin has collapsed before and required oxygen after other long-distance races, and there is no reason to believe he will not return next year. McCoy certainly will, when the riddle of his failure to win this race will once again beg a solution. >>


Well forgive, me, but imo if AP had really been concerned for the horse why the hell didn't he pull him up when his chance was gone, instead of risking his life? Was he just worried about improving his finishing record (5 only if you count the re-mount)? Choc, riding L'Ami who'd been going just as well if not better than BC, pulled him up at 2 out as he could see he wasn't going to be placed - correct decision.


John Henderson in the Guardian is also interesting on the topic of AP's failures:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/apr/04/grand-national-liam-treadwell-mon-mome

<< Over those more than three decades, Jonjo O'Neill, John Francome, Peter Scudamore and McCoy, as star-spangled a line-up of horsemen as it is possible to imagine, have all brought their carefully laid plans and obsessive ambition to sport's most unforgiving obstacle course, to no avail.Therein, maybe, lies one of the reasons they have been unsuccessful: they have been just too well organised and too fiercely driven. McCoy exemplifies both these characteristics.

"He is very dominant in the saddle," says one ex jockey, "and also has very firm ideas what he should and shouldn't do in any particular race."

 Over the ancient acres of Aintree this is not necessarily a good idea. The course can be sheer torture for fired-up control freaks with the possibility of the unexpected attending every breathless stride – as McCoy discovered yet again yesterday. >>



Galileo - I take your point about Barry G but he does seem to 'sit' over the big Aintree fences. He also - like Ruby - has relatively long legs (not they helped him yesterday)


Re: State Of Play versus Mon Mome- MM too was hampered by fallers twice in the race, and he and Liam had to be quite nifty to avoid being BD.


Murphy on COD went the long route both years, very sensibly given the horse was wearing headgear. He would have saved ground going the shorter route but it would be more than usually dangerous in blinkers
 
Last edited:
I agree Black Apalachi deserved a mention for how well it had run. Was Andy Pandy going any better in his year? Or Clan Royal in his? Yet both those were all over the papers the next day. I suspect the pace wasn't as fast in those races, especially in Andy Pandy's race.

The only way horses win well from the front is when they are exceptionally well handicapped in the way Lord Gyllene or Ben Nevis were. The handicapper set BA quite a challenge on account of its course form.
 
Butler's Cabin has collapsed or near-collapsed at least three times now post-race, he did so when he won the four miler at Cheltenham also. He is a horse who gives his all and in doing so on occasion he will give to such an extent that he will collapse. However connections are quite aware of how to treat him when it happens and he is usually fine within a few minutes; it also seems to have little effect on him subsequently. I really don't see why he should be barred from running in certain races.
 
Isn't the point that the horse should maybe be found easier races that don't affect so drastically. The lay person will understandably view it as cruel to ask such a generous horse to give so much of itself in such tough assignments.

A human will opt to give up. Even Paula Radcliffe did it. A generous horse will keep giving when asked, being unable to rationalise its predicament.
 
Horses can also opt to give up - ever tried to make a horse do something that it doesn't want to do??

The point is that Butler's Cabin doesn't give any outward signs that he is about to collapse - he continues to give then does so afterwards. So what is a jockey to do? Pull him up after 2 and a half miles just in case he might collapse?
 
I find it increasingly hard to defend the running of the horse in such races now it has happened again, I'm no vet but christ.

"Ah there goes Butlers Cabin collapsing again, the scamp"
 
Shadow Leader said:
Horses can also opt to give up - ever tried to make a horse do something that it doesn't want to do??

The point is that Butler's Cabin doesn't give any outward signs that he is about to collapse - he continues to give then does so afterwards. So what is a jockey to do? Pull him up after 2 and a half miles just in case he might collapse?
Click to expand...

Some will give up. Many won't. Butler's Cabin seems the type that won't.

JP has dozens of horses and he seems the kind of chap who wants them looked after. I'm not so sure Johnjo shares his kind nature. Give the horse a happy retirement and if he doesn't seem happy in retirement run him in easier races.
 
If the horse is going to collapse, who is to say which races he is going to collapse in? That is my point. Taking that stance, the horse must be retired, no other option.
 
What happened to Rambling Minster; for such a well fancied horse I haven't heard the reason for him being pulled up..was he injured by the falling horse or was he so out of contention that, when he was badly hampered it wasn't worth carrying on ?[I've got explanations to make to all the people I told to back him; Point Barrow all over again!]
 
moehat said:
What happened to Rambling Minster; for such a well fancied horse I haven't heard the reason for him being pulled up..was he injured by the falling horse or was he so out of contention that, when he was badly hampered it wasn't worth carrying on ?[I've got explanations to make to all the people I told to back him; Point Barrow all over again!]
Click to expand...

Welcome to the forum Moehat (hope you can see everything now :))...think he made a mistake early on and then was hampered later on. Those sort of things make it hard for a horse to settle into a rhythm.
 
Didn't see anything about him; need answers for work tomorrow! Terribly disappointed about Rambo, really, but at least satisfied that my total incredulity at the thought of Butlers Cabin winning has been justified, he was tipped at the preview I went to and I just walked around afterwards shaking my head saying, I can't have Butlers Cabin...as for this site, well, sometimes I can get onto it and sometimes I can't, so it's quite exciting.
 
Ah, yes, see the reply that you mean; what I was looking for was more of a quote from the jockey...I can only assume that when he was hampered he didn't feel that he had any chance of getting into the race; my personal opinion was that the horse just didn't take to it, and the incident with the stricken horse was the final straw. Hope he's ok anyway.
 
Shadow Leader said:
If the horse is going to collapse, who is to say which races he is going to collapse in? That is my point. Taking that stance, the horse must be retired, no other option.
Click to expand...

Surely the horse only collapses when he's given his all and then that wee bit more.

In an easier race he could win without over-exerting himself.

If he's going to collapse anyway, I'd go for retirement too.
 
I expect BC collapses due to oxygen deficiency and most probably just forgets to/can't breathe towards the end of a race when under pressure. I had a horse I ran once who came in very wobbly rolling her eyeballs. I spoke to my Dad and he said she was most likely running holding her breathe. I planned to run her in a tongue tie the next time but the owner was such a kn*b I told him to take her elsewhere. She ran the next few races the same despite my advising the trainer to run her with a tongue tie.

Horses that die of heart attacks after races are different cases entirely. Often the horses will be in great form mentally and physically. I hold the theory that many of these fatalities are due to aneurysms caused by red worm damage early in their lives most probably as foals on poorly managed pasture.
 
Headstrong said:
Well forgive, me, but imo if AP had really been concerned for the horse why the hell didn't he pull him up when his chance was gone, instead of risking his life? Was he just worried about improving his finishing record (5 only if you count the re-mount)? Choc, riding L'Ami who'd been going just as well if not better than BC, pulled him up at 2 out as he could see he wasn't going to be placed - correct decision.
Click to expand...

So all horses that will be unplaced are to be pulled up now? An interesting rule change I must have missed. You're sure you're not trying to justify your pre-race ascertion that McCoy can't ride the National fences?

An amazingly competitive race settled by a sprint away from the pack by the winner, perhaps the third or forth horse to win at the Aintree meeting that I had backed, at Cheltenham!

The GN is a race I backed 5 of the winners in the 7 races between 1991 & 1998 (easy the National, innit!) but in the last 11 years have had I think 1 winner (Red Mauarder) and 1 placed horse (McKelvey). Still, at least people don't pester me for tips aymore! :)
 
Back
Top