Grand National 2020

Diamond Geezer said:
You are aware he was pulled up with a defibrillating heart at Haydock and probably won't run in the GN ?
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This. One For Arthur was one I didn’t mind till his Haydock run. Fox was giving reminders after about 3 fences, knew something was amiss then, now I know why.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just watched last year's race a couple of times.

Magic Of Light made at least two serious mistakes, especially the one at the last where she lost her momentum and arguably the race. Although she was beaten a few lengths at the line, I'd argue that a mistake of that nature at that stage of that race would have been very hard to recover from.

The other thing that caught my eye was the really bad ride One For Arthur got. I can only assume Fox was riding to instructions but he made up a colossal amount of ground at probably the defining section of the race, from the Canal Turn for the second time to just after the last fence. I imagine if anyone did sectional times for the race they'd give him a huge mark-up. There has to be a chance he's getting past it but I wonder if he was ridden then with this year in mind. I don't recall him being so far back the year he won and he was coming in last year of an extended absence through injury. I'll be backing him at some point but not just yet.

Anibale Fly was further back than ideal over the first few but wasn't too badly positioned from Becher's first time round.

I can't help thinking the pace probably wasn't strong. The first four finishers were prominent the whole way and the fourth, Walk In The Mill, has already come out and franked the form this season while Magic Of Light has shown her well-being over hurdles..

But the more I look at the finish the more impressed I am by One For Arthur's final mile.
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I find it fascinating how, in our race reading we all see different things and read into it as much. The horses to the front half of the field were massively favoured by the filtering effect that occurred when the whole field was forced to slow up and go round the narrow gap to the side of one of the fence's, horses that were 2/3 Length's behind jumping the previous fence, came out of the gap, anything up to 30L behind. This midrace diversion also slowed the pace somewhat, and caused a lot of horses to run diagonally to the next fence in order to get a look at it.

I thought Pleasant Company, who runs in the Bobby Jo on saturday (ran Tiger Roll close the previous year) was still tanking along in the lead, when the jockey was unseated by the slight interference from Magic Of Light and would have been involved in the finish again.

In My opinion, I think since the changing of the fences and the reduction of distance, horses running midfield and towards the back, kind of run the gauntlet of fallers, it's a bit of a minefield. Lying handy is definately an advantage!
 
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Maxbet said:
I find it fascinating how, in our race reading we all see different things and read into it as much. The horses to the front half of the field were massively favoured by the filtering effect that occurred when the whole field was forced to slow up and go round the narrow gap to the side of one of the fence's, horses that were 2/3 Length's behind jumping the previous fence, came out of the gap, anything up to 30L behind. This midrace diversion also slowed the pace somewhat, and caused a lot of horses to run diagonally to the next fence in order to get a look at it.

I thought Pleasant Company, who runs in the Bobby Jo on saturday (ran Tiger Roll close the previous year) was still tanking along in the lead, when the jockey was unseated by the slight interference from Magic Of Light and would have been involved in the finish again.

In My opinion, I think since the changing of the fences and the reduction of distance, horses running midfield and towards the back, kind of run the gauntlet of fallers, it's a bit of a minefield. Lying handy is definately an advantage!
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Cheers, Maxbet. That's something I completely missed and had even forgot had happened until I watched the race through last night.

I watched it at the Sporting Life site, which used the RTV pictures and all we got was a rear-on long-distance view of the horses moving wide of the fence. I think the JP horse (name escapes me but had once been reckoned Gold Cup class) ended up running on the dirt track. When the angle changed it gave no perspective of the impact the arrangement had caused.

That said, I'd argue that it only enhances my view of OFA's final mile.

I also re-ran Pleasant Company's mishap and that was sheer bad luck. He was travelling and jumping well at that point and could easily have been involved at the finish.

My main reason for looking at it again was to check Ballyoptic. I'm not sure he was going as well as the leaders when he unseated but the fact that NTD has trained him all season for another go suggests they think he's an ideal type.
 
Gutted to hear about Native River; I had bet him for both the GC and the National, although I didn't really think they'd run him in the latter. However surely that means that, when they do get him back they'll have a crack at the National. I know he'll be about 12 by then but I'd love to see him do a Crisp...but come first.
 
Anyone who has backed and has cash out, I'd have thought that Cadmium running over 2m on Sunday means that he's very unlikely to qualify for the National. You can never say never with Willie but he must be well odds on to come out at the next forfeit stage.
 
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archie said:
Anyone who has backed and has cash out, I'd have thought that Cadmium running over 2m on Sunday means that he's very unlikely to qualify for the National. You can never say never with Willie but he must be well odds on to come out at the next forfeit stage.
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Said he won’t run at the weights reveal. Something about not sure he’d get the trip.
 
My selection for the race, Alpha Des Obeaux, goes tomorrow. Im on at 40s. A pity Russell is on as he wont be riding him at Aintree.


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10-10 looks like a lovely weight but I'm not sure 157 is a winning mark.

He was one of the first ones I checked when the weights came out because I thought he would win a couple of years ago when he was hampered out of it but his form over the last year or so didn't make me want to rush to back him. I wouldn't rule him out but I thought he had an unnecessarily hard race today in a contest that seemed to fall apart.
 
Desert Orchid said:
10-10 looks like a lovely weight but I'm not sure 157 is a winning mark.

He was one of the first ones I checked when the weights came out because I thought he would win a couple of years ago off 149 when he was hampered out of it and subsequent RPRs in the mid-160s back up that belief but his form over the last year or so didn't make me want to rush to back him. I wouldn't rule him out but I thought he had an unnecessarily hard race today in a contest that seemed to fall apart.
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I've now watched yesterday's race through again a couple of times. The more I see it the more I distrust the form. Seeyouatmidnight was only out for a jog, Kauto Riko was ridden like a non-stayer and finished like one, the outclassed Dimple was still there as they started the final turn for home and was allowed to jog home to the point that even SYAM, who'd been tailed off at one point, was able to jog past him, Saint Xavier stopped to nothing late on and even DR wasn't increasing his advantage over KR on the last half-furlong despite the jockey shoving until very late on.

If he wasn't fully fit all of that is largely immaterial but he's only got 35 days' recovery time. He's probably run in the right races this season but hasn't looked an obvious plot horse. He was officially 10lbs well in a couple of years back so is clearly well treated on his very best form.
 
Well. What do we think they will do about the Aintree Festival?

I looked at this race last night. Snugborough Benny has excellent form in Ireland and would carry a lovely racing weight in this. 50/1 general price atm.
 
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Considering the government will probably hand us all on house arrest by then I very much doubt it happens.

Tiger wouldn’t have won, but would have been nice to watch him attempt it. Be too old next year.
 
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