Grand National Weights

Originally posted by Tout Seul@Mar 30 2008, 05:07 PM
but @ 6/1 Cloudy Lane is now too short a price even in a modern, less demanding, National.
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Ordinarily I'd agree.

However, CL is just so far clear (officially off 141 here compared to 161 in future) the 6/1 is arguably value. Were this a £40k Saturday handicap over 3m2f you'd be hard-pushed to get 6/4. Effectively, the bookies are offering 6/1 that he won't fail for stamina or jumping.

I'm pretty sure Freddie was much shorter one year in the 1960s and Red Rum was pretty short one year too.
 
You also can't discount the McCain experience in the race - and committment to winning it. I'll bet they have a few GN-type fences at home so I doubt they'd be a surprise to CL. My worry with him is whether he will get the trip, but that might just be reading too many doubters!

My feeling is that he will either win or not finish, so he does rate value as a win only bet
 
Cheers for posting up those ratings, Desert Orchid.

The two that stick out for me are Mr. Pointment and Slim Pickings.
 
I wish I had a coherent logic behind my opinion but maybe it's just a value observation. I can't have Cloudy Lane for Saturday; maybe my opinions are clouded by the fact that he ran no sort of race in the Irish National last year [I could say same about Chelsea Harbour, admittedly] although I accept that came soon after Cheltenham etc...he's clearly running to good marks but his last two runs were in fields of 7 and 5 - I just think the price is excessively short and I won't be going near him.

If Ruby doesn't pick Snowy Morning then I would suggest that one hasn't a hope and clearly hasn't been well in himself.

Point Barrow has not had a National winning campaign. Looking exposed or just not at his best this season.

Don't be surprised if Baily Breeze runs a strong race - and travels well for a long time. One of the better outsiders.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Mar 30 2008, 07:45 PM
I'm pretty sure Freddie was much shorter one year in the 1960s and Red Rum was pretty short one year too.
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Red Rum was never that short, but Freddie went off at 7/2 and 11/4 in successive years.

Edit: Apologies ~ Red Rum started 7/2 the year L'Escargot beat him. His full SP's for the years he ran were 9/1 11/1 7/2 10/1 & 9/1.
 
Cheers Rory. I remember getting my dad to put 6d ew on Freddie for me. If it had won I'd have got something like 2/8 (two shillings and eightpence for the younger crowd, or 13p in new money) back, but that would've been a couple of weeks' pocket money to me and it was very exciting!

Perhaps the oul' yins (like Headstrong or Kathy :) ) can confirm you could probably have got a couple of pints of beer for that kind of money in the mid-60s.
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Mar 31 2008, 07:50 AM
Ordinary bitter 1s.2p., special 1s.3p., scrumpy 11p around 1962. :shy: :(
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1s/2d, 1s/3d, 11d respectively and respectfully, old man.

When I started drinking (about 1972/1973) it was about 12p (new pence, nearly half a crown) for a pint and the punters were complaining then!

It must be at least six months since I bought a pint of beer in a pub. I baulk at paying £3 for chemical pish when I can get a lovely German brew for about 65p in Lidl which I can then enjoy in the privacy and comfort of my own humble adobe abode.

My libation of choice nowadays in the pub is a fresh orange juice in a pint glass, topped up with fresh tapwater. Unless someone else is buying, of course...
 
Whats the thinking on the theory that you can mark a line at 11st and the winner will below it? I think that the race has sort of changed in the last few years, and that theres a better class of horse running in it. Does that make sense?!?!! I also feel that there is a great weight carrying performance in it, but cant get away from the thought there the winner will be light enough weighted.

For the record, im on Cloudy lane ante post, and will have a bet on Hedgehunter, more place than win, but a few quid non the less. I think the old boy will go close again.
 
I`m gonna use the scatter gun approach this year mainly because i usually have a couple that tip up at the first.

I`m already on Chelsea Harbour @ 19s and Point Barrow at 26s.
 
The 11st rule has proved succesful most of the time, but it's too arbitrary for me; it doesn't make any sense why it should be 11st except that 11st is usually near the middle of the weights.

A more logical rule for me would be taking the midpoint of the weights and disregarding those above it. For example, when Hedgehunter beat the 11st stat (by a whole pound), it was notable the the bottom-weight was a relatively high 10-5. This probably wouldn't allow you to rule out quite as many horses though.
 
Thanks, DO, for sharing your ratings.

In order to help interpret them it would be useful to know whether, like the official ratings, they already allow for an "Aintree factor", and perhaps a "marathon distance factor"?

If not, would you agree that the best way to use your ratings is to:

- discard horses falling below your norm, on the grounds that they will lack the necessary class for the race even if suited to it in every other way;

- take the ratings of horses with previous experience in the race, or perhaps even previous course experience, at face value;

- deduct some points from those horses without course experience and further points from those for whom the trip is a doubt.
 
nap of the race is that the pony chelsea native will not complete the course, poor delibrate jumper and too small for this job. cloudy lane has the perfect profile for the race. in all the years i have watched nationals, the one will the perfect profile NEVER wins. i think the winner will be priced between 20/1 and 50/1 and now it is a matter of sorting the wheat from the chaff. of those heading the market Simon is the one I would keep on my side.
 
These ratings are different from my usual ones because of the unusual nature of the race. When adjusting the ratings to 12-0, instead of 1 point per pound, I allow 1½pts per pound because the extra energy required to jump the fences and stay the extended trip is unlike in races at shorter distances or on other courses.

Much has been said about the importance of carrying a manageable weight. As a ball-park figure, 11-0 has been mentioned but obviously the less weight the better.

I've been experimenting with my revised ratings for this race for three or four years and every year the revised ratings out-perform the normal ones.

So, to answer your first question, yes, the course and distance are factored in, though not in the sense that a horse with good course form will have any bonus points or anything like that. If it is the case that a horse does perform best here that will already be accounted for in my master rating for it. None of last year's placed horses make the list of possible winners because the handicapper has already effectively imposed a course-form penalty.

Beyond that, I am happy to leave it up to the individual to decide whether to consider other factors. I backed my top six last year plus Point Barrow. I think if you check the odds tables, you'll find quite a few at 20/1 and under that don't make the list of possible winners therefore there has to be some value in the others.
 
Thanks, DO.

Your scale of 1.5 rather than 1 lb per length for the purposes of this race also explains, then, why your ratings appear to be higher than the official and Racing Post ratings.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Mar 31 2008, 07:45 AM
Perhaps the oul' yins (like Headstrong or Kathy :) ) can confirm you could probably have got a couple of pints of beer for that kind of money in the mid-60s.
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I'm old enough - just about! - to be Kathy's mum, I should think!
I didn't drink beer back in the day... don't drink it now come to that, I've always been a whitewino
But I'm old enough to remember Fred Winter riding in the GN, let alone training a couple of winners, And Crisp
cry
 
I've now stripped out the non-runners from those on the list at 176 and above.

Cloudy Lane 192.5 p
Milan Deux Mille 181.5
Tumbling Dice 181
Comply Or Die 180.5
L’Ami 179.5
Snowy Morning 179.5 (187.5?)
Kelami 179.5
Ardaghey 179.5
Ossmoses 179
Hedgehunter 177.5
Bob Hall 177.5 t
Mon Mome 177.5
Cornish Sett 177
Simon 176.5 p
Joacci 176.5 ?
Baily Breeze 176.5
Idle Talk 176.5
Naunton Brook 176

Cloudy Lane still strikes me as the most likely-looking winner of a National in advance since Mr Frisk. People will point to his two failures at 3m4f and 3m5f at Haydock and Fairyhouse respectively. The going at Haydock was hock deep and I could never condemn any horse's stamina when it encounters ground like that. The Fairyhouse race came soon after his win at Cheltenham and I'd proffer the likelihood that he bounced that day rather than failed for stamina. He had been noted staying on strongly at Cheltenham and again in his last couple fo races this season.

Milan Deux Mille has serious negatives in terms of age and stamina.

Tumbling Dice strikes me as an unlikely stayer.

Comply Or Die ticks pretty much all the right boxes.

L'Ami failed here last year when well handicapped and McCoy deserts him.

Snowy Morning's fine show against Denman last year still could be the key to this race but he's not exactly sparkled - yet he's been posting decent figures - and it's a worry that Ruby is deserting him. Still, I'm already on and could be tempted again at the current odds.

Kelami is in the same category as L'Ami.

Ardaghey is probably worth a punt at 100/1 or more from a handicapping perspective alone.

Ossmoses might not make the cut but carried some of my money before and could do so again.

Bob Hall looks a doubtful stayer and could do a 'Clan Royal' by running prominently but not quite getting home.

Simon looks a solid choice for those that fancy him. I was on him last year and he looks a better horse this time around. I will be backing him.

The others might just not be quite good enough if those above them show their form but place possiblities are strong.
 
Thanks for that DO, very informative and helpful

Most bookies pay to five places on the race from declarations, and considering so few can be seriously entertained, it should be poss to make money. I'm already on Simon W&P tho his weighty worries me; and I've got a small W & a slightly bigger P on Philson Run in the hope he makes the cut, and an even smaller bit on Slim Pickings. There are a couple of others I fancy, one in particular, but I'm waiting for jockey bookings and ground before I put any more on [or lay anything off]

Irrc it's a long time since a favourite has won the GN - Papillon? - and not that many ever have.
I'd like CL if he hadn't twice failed at 3.5 miles; but I hope others keep on backing him :D
 
Cloudy Lane looks certain to be favourite for Saturday's Grand National at Aintree but debate continues to rage on what his starting price will be.

William Hill have priced up the odds on Cloudy Lane’s SP, and make it 13/8 favourite that he will start between 9/2 and 5/1, and 14/1 to start 10/3 or less, a price that will see him be the shortest Grand National favourite since Red Rum in 1975, where he went off at 7/2.

Kate Miller, Spokeswoman for Hills, said: "This is the hottest favourite there has been in my lifetime, and looking at our field book it seems that every punter in the land is already on! If the general public joins in with him on Saturday, conditions will be worse than 'Cloudy' for the bookies, it'll be tsunami season."

However, Betfair are predicting that Cloudy Lane will not start shorter than 5/1 on their exchange, despite the fact that he appears to hold all the aces in the race.

He is currently trading as the 6/1 favourite on Betfair and, despite some claiming that the horse could go off at less than 4/1 on the industry SP on Saturday, the exchange believe that he will return at 5/1 or bigger at Betfair SP.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin commented: "I shall be very surprised indeed if some bookmaker predictions of Cloudy Lane starting at 4/1 or shorter come true – in fact, I think 5/1 would be the shortest price he will go off.

"You have to remember that the majority of on-course books will have no liabilities coming into the day-of-race market. And let’s not forget the trading element, too - which I believe many have.

"Cloudy Lane has been backed at a high of 259/1 on Betfair, and £260,000 of the £1.24m currently traded on our ante-post market has been around the horse.

"I’d say there will be a lot of Cloudy Lane punters with big prices out there looking to ‘green up’ - that is to ensure a no-lose book at the minimum by laying the horse back at a reduced price - come Saturday. And that will ensure the price will not get as ridiculous as some think.

"I predict the Betfair SP will be at least 5-1, and no shorter."

1545: Totesport have opened up a special Irish-trained Grand National market and make Slim Pickings their 10/3 favourite ahead of 5/1 shot Chelsea Harbour.

The firm go 5-6 about the winner carrying 11 stone or more, and it is the same price for the winner to shoulder less than 11 stone.

Spokesman Damian Walker said: "In the last 10 years only Hedgehunter has carried 11 stone or more to victory, so punters who follow the Grand National trends may be tempted by our 5/6 quote about this year’s winner carrying less than 11 stone."

Irish-trained Grand National, totesport bet: 10/3 Slim Pickings, 5 Chelsea Harbour, 11/2 Hedgehunter, 6 Snowy Morning, 13/2 King John’s Castle, 7 Point Barrow, 8 Dun Doire, 12 Baily Breeze, 14 Black Apalachi, 16 Newbay Prop, 25 Hi Cloy, No Full, Tumbling Dice, 28 Livingstone Bramble, 33 Merderka, Native Jack, 40 Beantown, Wonderkid, In The High Grass, 66 Glennfinn Captain, 100 Secretof Shambhala. Each-way ¼ 1, 2, 3 (unless 16 or more run).

1505: Cloudy Lane has been cut to 5/1 from 6/1 by totesport following strong support today for Donald McCain's Grand National hope.
 
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