Grand National

DukeofMarmalade said:
Pretty much everything; the fences, the trainer, the jockey, the horses form etc. Plus did he really not like it last time? I was on him and thought he was travelling really well before he came down.

I'd be more concerned about the ground being too fast, his age and top weight than I would he last run here;)
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Duke, I concur - thought Tidal was out of his comfort zone last time, too far out of his ground, but things can turn around. Regards your concerns - ground not allowed to ride quicker than gd/gd 2 sft evermore / his age won't matter/well in at weights. Way race rides now you need to be near off front rank all the way, he wont do that.

We all know Long Run/Mombeg can't jump - French horses have bad habit of jumping lower, bcos in France the fences look big, but they can brush through and get away with it. As Aintree now has blow-dried french fences, perhaps dodgy jumpers can get away with it.
For those two I guess your fate will be known at the 1st or 3rd fence.
 
Monbeg Dude was the last one to come off my shortlist. His jumping is less of a concern to me than his running style. By picking them off from the back,he will need everything to go right.

Amberleigh House was the last to do it and that was only because the front three cut each others throats, as has been alluded to above.
 
agree, the bear. it's easy to underestimate the speed needed to win a national as well as stamina. its different from a welsh or a midlands national in the way that the horses up front dont get stuck in the mud, plus its a classy race these days, having said that i couldn't have a dodgy jumper any way, so bye bye tidal bay, monbeg and long run. tho it's ironic that red marauder was the worst jumper in his national and only won coz every other fecker fell :lol:
 
istabraqfromneigh said:
agree, the bear. it's easy to underestimate the speed needed to win a national as well as stamina. its different from a welsh or a midlands national in the way that the horses up front dont get stuck in the mud, plus its a classy race these days, having said that i couldn't have a dodgy jumper any way, so bye bye tidal bay, monbeg and long run. tho it's ironic that red marauder was the worst jumper in his national and only won coz every other fecker fell :lol:
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My advice is never to be put off by a dodgy jumper.

Maori Venture, Rhyme N Reason, Last Suspect and even Aurora's Encore (I read somewhere he defied a trend regarding career falls) had dodgy jumping histories.

Sometimes this test makes them rise to the occasion (pun intended).

This race goes to something with the right blend of speed and stamina which also happens to be under-rated by the handicapper.
 
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I see in today's Weekender that Nick Mordin, who was so sure of his system for finding the winner, has ditched it after last year's result.

He now says you need a dodgy jumper who stays all day. And it's not April 1st...
 
Given McCoy's recent choices at Cheltenham perhaps we should be Hoovering up the nice prices on Colbert Station.
 
Another novelty market - SP of the Winner:

Under 16/1 6/4
16/1 - 33/1 6/4
over 33/1 2/1

Under 16/1 obviously contains the more fancied runners but you only need 6 to go off at 14/1 to make the bet value if my maths is correct? Last years under 16/1 bracket was:

11/2f
8/1 (Walsh ridden)
10/1
11/1
11/1
12/1 (McCoy ridden)
12/1

Dutching those would've given about a 4/9 shot. Granted the National market is not necessarily a balanced view point for this type of bet but if anything the obligatory shortening of all horses from the show onwards works in your favour with this bet.

The year before it was:

8/1jf
8/1jf
10/1 (McCoy)
12/1
14/1
14/1

So still a 10/11 shot dutched.

The market currently has 6 at worst prices and 1 at best prices at 14/1 or lower and whilst I expect the market will be 10 or 12/1 the field on Saturday morning I expect the number of horses under 16/1 to be at least 6 or 7 at the off, including the favourite, McCoy's selection, Pricewise main selection (?) and whatever the on the show gamble is....

As an aside it wouldn't have won on either the last 2 years, but you would've had a decent run for your money.
 
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