Grand National

Grasshopper said:
McCoy confirmed for 77, and whilst there's a bit of 16/1 in the village, the horse is now a general 14/1 and pushing second-favouritism.
Click to expand...

How you going to play it now Grassy? I can't decide what to do because I fancy the horse to run a big race.
 
TheBear said:
How you going to play it now Grassy? I can't decide what to do because I fancy the horse to run a big race.
Click to expand...

As per previous, 9/1 is the notional break-point for pushing the button......but I might instead chance an IR lay at half that price......or let the full-whack ride.......probably dependent on how dull a caning I get today/tomorrow! :)
 
Sporting the only outfit still holding at 16's. Double Seven now a 4/1 chance in Fave market (Bar is well, well on).

Operation Avalanche is now in full swing.
 
Last edited:
Grasshopper said:
As per previous, 9/1 is the notional break-point for pushing the button......but I might instead chance an IR lay at half that price......or let the full-whack ride.......probably dependent on how dull a caning I get today/tomorrow! :)
Click to expand...

I'm not that brave! I'll definitely leave it for the time being and keep a close eye on BF. 9/1 seems optimistic though! Hopefully I'll be in a position where I can lay off to fund my other bets in the race if 77 gets beat, still with a nice profit if it wins
 
Forgive my novice like experience of Betfair but I am slightly concerned that I will now be laying 77 in a different market to that I backed it in (Antepost). Normally Betfair allows you to lay the same selection without having the funds in your account to cover it because obviously you will have the funds from backing it.

However, will Betfair still allow me to do this now that I will be laying in a different market?

I've been going through different scenarios in my head such as withdrawals but am only confusing myself.
 
TheBear said:
However, will Betfair still allow me to do this now that I will be laying in a different market?

I've been going through different scenarios in my head such as withdrawals but am only confusing myself.
Click to expand...

No, Bear. It is a different market. If you want to lay it off you would need to deposit (or already have) enough to cover it.
 
Yes, I've just had a lengthy chat with a BF robot and got the same disappointing answer. I know this is not going to change but is there any scenario where I would have to pay out because of the different conditions of each market. I can't think of one.
 
Steve T said:
Another novelty market - SP of the Winner:

Under 16/1 6/4
16/1 - 33/1 6/4
over 33/1 2/1

Under 16/1 obviously contains the more fancied runners but you only need 6 to go off at 14/1 to make the bet value if my maths is correct? Last years under 16/1 bracket was:

11/2f
8/1 (Walsh ridden)
10/1
11/1
11/1
12/1 (McCoy ridden)
12/1

Dutching those would've given about a 4/9 shot. Granted the National market is not necessarily a balanced view point for this type of bet but if anything the obligatory shortening of all horses from the show onwards works in your favour with this bet.

The year before it was:

8/1jf
8/1jf
10/1 (McCoy)
12/1
14/1
14/1

So still a 10/11 shot dutched.

The market currently has 6 at worst prices and 1 at best prices at 14/1 or lower and whilst I expect the market will be 10 or 12/1 the field on Saturday morning I expect the number of horses under 16/1 to be at least 6 or 7 at the off, including the favourite, McCoy's selection, Pricewise main selection (?) and whatever the on the show gamble is....

As an aside it wouldn't have won on either the last 2 years, but you would've had a decent run for your money.
Click to expand...

Bet365 offer 7/4 about this, horses at the front of the market shortening all the time.
 
Looks more of a reflection of the huge overround for the ones at the head of the market that happens each year. To work out if it's worth a punt I think you'd need to group the unders for past 10 years say and work out how many times the unders actually won. Would give a better view in my opinion although working with obvious limited sample size.
 
Think I've got the tricast covered.
1st - Pineau De Re
2nd - Chance Du Roy
3rd - Teaforthree

Come on then. Stick your 3 up.
 
Steve T said:
Bet365 offer 7/4 about this, horses at the front of the market shortening all the time.
Click to expand...

Steve T said:
Another novelty market - SP of the Winner:

Under 16/1 6/4
16/1 - 33/1 6/4
over 33/1 2/1

Under 16/1 obviously contains the more fancied runners but you only need 6 to go off at 14/1 to make the bet value if my maths is correct? Last years under 16/1 bracket was:

11/2f
8/1 (Walsh ridden)
10/1
11/1
11/1
12/1 (McCoy ridden)
12/1

Dutching those would've given about a 4/9 shot. Granted the National market is not necessarily a balanced view point for this type of bet but if anything the obligatory shortening of all horses from the show onwards works in your favour with this bet.

The year before it was:

8/1jf
8/1jf
10/1 (McCoy)
12/1
14/1
14/1

So still a 10/11 shot dutched.

The market currently has 6 at worst prices and 1 at best prices at 14/1 or lower and whilst I expect the market will be 10 or 12/1 the field on Saturday morning I expect the number of horses under 16/1 to be at least 6 or 7 at the off, including the favourite, McCoy's selection, Pricewise main selection (?) and whatever the on the show gamble is....

As an aside it wouldn't have won on either the last 2 years, but you would've had a decent run for your money.
Click to expand...

davids2009 said:
Looks more of a reflection of the huge overround for the ones at the head of the market that happens each year. To work out if it's worth a punt I think you'd need to group the unders for past 10 years say and work out how many times the unders actually won. Would give a better view in my opinion although working with obvious limited sample size.
Click to expand...

Ok, results since 2014:

2004 6 qualifiers under 16/1, roughly 10/11 dutched, placings in the first four 2nd, LOST
2005 4, 5/4, 1st, WON
2006 6, 4/9, 1st 2nd 3rd, WON
2007 8, 2/5, 2nd, LOST
2008 7, 1/2, 1st 4th, WON
2009 7, 4/7, 2nd 3rd 4th, LOST
2010 7, 10/11, 1st 2nd 4th, WON
2011 8, 1/2, 1st 2nd 3rd, WON
2012 6, 10/11, 3rd, LOST
2013 7, 4/9, 2nd 3rd, LOST

So 10 races, 5 wins, 5 losses, only 1 dutch above evens(though Betfair SP would probably be a more accurate way to dutch them, effectively the lay dutch price), only once failed to have the runner up when not having the winner.

With Bet365 having the standout price at 7/4 I think placing e/w bets on higher priced horses and placing the returned half stake at 7/4 under 16/1 gives plenty of bullets for a profitable race.
 
Last edited:
Prince De Beauchene
Chance Du Roy
Teaforthree

I won't be backing Teaforthree but it's hard to see him out of the places. Double Seven will also be running for me in some capacity but I'll probably lay off most of his profit. I've also got my eye on Alvarado but like Monbeg Dude he will need a lot of luck in running.
 
Alvarado
Soll - if he can get in
The Rainbow Hunter

Programme on last night after the Jockey School one where Rebecca Curtis talking about how she looks after the horses and Teaforthree heavily featured. Fabulous looking horse. Couple of really interesting snippets as well to the camera, from Bob Champion and Marcus Armytage.
 
G-G said:
Alvarado
Soll - if he can get in
The Rainbow Hunter

Programme on last night after the Jockey School one where Rebecca Curtis talking about how she looks after the horses and Teaforthree heavily featured. Fabulous looking horse. Couple of really interesting snippets as well to the camera, from Bob Champion and Marcus Armytage.
Click to expand...


Looks like Soll goes in the Topham today, GG.
 
So who is going to be the annual raceday market move tomorrow folks?
Shakalakaboomboom will no doubt be backed and I can see money for Walkon aswel

Have a feeling Long Run will go off fav.
 
Last edited:
TeaForThree even if I'm not fully convinced he's got the finishing kick to win it. Rock solid e/w bet at 12.5

Prince De Beauchene for me is really well handicapped and is massive value at 28.0

Rocky Creek looks a big player and potentially is open to huge improvement. Very backable price too at 22.0.

Honourable mention to Balthazar King if the Cross Country at Cheltenham hasn't left it's mark. 20.0

Good luck to all:cool:
 
Back
Top