Grand National

PRICEWISE2008 said:
TeaForThree even if I'm not fully convinced he's got the finishing kick to win it. Rock solid e/w bet at 12.5

Prince De Beauchene for me is really well handicapped and is massive value at 28.0

Rocky Creek looks a big player and potentially is open to huge improvement. Very backable price too at 22.0.

Honourable mention to Balthazar King if the Cross Country at Cheltenham hasn't left it's mark. 20.0

Good luck to all:cool:
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I think Balthazar King's chance has gone with the weather forecast. Its going to **** it down tomorrow
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think it is. Any rain should be very light.
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I hope you're right. My cursor is hovering over the lay button for dbl 7. That one really doesn't want it to get any softer and I should not get too greedy!

The question is will the general public take this into account or are they going to back McCoy regardless.
 
just took advantage of the bet365 offer :)

not sure if they have been posted earlier in the thread but the full details are

Grand National Money Back Offer





Bet Now



The Grand National takes place on Saturday 5th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for each-way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.

All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 3rd April and midday on Saturday 5th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every each-way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125* per customer.

To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.

To qualify for this offer, you must be an existing bet365 account holder and have opened your account before 23:59 on Wednesday 2nd April 2014.

To add to the unbeatable value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.

That’s not all! These great offers will apply throughout the three day meeting, which gets underway on Thursday 3rd April:

bet365 Price Promise
​
We will constantly update our prices to ensure that we are best price on every horse for all races shown live on Channel 4.

This applies to all bets placed from 10am each day when a race is being shown live on Channel 4. Best price or joint best price will be matched from the following list of Bookmakers - Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral, Totesport and Boylesports. Best Odds Guaranteed still applies. Excludes ante-post prices.

So place your bets safe in the knowledge that the bet365 price is the best price.

Channel 4/1 Offer
Our Channel 4/1 Offer will also apply, so back any single winner at 4/1 or more on a race televised live on Channel 4 and you can have a risk free bet to the same stake on the next live Channel 4 race.

If your risk free bet wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a risk free bet on the next live Channel 4 race. Keep backing those winners and we'll keep giving you risk free bets.

Best Odds Guaranteed
Best Odds Guaranteed is available on every horse race, every day – so when you place your bet, take the price on your selection and if the SP is bigger we will pay you out at the bigger odds!

With enhanced place terms also being offered on selected races throughout the three days, bet365 is the best place to enjoy this year’s Grand National meeting from Aintree.

The offer is on the homepage
 
the b365 offer is great. you get the cashback instantly after placing the e/w bet.

teaforthree (win only), alvarado, chance du roy & big shu running for me atm.
 
JamesRB said:
the b365 offer is great.
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So, how are you fella's playing this?

Three options as I see it.
1) Back a horse you fancy and let it all ride, hoping for the best? (You'll get half your stake back, of course).
2) Lay the Win part of your E/W bet, and thus have a free Place bet?
3) Lay the Win and Place parts and get just the half-stake back?

Which of these three approaches are yiz taking, please?.
 
originally started looking at the national field to find something in with a chance... now im looking for something without one, ive got more of a long list than a short one. ive backed burton port mainly, and a few for peanuts at big odds for fun. usually i know what horses im going to back for months, but last year going back on the form after the race i kicked myself for not reading up again on the day and noticing how well in the winner was now in his favoured conditions, so im going in again, going through the race fresh, without preconceptions.

mission not complete yet, but the first thing i noticed was that there is logic to tea for three being so short, he's well handicapped on last years race and without the hard races he had last year. he's been trained for this race and no other. but for me this years race is much stronger, he'll run his race but i see him coming 4th or 5th. the other thing is... do we take alvarado's cheltenham win at face value? because if we do he has a hell of a chance, he ran 2lb out the weights that day and had a welsh, scottish and midland national winner along with the kim muir winner, and an undercooked burton port behind him, and he is now only 7lb higher. he has had an easy season since then, obviously not ideal he was pulled up his only run since, but was unsuitable ground and possible that run is best forgiven. must rate a decent bet at 33s ? thoughts??
 
icebreaker said:
So, how are you fella's playing this?

Three options as I see it.
1) Back a horse you fancy and let it all ride, hoping for the best? (You'll get half your stake back, of course).
2) Lay the Win part of your E/W bet, and thus have a free Place bet?
3) Lay the Win and Place parts and get just the half-stake back?

Which of these three approaches are yiz taking, please?.
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Just ride it FFS. How much more edge do you ******* need!!!!
 
SlimChance said:
Just ride it FFS.
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That's just gambling -- and not my style nowadays.
A guaranteed risk-free return is better than any edge. No "variance" in a guaranteed return. :ninja:

I was considering Option 2 for a while, but have now settled for definite on Option 3. Thus, depending on how close an arb(s) there is in the morning, the return will be a near-to €125 for no risk.

I was interested in how others on here intended to approach it. But few are willing to show their hand.
 
TheBear said:
I think Balthazar King's chance has gone with the weather forecast. Its going to **** it down tomorrow
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Horses with wins over 3 miles on Soft or worse going (that follow the trends I have found) are...
Colbert Station - 3m Heavy
Wayward Prince - 3m 1f Soft
Across The Bay - 3m 4f Heavy
Monbeg Dude - 3m 6f Heavy
Chance Du Roy - 3m 2f Soft
Golan Way - 3m 2f Soft
Raz De Maree - 3m 4f Soft
Mr Moonshine - 3m 2f Soft
Big Shu - 4m 1f Heavy
Burton Port - 3m 1f Soft
Hawkes Point - 3m Heavy

The trends that I found are...
Last 9 winners aged 9-11.
Last 14 winners carried weights from 10-03 to 11-06.
Last 20 winners ran within the previous 55 days.
Last 20 winners were officially rated from 136-157.
Last 20 winners had previously won a Chase with an officially rating in the range 122-162.

Good luck!
 
icebreaker said:
That's just gambling -- and not my style nowadays.
A guaranteed risk-free return is better than any edge. No "variance" in a guaranteed return. :ninja:

I was considering Option 2 for a while, but have now settled for definite on Option 3. Thus, depending on how close an arb(s) there is in the morning, the return will be a near-to €125 for no risk.

I was interested in how others on here intended to approach it. But few are willing to show their hand.
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Few have a 365 account!!!!

I'd be doing e/w Lucky 15s on the extra place races and bad e/w. I'd rather lose €500 trying to win €8k+ then guarantee €125.
 
It's boring but teaforthree is perfect for this. Hard to think of many past horses that tick so many boxes. Only concern is whether gc took a bit out but otherwise a worthy winner
 
3 against the field;
Balthazar King, less headstrong this year hence string of wins.
Trio D'Alene, jumps well, travels well-hopefully he stays.
Teaforthree, has the credentials.

The first 2 might be lay in running opportunities.
 
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Going in four pronged today
Tidal Bay
Long Run
D7
Tea for three
Even if I don't win a dime off the race it doesn't really matter
The last 2 days punting have been the best iv'e had for a couple of years.
 
fonz said:
Even if I don't win a dime off the race it doesn't really matter
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I'm not expecting to find the winner of the big one today. It is by far the tightest renewal I've ever rated. I could back 20 and not be confident of finding the winner.

But it's a huge day for the family. We're all congregating at the brother's for a big do and rip the pish out of each other win or lose. :lol:
 
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