Hennessy

mrussell said:
A quick one for Form students:

What chance An Accordion:

1. laugh & move on.
2. slim to none
3. we-e-e-lllll, at that price, maybe a place ... or not
4. that stable's quite capable of having him ready - good e/w bet (Ladbrokes 33, betdaQ 83 (Betfair down at present.)
?
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Funny you should mention An Accordion.

I had an email from an owner of a horse (something to do with Narrowing the Field) and in his email he also mentioned An Accordion for the Hennessy. Not a horse I would have thought of before but if you ignore his one run last season he may have an E/W squeak? Winner at the festival and in theory could still be on the upgrade?

You would be taking a bit of stab in the dark with this one but as point 4 from mrussell points out "stable quite capable of having him ready".

The guy that emailed me has him at 200 on BF...
 
Casey Jones withdrawn this morning due to vetinary advice! That's my e/w bet gone. I think i'll look to War of Attrition now at 33/1 for some value. I was talking to Mouse Morris yesterday at Thurles and he reckons he has a right chance at the weight!
 
I'm weighing in with Joe Lively and Kornati Kid. The latter traded at 160 on Wednesday which was madness and even at around 40 (or e/w at 33/1) makes plenty of longshot appeal. You can happily poke holes in the former but he won the Cotswold Chase last season, took a graded Novices' Chase here and is trading at 65 on the machine. Tempting enough for me.
 
From Sporting Life

TIMEFORM: DENMAN HAS IT ALL TO DO Denman trades at just over 4-1 on Betfair for the Hennessy - but Timeform believe that he may have to run a career best to win at Newbury.
The 2008 Gold Cup winner ran to a mark of 176p when winning this race two years ago, and only the mighty Burrough Hill Lad has surpassed that Hennessy effort in recent decades.
But even a repeat of that win, or his Cheltenham victory, could still see him struggle to justify favouritism on Saturday
Kieran Packman, Timeform's Communications Manager, commented "Since the days of Arkle, only Burrough Hill Lad's performance in 1984 would surpass Denman's effort in winning the Hennessy so authoritatively from an official mark of 161 two years ago.
"As far as we're concerned, he'll need to run to a similar level (which was close in ratings terms to his Gold Cup victory) if he's to defy a 13lb higher mark this time around.
"Interestingly, another previous winner, State Of Play, also appeals as well-treated as he bids to repeat his 2006 victory. Second-season chaser Gone To Lunch is the other contender who looks on a fair mark, judged on his Scottish National second last term."

To win the Hennessy - Betfair bet: 4-1 Denman, 6-1 Barbers Shop, 8-1 What A Friend, 17-2 Killyglen, 9-1 Cappa Bleu, 17-1 State Of Play, 18-1 Ballyfitz, 21-1 Gone To Lunch, 27-1 Snowy Morning, 31-1 Nenuphar Collonges, 332-1 Kornati Kid, 35-1 My Will, War Of Attrition, 41-1 An Accordion, 49-1 Offshore Account, 54-1 Joe Lively, 59-1 New Alco, 69-1 Niche Market, 79-1 Mon Mome, 119-1 Chelsea Harbour.

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings: 188 State Of Play, Gone To Lunch, 187 Casey Jones, 184+ Denman, 184 Offshore Account, Snowy Morning, Joe Lively, 183x Chelsea Harbour, 182+ What A Friend, Barbers Shop, 182 Niche Market.
 
Seems about right. If Denman can hit what he ran to when he won it he should still win though, despite being 13lb higher in the weights.

On paper Barber's Shop looks good. Henderson says he'll have to nearly win it if he's a Grade 1 horse, but he doesn't sound confident. Talks about him needing to operate in a comfort zone that he may well not get in the Hennessy.
 
kornati kid for me still on the upgrade and most of his races from last have turned out to be very good pieces of form
 
rorydelargy said:
I'm weighing in with Joe Lively and Kornati Kid. The latter traded at 160 on Wednesday which was madness and even at around 40 (or e/w at 33/1) makes plenty of longshot appeal. You can happily poke holes in the former but he won the Cotswold Chase last season, took a graded Novices' Chase here and is trading at 65 on the machine. Tempting enough for me.
Click to expand...

I've also backed those two and added My Will.
 
Sorry for the poor quality of my posting.Yesterday was hectic.Day started at 4.00.stressful work then long drive to London for champagne reception.
Looking at the post am a tad concerned about some of the tosh I might have spouted.:o
 
I'm reasonably surprised that so many people have said they fancy Barbers Shop - so far as I'm concerned he's a rogue not to be trusted and I couldn't possibly back him with stolen.
 
Has won over 3 miles at Sandown, I don't think stamina will be that much of an issue. He has a touch of class, conditions are in his favour and he is the right age for this race

He will carry my money tomorrow
 
These are how my figures pan out so far.

(Norm 188+)

My Will 191?
Gone To Lunch 187
Joe Lively 186?
Barbers Shop 186
Denman 185+
War Of Attrition 185
Ballyfitz 184+
State Of Play 184 (195e)
An Accordion 182
Nenuphar Collonges 181
What A Friend 179+
Kornati Kid 179(+?)
Niche Market 179
Killyglen 178+p
Snowy Morning 178 (++)
Chelsea Harbour 176 (++) d
Mon Mome 175 +
Cappa Bleu 166 +
Offshore Account ? (184e)

You really need something that will at the very least hit the norm. Last year I wrote:

(Norm 172)

Royal County Star 174
Big Buck’s 172+p
Madison Du Berlais 172
Knowhere 170
Snoopy Loopy 170p
My Will 170?
Monkerhostin 169
Character Building 169+
Air Force One 168+p
Oedipe 167p
Albertas Run 166+
Slim Pickings 166
Island Flyer 165p
Verasi 163+
Dear Villez 162+p
High Chimes 162+p
Always Waining 159

The Hennessy, for my money, is still the pre-Christmas highlight of the new jumps season. The form is usually top notch and the race could point us in the direction of big winners later in the season. Most punters are now clued up about what it takes to win one of these big early handicaps: something that will be contesting the championship races later in the season yet which gets in off a generous mark. Even Denman’s top weight proved generous, and Trabolgan defied a high rating not so long ago. Second-season chasers are probably the most likely to fit the bill and I’d want to concentrate on those in spite of Royal County Star’s being handicapped to win. Big Buck’s, Air Force One, Oedipe, Alberta’s Run, Dear Villez and High Chimes are those most likely to find the most improvement, with preference for the first-named. I’ll also be having a bet on Royal County Star in case he’s improved over the summer too.
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I’ll leave you to imagine how black and blue I was from self-flagellation after letting Madison Du Berlais go unbacked last year.

I still favour the unexposed second season chaser but anything already proven to have good enough older form will carry money at likely long odds.

My Will is rated on his Gold Cup form, which itself is rated on the beaten horses having run to their best form in defeat. That might prove to be the wrong interpretation of the form but it’s my belief that it really was an incredibly hot Gold Cup. My Will will be a bet.

Of those rated less than the norm, I won’t be backing anything that doesn’t have at least a ‘+’. That eliminates some well fancied ones.

It struck me last season that State Of Play wasn’t itself. I thought it was being trained for the Grand National and the weight of money for it leading up to the race convinced me it was. I thought it got a bad ride, I have to say, but it may be that it was just unlucky in the circumstances of such a race. It certainly lost an awful lot of ground for no apparent reason (to my eyes but the form book says it was hampered) before scooting up to just behind the leaders and looking a possible winner two out before understandably failing to find any more on the run-in. If he’s anywhere his best form he has a major chance and is a must best.

Killyglen would strike me as an ideal type were it not for his tendency to make mistakes. He’s not obviously well handicapped but second season chasers tend to make abnormal improvement for their break. His Aintree form was boosted by Shining Gale last week. He had been only 12/1 for the RSA but put in a few early errors which ended his chance but his Aintree rating would have put him in third place at Cheltenham, which in turn would give him decent prospects of beating Carruthers (fourth there), Casey Jones (fifth) and What A Friend (sixth), while Ballyfitz and Gone To Lunch didn’t get round either. The flatter track might be the key to him.

I rate Kornati Kid the dark horse. Like Killyglen, he’ll need to have improved over the break but I’m concerned that they bypassed the RSA in favour of the seemingly easier four-miler only to find him not staying the trip. He’s possibly not got the class or the scope for a test like this.

My money will be on My Will, State Of Play and Killyglen but I have to confess I’m shit-scared of Denman. I expect him to be at his very best, which isn’t hard to envisage being better than his previous peak, and he could well win. I just think if either My Will or State Of Play runs to their very best, or if Killyglen finds the anticipated improvement, Denman will have to settle for a place.


1. State Of Play
2. My Will
3. Killyglen
4. Denman.
 
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