Hennessy

EC1 said:
its not about 29 or 31..its about how a horse performs within a set band..ridicule all you want:)..but horses have patterns..its not all about being well in..many big handicaps are won by up to the hilt horses
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Yes, I was just funnin', as Big John Wayne said in The Searchers but I can't agree that horses already handicapped up to the hilt win big handicaps. Logic alone dictates that you cannot win a big handicap unless you are better handicapped than anything else [that runs to form].

EC1 said:
its no use having 10 in hand when you not fit..handicapping is a part of the process..not the whole caboodle..there isn't one aspect alone that gives winners..its a bigger game than that..as you well know:)
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Absolutely right. As I well know :)

I absolutely accept that Native River will probably put up a lifetime best on Saturday but it doesn't guarantee a win.

You'll maybe remember how high I went with the Novice Chase at this meeting last season when he swept past UTPT after the last. It was that race that led to my backing him for the RSA and also to UTPT in the big handicap in which he beat Holywell, the pair miles clear of a field of top handicappers.

I may have gone too high with that Newbury race to start with but the form all made sense and the time was exceptional.

But the original figure will need to have been correct for Native River to get placed on Saturday or else he'll need to have improved a bundle again this season, which I'm not prepared to rule out, but others can reasonably be expected to have improved at least as much.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Likewise HPM. He's on a similar mark as when cantering just in behind the pace when unseating in the Whitbread. What if he'd won that (for which he was very heavily backed)? He'd be seven pounds higher than here.
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Looks like I need to revise this statement...

I've just checked back through the form and am genuinely gobsmacked at the view the handicapper has taken of the Whitbread.

Traditionally one of the hottest handicaps of the season despite falling on the last day, the handicapper has clearly decided it was exactly the opposite, actually dropping the third by a pound and some of the other beaten horses by more. Yet he has chosen to raise Henri Parry Morgan by a pound for unseating four or five from home? He is clearly offering the strong opinion that HPM would have gone very close. I don't have a note of what rating The Young Master went up to for winning - it will have been in the original list of weights but I don't have that - but it couldn't have been much.

Normally a big Saturday handicap winner would go up at least 7lbs. For example, Theatre Guide went up 11lbs for winning the Betbright (admittedly by 10 lengths), Smad Place 13lbs for winning the Hennessy and UTPT 11lbs for the big one at the festival. It should be reasonable to expect the winner of as valuable and important a handicap as the Whitbread to go up at least 7lbs.

I must keep an eye on that form going forward!
 
LOl at Denman..thanks for the insight straight from horses mouth..good one

what i would like DO is for all angles to join together in looking at these races rather than one person trying to ace everyone else

after a while..any forum will set itself into one of two types..first one is a load of individuals trying to out do each other and dissing others methods angles in a pseudo macho way..or just post to ridicule certain names they have some illogicall dislike for............or...other type of forum is where people work together and forget the selfish bullying nature this type of medium can encourage..and actually benefit those that read it

on here..i expect to read informed stuff..which i do...some good stuff here//.and all the shallow nonsense i see on TV re this or that..confounded to the bin..we should be well above that sh1te in this day and age

when people work together..it can be better than sum of parts...i think a forum to be really spesh is when folk start wanting to win and so take on board whats out there..that has worth..not bolloxy nonsense spouted by folk in betting shops in the 70's..we moved on since then,,,punters need to upgrade on a regular basis re approach or logic used..being stuck in the old churned out chestnuts is just old fashioned...and sad thinking in many ways
 
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Yes. I think the kind of stat you offer can help within an appropriate context. For example, if I had Native River top rated and your stat pointed to its running to form it would make me consider it all the more seriously. Likewise if your stat suggested there were strong grounds for believing it wouldn't run to form I could allow that to sway my inclination away from it but if it was 9/1 and someone said 9/1 shots have a good record in the race that's a stat I'd completely ignore.
 
the problem with that DO..is that any one of the runners bar a few obvious throw outs..could win and get hiked up 10/12lbs..that don't narrow it for me before the race.i don't want to back 5 horses..i want in a race like this to back 2..3 max if price is right

its obvious whatever wins will go up 10 at least,,how does that possibly narrow the field by much...its easier to narrow it just by looking at won't act on ground..want the trip etc...trying to guess which one we see with 10 extra in future is long speculation for me...not short..and it doesn't reduce the field much for me personally..i could name 15 of these it would be no surprise win and get the 10 hike up

just using..now which of these look like they 10+ horses..ain't doing it for me personally..thats not to say its not a good angle..it just ain't for me on its own
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Yes. I think the kind of stat you offer can help within an appropriate context. For example, if I had Native River top rated and your stat pointed to its running to form it would make me consider it all the more seriously. Likewise if your stat suggested there were strong grounds for believing it wouldn't run to form I could allow that to sway my inclination away from it but if it was 9/1 and someone said 9/1 shots have a good record in the race that's a stat I'd completely ignore.
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but i'm not using a stat..i'm using what the horse has actually done in the past..i don't get this stat thing...i have read the horse's form and concluded it..its not a stat..its form of horse..same as what you use..but in a different way..but its not an unconnected stat to the actual horse..its form reading..but in a different way to your method of doing so

if someone even tried to tell me that 9/1 shots do well..and i actually think it were anything of use..i'd jump under a bus in despair at my own daftness..are we really at the level where we even have to use that sort of silly example..really?

you need to actually read what i post i feel..you have me down as some real dum dum when i read the 9/1 stuff..i'd never quote something like that 9/1 silliness..come on

i'm not having a go..but you seem to have decided many years ago about how to look at a race..and then written that in stone..never to develop it or slightly move from those set in stone rules

you not alone..this whole game seems to train punters to make their lifetime rules up in the first 6 months of punting..then just stick to them for 60 years

if it works..no prob..i respect what you do...but if you want to be quoting what i try to get across on here..please be aware of what that is and don't be trying to mark it down to the daftest form of race reading its possible to invent..there is more than one way in this game..and they aren't all inferior to your way
 
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Grasshopper said:
Two of my biggest ever wins have been in ante-post markets. At the risk of being accused of after-timing, I backed Al Ferof at 120+ the season he won the (now BetVictor) Gold Cup at Cheltenham, and I backed Solwhit at 80+ to win the Stayers Hurdle in 2013. Look hard enough on here, and you will find the thread about Al Ferof. The only reference to Solwhit might be an oblique selection in the Ante-Post Competition pages for that year (I took the 16/1 when he was introduced into the World Hurdle market).
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Aftertimer! As you were folks.
 
the problem is though..you not listed the hundreds of other ante post bets that lost,,so mentioning 2 winners out of hunreds isn't really making a case for backing horses that don't even turn up or lose

most ante post bettors remember the wins..but if anyone showed em a list of every ante post bet they had,,heart attack would be on agenda..imo
 
Please don't patronise me with "What about all the other ante-post bets?" flannel, until such time as you start posting recommended stakes, and a running narrative on your Level Stakes Profit, of the ones you tip on here. You can claim the moral high-ground after you do so, not before.
 
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EC1 said:
but i'm not using a stat..i'm using what the horse has actually done in the past..i don't get this stat thing...i have read the horse's form and concluded it..its not a stat..its form of horse..same as what you use..but in a different way..but its not an unconnected stat to the actual horse..its form reading..but in a different way to your method of doing so

if someone even tried to tell me that 9/1 shots do well..and i actually think it were anything of use..i'd jump under a bus in despair at my own daftness..are we really at the level where we even have to use that sort of silly example..really?

you need to actually read what i post i feel..you have me down as some real dum dum when i read the 9/1 stuff..i'd never quote something like that 9/1 silliness..come on

i'm not having a go..but you seem to have decided many years ago about how to look at a race..and then written that in stone..never to develop it or slightly move from those set in stone rules

you not alone..this whole game seems to train punters to make their lifetime rules up in the first 6 months of punting..then just stick to them for 60 years

if it works..no prob..i respect what you do...but if you want to be quoting what i try to get across on here..please be aware of what that is and don't be trying to mark it down to the daftest form of race reading its possible to invent..there is more than one way in this game..and they aren't all inferior to your way
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I'm not sure where you're getting all that from, EC1. I thought you knew me better than that. You suggest I re-read what you wrote? I suggest you re-read my posts.

I thought you were into stats/trends - your own brand - which I've said I admire and respect.

Sounds like you're not keen to view them as trends any more. You're now calling it form and I can agree with that. If a horse shows a certain level of form after a certain absence then I don't have a problem with accepting it as part of the horse's form. I often check through runners' absences or check if they have a history of following up a good run off a short break. You'll know that from my analyses. But earlier in the thread you did present NR's as a trend and a stat.

You've totally misinterpreted the 9/1 shot thing. That was a dig at the pointless stats other people dig up, Tanya style. I was backing you up!

I suspect maybe you don't read the stuff I send you. (Let me know if you want me to stop.) If you did you would see how open I am to looking at things from different angles. You would also see how my methodology has evolved over the years. It's something I refer to occasionally.

I've never suggested my way is either the best or the only way. All I have been adamant about is that a race such as the Hennessy is not won by a trend or a stat. It is won by a horse and a horse who ipso facto is exceptionally well-handicapped.

If I were as good as you seem to think I believe I am I wouldn't be on this forum. I'd have won enough ages ago to have retired to Spain and make my living out of property. I am and always will be a work in progress. Until, obviously, I hit a payday that enables me to pack it in.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Please don't patronise me with "What about all the other ante-post bets?" flannel, until such time as you start posting recommended stakes, and a running narrative on your Level Stakes Profit, of the ones you tip on here. You can claim the moral high-ground after you do so, not before.
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i'd hammer you into the ground Grass ..you not in my league...you might be a better wordmeister than I..but when it comes to tipping..its a total no contest..thats not bragging..its fact...on here its handy to ignore what someone does month in month out..if you that way inclined..as you seem to be..ask Benny and a few others what they think eh?

get over that though ..oooh and wouldn't we get on so much better eh?

jealousy is a tough one..it generates so many types of responses,,don't let it get top side of you

anyone that thinks Grassy has put more winners to losers on here than i..sign in below.

give over lad...you good at what you do..i like reading your posts...but tipping ain't your strength
 
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fair does DO/....I think we both that similar..we often cross small swords over nowt really..you are a good chap at this..i'd like to think i am...we are very similar in our thinking..overall wise i feel

don't ever take offence at owt i say..i'm as daft as a brush at times and don't always think how i come over...me and you are after same things
 
More or less exactly the reponse I expected, EC1.

I would, however, caution you against cranking-up the nasty any further, otherwise you will get tsunamid. You have needed manners putting on you for years, and the only two reasons I've never moved out of first-gear with you, is because it's irritating as fu*ck for the rest of the membership to be exposed to idiotic squabbles, and because I don't like getting into a battle of wits with an unarmed man.

Lets cease and desist now, before I say something I will ultimately regret. I don't particularly want the rest of the board to see what a horrible cu*nt I can really be, when I really put my mind to it, but I might make an exception in your case, because I've frankly had enough of your schizophrenic, arrogant bollocks.

Now kindly fu*ck-off, put me on ignore, and don't engage me directly again. If you choose otherwise, then I will consider that you have asked for it.
 
ooh dear...i'm real scared now..hang on..i'll switch computer off and go and hide under the duvee

give over chap...we don't need to be falling out over owt..all i do is call things as i see..same as you do..when i am wrong i'll throw up hands and admit it..or apologise..i'm man enough for apology..a lot of men aren't..you aren't..you have done it before...i respect that

if we talking about arrogance..then read your above post back to yourself...anyone i know thats half good at owt is arrogant..its what drives you on when others give up..arrogance is not a shameful thing..its a must if you want to move forward..some hide it and pretend not to have such traits..but anyone thats any good at owt is arrogant..its needed to keep going against the barriers that get put up to hold us back

look..i've pushed you to that post above,,that takes some doing..you have done same to me sometimes..we both forces of nature ...we put heart on sleeve and go in head first..life would be dull if we didn't get to this point

don't turn agin me...we keep stuff going when it gets dull..becasue we speak how we feel..not many men will do that..its girly in some macho minds

i like your fighting spirit chap...it reminds me of me..fookin hell thats scarey for you:)

at end of day..no one has ever made you as angry as i have on net before have they?..see..i'm good at summat:)

yep i'm a cnt sometimes..most folk are at some point imo..those that think they ain't are having themselves on
 
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you smilin now Grass aren't you now you read that diatribe..come on man..admit it:D

if you won't speak to me...who am i going to trade my Hurricane Fly cigarette pictures with in future..i'm fooked:)..got loads of them

i know i'm annoying..but along with the annoy..there might be something that makes people think..mmm..not thought of that
 
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What makes you think Native River can give weight and a beating to Henri Parry Morgan EC?

For me, Native River ran a career best and got a fantastic ride that day at Aintree.

I think the Hennessy is going back to Wales.
 
DanB88 said:
What makes you think Native River can give weight and a beating to Henri Parry Morgan EC?

For me, Native River ran a career best and got a fantastic ride that day at Aintree.

I think the Hennessy is going back to Wales.
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can't have wales takin owt after the poppy back down:)

hpm is a good horse..i backed him a bit last year..but native river is a proflie type i really like for the race..the lbs job hsn't really been a big part in the decision
 
EC1 said:
can't have wales takin owt after the poppy back down:)

hpm is a good horse..i backed him a bit last year..but native river is a proflie type i really like for the race..the lbs job hsn't really been a big part in the decision
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So what is it about the profile that you like?

The thing about HPM is that he came up through handicaps, not the norm for a chaser that looks like he'll be aiming high this year. I suppose he's a similar profile to Seeyouatmidnight. I must admit I watched him when he picked up a minor handicap at Chepstow off 122. Easiest winner at the track all year. I do think he'd have gone close in the Whitbread had he stood up even though I don't think Sandown would be his track. I think he has to be on the premises.

My view is that UTPT cannot beat Native River, based on the form in the G2 Novice at Newbury.

Vyta Du Roc is going to have to run a stone better than he ever has before, and two stone better than his season debut. It looks unlikely to me.

Blaklion is a grand old stick but I think he'll struggle out of novice company. His yard have continuously cast doubt on his prospects being a smaller more compact type. He may just be found out even though he does have the heart of a lion.

I was looking at Saphir Du Rheu a week or so ago but have dropped him. A good comeback at Ascot all things considered and trained by someone who has achieved a third generation or two with some staying chasers but I doubt whether he's capable. If he pulls out of the special runs he can take a hand.
 
DanB88 said:
My view is that UTPT cannot beat Native River, based on the form in the G2 Novice at Newbury.
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I half-suspect that might have been the best novice chase all season. UTPT set out fast as though it was off for its life and they were taking no prisoners, then Scu kicked on again on the second circuit as though to put the others to the sword but Native River clung on at a respectable distance. I have never seen any sectionals for the race but I wouldn't be surprise if UTPT was slowing up from two out, which exaggerated the visual impression of Native River's finish.

The form was not franked until UTPT took the big handicap at the festival from the proper plot that was Holywell and then Native River took the big Aintree novice, turning round the RSA form. Right good form, yet ironically their respective festival wins might make them vulnerable on Saturday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I half-suspect that might have been the best novice chase all season. UTPT set out fast as though it was off for its life and they were taking no prisoners, then Scu kicked on again on the second circuit as though to put the others to the sword but Native River clung on at a respectable distance. I have never seen any sectionals for the race but I wouldn't be surprise if UTPT was slowing up from two out, which exaggerated the visual impression of Native River's finish.

The form was not franked until UTPT took the big handicap at the festival from the proper plot that was Holywell and then Native River took the big Aintree novice, turning round the RSA form. Right good form, yet ironically their respective festival wins might make them vulnerable on Saturday.
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Completely agree with that.
 
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