July Meeting, Newmarket

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gus

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Always one of the best meetings of the year.

The talk a year or two back of it reverting to midweek seems to have been just talk but hope springs eternal. I'll start going again if it ever happens.

Anyway, on the subject of the actual racing, it's interesting to see from today's Post that Profitable is to be supplemented for the July Cup. He's been priced up at 8/1. He's only ever run once beyond the minimum trip and acquitted himself respectably when he did but I'd prefer the chances of 6f specialists like Twilight Son, Magical Memory and Quiet Reflection and so he wouldn't be for me. Limato is due to run as well, so it's a pretty deep race.

The two-year-old action at the meeting is always informative. Mehmas is 2/1 fav for the July Stakes with Windsor Castle winner, Ardad, priced at 7/2. Yalta (9/1) would interest me if the ground was decent.
 
Dry forecast for the whole week. I always thought Limato has got the ability needed to win a G1 sprint. He will have his conditions this week. 10's was very generous in my book and have been taken e/w
 
Quite early for looking at the handicaps, but here's one to watch for Friday..

BATHOS is a course and distance winner at Newmarket twice over. Performances have been hit and miss so far this season, but he's a dangerous horse to underestimate on a mark in the high 80's, (especially at class 3 level). The form of Goodwood win two starts ago working out quite well.
 
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Not sure, Limato might need 7f+ these days; his Lennox and Sussex entries support that view.
On this easier track, and the prospect of faster ground, I'd fully expect Magical Memory to turn the Jubilee form around. Quiet Reflection has yet to prove nimself against older horses.
 
reet hard said:
Not sure, Limato might need 7f+ these days; his Lennox and Sussex entries support that view.
On this easier track, and the prospect of faster ground, I'd fully expect Magical Memory to turn the Jubilee form around. Quiet Reflection has yet to prove nimself against older horses.
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Limato may be best at 7f, based on his Doncaster win last September, but I certainly wouldn't rule him out over this trip.

What at you say about Quiet Reflection - a filly, incidentally - is strictly true but why couch it in those terms? Why not say the older sprinters haven't proved themselves against the three-year-olds?
 
Keen on Limato here also, took 10s last night after a look at the weather forecast.

My main of the week is Librisa Breeze in the Bunbury Cup. Ran a huge race from a bad draw in the Hunt Cup but I was hoping the ground would stay soft for him as he's never run over shorter than a mile.

The Princess of Wales's looks worth a look also. This race should cut up big time and Exosphere looks worth taking on at a short price carrying a penalty. I've taken 9/2 about Second Step who ran well in the Coronation Cup after being given way too much to do. I don't expect TGG to turn up, but if he does at least it would keep Frank of the Cumani horse.
 
The Grey Gatsby runs with Spencer up. One of seven. Muntazah is the only three-year-old in the race and he'd interest me given his promising fourth in the Dante on his one start this season.
 
Second Step now just a cover bet for me. TGG much better than these, always thought he'd get 12f as a mature horse. Had a little on at 7 last night, loaded up at 9/2 this morning.
 
I hope he goes close(TGG that is) as it opens up new avenues for him and Frank Gillespie has been extremely sporting keeping him in training this long, An older 10-12f horse is alwàys good for the game as Cirrus has proved.

The 3yo 6f sprint on Thursday looks a bitch to solve but I've had a tickle on the 40/1 on Riflescope, The quicker ground will help and Johnstone was bullish in his RP stable tour that he would be one of his better sprinters this summer.
 
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I certainly think Exosphere is opposable with his penalty. The form of his Jockey Club Stakes win looks unreliable and there are a number in this field I could picture beating him. In addition to Muntazah and The Grey Gatsby, Elite Army is an interesting runner. Bags of ability and was sent for home a long way out at Royal Ascot. He'll presumably be ridden with more restraint on Thursday but his tendency to pull just causes me a nagging doubt, especially in this smallish field.
 
gus said:
The two-year-old action at the meeting is always informative. Mehmas is 2/1 fav for the July Stakes with Windsor Castle winner, Ardad, priced at 7/2. Yalta (9/1) would interest me if the ground was decent.
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Given that I'd have happily accepted 9s, taking 14s for Yalta this evening was something of a no-brainer.
 
gus said:
The Grey Gatsby runs with Spencer up. One of seven. Muntazah is the only three-year-old in the race and he'd interest me given his promising fourth in the Dante on his one start this season.
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I was at York and thought Muntazah the horse with the most scope in that field. In the race he pulled badly and Hanagan didn't give him a good ride but he still finished 4th. It did not surprise me that Hanagan signed himself off sick after the race. So if the pulling was just freshness I think he has a big opportunity in this field as 3yos are well treated in this type of event at this time of year.
 
They are, but the Dante looks ropey form to me. I'll be very disappointed if TGG can't beat this field.

Euro Charline is overpriced in the Falmouth. Loves track and ground should be second fav. I think her Lockinge run isn't that far (if at all) behind the fav's form and I like that she missed Ascot for this.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
I was at York and thought Muntazah the horse with the most scope in that field. In the race he pulled badly and Hanagan didn't give him a good ride but he still finished 4th. It did not surprise me that Hanagan signed himself off sick after the race. So if the pulling was just freshness I think he has a big opportunity in this field as 3yos are well treated in this type of event at this time of year.
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Obviously, some horses pull hard whoever is riding them but Hanagan's high proportion of mounts that fail to settle is striking and I'll never regard him as a top jockey for that reason. He reminds me in this respect of late-period Philip Robinson.

I disagree about the wfa scale. I'm inclined at all times of year to accept it as about right and favouring no particular age group over another. I agree with Euro about the Dante form generally but the reasons I like Muntazah for tomorrow's race are my belief that he can significantly step up on his Dante run and his price - he's 9/1 in a seven-runner race in which, with the possible exception of The Grey Gatsby, the opposition doesn't look particularly high class.
 
Marble said:
BATHOS is a course and distance winner at Newmarket twice over. Performances have been hit and miss so far this season, but he's a dangerous horse to underestimate on a mark in the high 80's, (especially at class 3 level). The form of Goodwood win two starts ago working out quite well.
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Entered for the class 2 handicap on Friday (4:45)

Priceless could go well at big odds in the 3:45 tomorrow, dropped in class and a better run is expected.
 
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Marble said:
Priceless could go well at big odds in the 3:45 tomorrow, dropped in class and a better run is expected.
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Yes, I was looking at her. She clearly is difficult - and they've left the hood off that was tried last time - but after her first two runs last year you'd have been surprised to be told she'd be running off a mark of 95 after just three more outings. If she ever gets her act together she's thrown in off that sort of rating.
 
Agreed. Its her first attempt in handicap company. The mark is worth exploiting, see if she is good enough.
 
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gus said:
I disagree about the wfa scale. I'm inclined at all times of year to accept it as about right and favouring no particular age group over another.
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Over distances in excess of a mile I think it's correct yes, but I would always favour a good 3yo over an older horse in the Sussex.
 
Marble said:
Quite early for looking at the handicaps, but here's one to watch for Friday..

BATHOS is a course and distance winner at Newmarket twice over. Performances have been hit and miss so far this season, but he's a dangerous horse to underestimate on a mark in the high 80's, (especially at class 3 level). The form of Goodwood win two starts ago working out quite well.
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I like this shout
While his stable is a difficult one to get a handle on Backing Johnstone's horses is never a bad thing at this time of year
 
Euronymous said:
They are, but the Dante looks ropey form to me. I'll be very disappointed if TGG can't beat this field.

Euro Charline is overpriced in the Falmouth. Loves track and ground should be second fav. I think her Lockinge run isn't that far (if at all) behind the fav's form and I like that she missed Ascot for this.
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She has been retired today Euro according to the RP. Did a tendon on the gallops.
 
It looks an excellent few days racing to come just typical that I'm back to work tomorrow after a fortnight off:)
 
Shabeeb (2.10) has an OR of 100, but lto absolutely blew away a horse who'll probably be mid 90's after his win on Monday. With significant improvement expected over a trip he's crying out for, he looks a solid bet at the current 5/1,
 
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