Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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I just watched the Aon again and I am leaning towards Shadow Leader's views, although I still won't be tempted to have a bet.

Ollie Magern is no past number and Denman laughed at him up the straight, notwithstanding a howler at the cross fence. The horse seems to be the perfect racing machine - he deosn't have to lead and Thomas puts him wherever he wants when he wants.

I think the time of the race needs to be put in the context of how easily Denman did it, being eased halfway up the home straight.

If Ollie Magern had managed to keep tabs till the second last or even the last then Denman may have recorded the sort of time that would have had him vying for favouritism.

I am surprised Melendez you describe this as the best Gold Cup of your lifetime since Carvill's Hill. Best Mate's 3rd victory didn't figure in anyway? What about Dawn Run? Desert Orchid? The Fellow finally coming good? Imperial Call's demolition job?

Carvill's Hill had a serious engine but his jumping technique was blighted by back problems. It could be argued that this flaw never entitled him to pretentions to Gold Cup glory and his poor jumping performances in his two Gold Cups proved that.
 
In terms of quality it should be the best. Obviously it is seriously lacking in Irishness. Dawn Run's race will always be my favourite, and pretty decent in terms of quality, but this has the potential ro surpass that in performance terms. I hated Desert Orchid's race with a passion, that was the race when we should have seen the monster performance from Carvill's Hill.
 
Originally posted by useful@Feb 15 2008, 01:47 PM


I am surprised Melendez you describe this as the best Gold Cup of your lifetime since Carvill's Hill. Best Mate's 3rd victory didn't figure in anyway? What about Dawn Run? Desert Orchid? The Fellow finally coming good? Imperial Call's demolition job?
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Dessie and Dawn Run came before Carvills Hill. What did Imperial Call and Best Mate beat exactly? The Fellow? Is that the same horse that couldn`t best Cool Ground?
 
Originally posted by Melendez@Feb 15 2008, 02:39 PM
I hated Desert Orchid's race with a passion, that was the race when we should have seen the monster performance from Carvill's Hill.
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Surely that would have been the '92 race won by Cool Ground when Golden Freeze was put in as a spoiler. In '89, Carvill's Hill was never really in the race. Ten Plus would have won by 10 lengths but that's another argument.
 
Dessies year he was running as a novice. The ground was absolutely ideal for Carvill's Hill, I think the meeting was actually delayed for a last minute inspection to see could it go ahead. Despite already being shown up as a bit clumsy, Morgan stuck him in the middle of the pack when he should have been out in front with a clear view of the fences. A more positive attitude, I believe would have seen a different story.

To my mind, the ground, rather than Golden Freeze's tactics beat him on his next attempt. Jim Dreaper was always adamant the horse should never run on anything but soft ground and everything happened too quick for him. I don't think he was ever going to put in a "special" performance on that sort of ground.
 
Ok Mel. Understand what you meant now. I'm not convinced that Carvill's Hill was ever meant for Cheltenham at Gold Cup pace. Presumably Morgan was riding to Dreaper's orders.
 
Nick Mordin appears to be plumping for Kauto :P

DENMAN GOES SLOW YET AGAIN

Hype wins races. It frightens away a horse's opposition. And the riders of the rivals that do turn up are often scared into adopting self-defeating tactics. There's no better example of this than DENMAN (23) who took the Aon Chase at Newbury last week in remarkably slow time.

On his previous start in the Lexus Chase I thought that The Listener was just bound to put Denman's jumping under pressure and expose what I think are his stamina limitations by setting a strong pace. But his rider simply refused to take Denman on. He explained afterwards that he was afraid to because he felt it would only play into Denman's hands. In other words he believed the hype. As a result the early pace was incredibly slow.

It was an identical story in the Aon Chase. Here it looked certain that the gung ho front runner Ollie Magern would blaze a trail and finally reveal what I see as Denman's suspect stamina and stretch him into jumping errors. But once more the jockey on a horse that's normally a tear away front runner just wouldn't take Denman on. He only went three quarters of racing pace for the first mile and was perfectly happy to let Denman amble past him at little more than a hack canter as they came up the straight for the first time.

Things changed on the far side as they approached the ninth fence. There finally Ollie Magern was allowed to stride on and went head to head with Denman. From that point to the Cross Fence (the fourteenth) the stopwatch shows they actually went too fast.

I ploughed through the videos of what looked like the fastest three mile chases run at Newbury in the last two years and found that the fastest they had gone from the ninth to the fourteenth fence in any of them was when Alderburn won a red hot handicap last Spring. In that race they were really flying and ran the six furlongs from the ninth to the fourteenth in 1 minute 27.5 seconds. This was clearly too fast because the entire field tired badly in the closing stages. So much so that it hurt the final time.

Denman actually ran a good deal faster than Alderburn from the ninth to the fourteenth fences. If you adjust for the difference in going from Alderburn's race he took 1 minute 26.1 seconds to run the distance.

I've found that when the runners quicken up and sprint in a jump race like this, going much faster than they should, they invariably tire pretty badly, no matter how slow they've gone earlier. This explains why the entire field slowed up so much after they'd been sprinting. In fact Denman came home from the Cross fence just 0.3 of a second quicker than Alderburn did when you adjust for the difference in going. The pace collapsed in both races.

What's amazing is that in all three of his starts this season Denman has encountered a slow early pace and won by producing a sustained sprint which has ended some way before the finish.

You could argue that Denman and Kauto Star are going to scare away most of the opposition in this year's Gold Cup and that the early pace is going to be slow as a result. This could bring about a situation that would suit Denman. But only once in the last ten running's of the race have there been less than twelve runners. This was when Best Mate was running in a very weak year, having won the previous two renewals. Since then the trend has been towards bigger fields in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and I don't see why that should change this year. Over a dozen runners seem committed to running.

Denman has yet to prove he can stay the Gold Cup trip in a truly run race (he's certainly not bred to get it). And he has yet to have his jumping tested by the searching end to end gallop that they normally go in the big Cheltenham race. So far he's won against the slower early pace to be found in novice chases and has gotten away with brief sprints sandwiched between an otherwise slow pace against more experienced opposition. I've yet to give him a speed rating better than 39, which is only good Grade 3 class, and he'll be facing several rivals who have run faster than that at Cheltenham, including one, Kauto Star, that has run a great deal faster. If he does anything except fall or tire badly up the final hill to finish unplaced I will be very surprised.
 
The notion that the pace collapsed and he was only 0.3 secs faster than Alderburn because he was out on his feet for lack of stamina is just too disingenious to warrant a comment in honesty, and I doubt very much that even Kauto fans would seriosuly try to invoke this in defence of their advocacy. Even Nick Mordin can't possibly believe this surely? I think there's an infinately more accurate reason why he walked across the line? Lets not forget he walked across the line in beating Ollie Magern 89L's. Kauto of course beat him 86L's at Haydock. Now I'm not seriosuly suggesting that at such large margins we can infer that one horse is 3L's better etc But Kauto was kept honest at Haydock by the pressure applied by Exotic Dancer, where as Denman just came home as he pleased at Newbury off a slower pace. Denman has therefore done a bigger demolition job in theory as Ollie should have had more to give than he did by virtue of not having been extended. You might suggest that Ollie was further forward in November which entitled him to be nearer on his Charlie Hall win? i think you'd probably be right, but there's no evidence that I can see that support Mordin one iota here, quite the opposite in fact, as he's clearly been able to put in and sustain a decisive second third of the race which Mordin says was too fast and result in a slow finish. er.... no

He ran as fast as he chose in the second third, and settled the race by combining his speed for a pro-longed spell (stamina in any other language). Having done this, Ollie Magern has eventually been forced into capitulating and finished a long way back because Denman has clearly out run him. That Denman subsequently finished off the race slowly, was because he was in a position to choose to do so.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Feb 16 2008, 12:54 AM
On his previous start in the Lexus Chase I thought that The Listener was just bound to put Denman's jumping under pressure and expose what I think are his stamina limitations by setting a strong pace. But his rider simply refused to take Denman on. He explained afterwards that he was afraid to because he felt it would only play into Denman's hands. In other words he believed the hype. As a result the early pace was incredibly slow.
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Perhaps Darryl Jacob was keeping in mind a particular race last year where his own mount's stamina limitations were laid bare having gone too hot a gallop?

The notion that Denman is certainly not bred to get the trip is crazy. He seems to be basing the entire notion on the fact that Silverburn (a completely different type of horse to Denman) doesn't seem to get 3 miles at this stage of his career. Rubbish.
 
Yes his assertion about breeding is made all the more inconsistent given that he has been foremost amongst the advocates for dosage.

Kauto 2 - 2 - 6 - 10 - 2 {22} DI 0.47 CD -0.36
Denman 0 - 1 - 1 - 6 - 2 {10} DI 0.18 CD - 0.90
 
Mordin seems more and more to cultivate a kind of perversity in his arguments, aimed at going against the tide and being seen to be different, rather than throwing light upon a problem with a view to answering questions

If he had actually been at Newbury last weekend, and stood on the rails just yards from Denman as he approached then passed the winning post in isolation, he wouldn't be able to convince even himself that his preposterous theory is tenable. I'd rather trust the evidence of my own eyes - Denman may have sprinted down the back strait but he was *cantering* down the home strait, so speed figs don't mean tiddly squat

Can you give a comparison of his times for the Hennessy and the Aon, Warbler?
ie adjusted for differences of going and distance?
 
I don't even know where to start in addressing the utter bullshit that Mordin is coming out with, yet again.

You know not only is he becoming a parody of himself, I'm beginning to think that he is deliberately cultivating such utter crap simply to be bloody minded and provoke debate.

So, Denman doesn't stay, is slow and can't jump?!?!?! This final paragraph of his just beggars belief! :

Denman has yet to prove he can stay the Gold Cup trip in a truly run race (he's certainly not bred to get it) [wtf?!? Ed.]. And he has yet to have his jumping tested by the searching end to end gallop that they normally go in the big Cheltenham race. [again, wtf?! Has he seen the beast jump?!? Ed.] So far he's won against the slower early pace to be found in novice chases and has gotten away with brief sprints sandwiched between an otherwise slow pace against more experienced opposition. I've yet to give him a speed rating better than 39, which is only good Grade 3 class, and he'll be facing several rivals who have run faster than that at Cheltenham, including one, Kauto Star, that has run a great deal faster. If he does anything except fall or tire badly up the final hill to finish unplaced I will be very surprised.[Now you're just talking out of your arse, aren't you Mordin? That's an 'F', must try harder next time. Ed.]
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Does this idiot ever watch a race? It was obvious to a blind man that Denman was dossing in front in the AON (as he has done before), he didn't have to clock a fast time as he was in the process of hacking up as he liked. He is a superb jumper so how on earth he thinks his jumping will be put to the test God only knows, and we all know that I think the notion that Denman has stamina doubts is utter rubbish.

One thing I would like to know about the times is why the need to post a fast time? The horse hacked up, easily, at Newbury - what is the point of giving him a hard race when he had already won by 20l, on the bridle? Should Thomas have thought "hang on, Mordin wants to see a fast time so I'll stripe him, possibly leave the Gold Cup behind here at Newbury, and win by 6f just to satisfy the clock watchers"? Should he bollocks!!!! The horse beats what is put in front of him, easily. He doesn't need to record world record times in doing so and to suggest that he does have to in order to prove that he is any good is absurd.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Feb 16 2008, 03:43 AM
Mordin seems more and more to cultivate a kind of perversity in his arguments, aimed at going against the tide and being seen to be different, rather than throwing light upon a problem with a view to answering questions

If he had actually been at Newbury last weekend, and stood on the rails just yards from Denman as he approached then passed the winning post in isolation, he wouldn't be able to convince even himself that his preposterous theory is tenable. I'd rather trust the evidence of my own eyes - Denman may have sprinted down the back strait but he was *cantering* down the home strait, so speed figs don't mean tiddly squat

Can you give a comparison of his times for the Hennessy and the Aon, Warbler?
ie adjusted for differences of going and distance?
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Mordin would be right so far as, in order to win consistently the punter normally needs to find a way of betting successfully against the flow, but that's a long way removed from routinely adopting a contrary position. If Denman is to beaten by Kauto, then I suspect it's going to be a simple issue of class rather than any of the reasons that he's hypothesising.

His splits to Alderburn are strange too. If you look at the bit where he agrees that Denman settles the issues (the 9th to the 14th) then Denman does this in the space of 86 seconds which is 23% of total race times of 363 seconds. This equates crudely to about 5.5 - 6 furlongs. Ollie Magern would be no complete back number even if he's probably short of being top class. In other words he's simply destroyed Ollie by sustaining a quick pace for a comparatively short period. I'm increasingly forming the opinion that he's capable of doing this for much longer (quite possibly 12F's) in which I'd be more concerned for Kauto on the stamina front, as even at Haydock over a shorter trip on a track that doesn't feature a punishing finish, Exotic Dancer, was if anything eating into his lead. I'm tempted tot hink that he might need to start to serve it up to kauto half way down the back straight rather than coming down the hill, but equally I've seen little to date to make me think he isn't capable of setting sail that far out

Also worth noting is the 'race comments' applied to Alderburn "ridden and stayed on well, flat" and Denman "eased considerably run in". Denman has still beaten Alderburn despite being the subject of significant easing. It's palpable nonesense.

As regards the Aon and Henessey, I'm one of the few who thinks the Henessey was a bit quicker than most people seem to be giving it credit for

Henessey 101.15
Aon 86.54

Topspeed have a similar differential of 153 and 145
 
Continuing my efforts to get as good a price on Denman as i can, i`ve now laid him at 2.84. Should be able to back him at 3 if KS is impressive in the next at Ascot.
 
Pure class from Kauto Star again. Fingers crossed KS, Denman & Exotic Dancer get to Cheltenham in one piece.
 
Just different class from Kauto Star....that performance shows the folly of giving Denman 178 + for beating a bunch of handicappers...unless of course they give KS 190+ for todays win!
 
Very classy but proximity of hype horse Racing Demon should hold his rating down (although it probably won't).
 
That was a stunning performance.

MG and RD are top class over 20f on a right handed track and he beat them very easily indeed in his trial.

Fair Along ran a blinder but doesn't seem to stay more than 2 miles over fences although he stayed 2m 3f on the Flat . There are worse ew horses for the QMCC .

The striking thing was how such a good 2 miler like Howle Hill couldn't even lay up with them.

Denman has never seen anything like KS and I expect it be a very rude awakening for him .

Agree entirely with Gal's view on the ratings
 
Originally posted by Ardross@Feb 16 2008, 02:51 PM


MG and RD are top class over 20f on a right handed track and he beat them very easily indeed in his trial.

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Is that top class in the same way Justified is (c/o Norman Williamson)

I don`t see MG and RD being that much better than Ollie Magern.

That said, i do recognise that Kauto is a likelier winner of the race than Denman, but Hills are taking the ***** at 8/11.
 
While I wouldnt describe Racing Demon as top class, both he and Monets Garden are in a different league to Ollie Magern.
 
Ollie Magern has run to 160 twice this season according to RPR`s. MG was rated 160 by Timeform last year shrug:: so what`s so funny.

:shy: season and a bit
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Feb 16 2008, 10:12 AM
[QUOTE
As regards the Aon and Henessey, I'm one of the few who thinks the Henessey was a bit quicker than most people seem to be giving it credit for

Henessey 101.15
Aon 86.54

Topspeed have a similar differential of 153 and 145
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Thanks Warbler, and that pretty much confirms the evidence of my own eyes. Denman wasn't cantering at the end of the Hennessy, but he wasn't flat out either. He wasn't doing more than a canter at the end of the Aon.

Interesting analysis too in regard of Alderburn. All adds to the rich mosaic
 
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