Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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Originally posted by SteveM@Mar 9 2008, 03:19 PM
I knew someone was going to say that, but Jodami was a very good horse at Cheltenham. It's also worth pointing out that Denman is within 4lb of Kauto already - not bad for a horse that (as some of you think) is all about potential. Denman is a very serious proposition as he is. Kauto has not faced a horse as good in fact.
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Firstly, I don't think Denman is already within 4lbs of Kauto. I reckon more like 8lbs.

Secondly, I don't think Denman is about 'potential'. I see him for what he is - an absolutely top-notch staying chaser.

Denman fans do, however, seem to be suffering from collective amnesia. Either that or they are conveniently forgetting the fact that Kauto Star's form is not only measurably better, but that there are no holes in it.

I humbly suggest you all take a look through the Hennessy form again, then ask yourselves how much daylight Kauto Star would have put between himself and Mossbank and The Listener in the Lexus. I am utterly convined it would have been nearer 14L than 4L.
 
Personally I think it's a little willful to attempt to knock the form of a chaser that has only been beaten once in 13 outings and when beaten was runner-up at the Cheltenham Festival in a novice hurdle.

On ratings, I’ve already said that Kauto has the higher mark (the official ratings are something like 180 KS and 176 Denman). I’m even prepared to believe that Kauto’s rating is higher than this, perhaps into the mid-180s (in line with his best RPR). I might even side with Kauto on another course. However this is missing the point. Denman is clearly already capable of half a stone more than he has already shown us and the Cheltenham factor alone will swing the exant difference Denman’s way (as he is so much more at ease round Cheltenham than Kauto). Denman has already achieved an OR of 176 and RPRs of 178 and 180. Being so close behind Kauto's best looks pretty good if all he is is a 'hype' horse.

Picking your way through beaten horses in the Hennessy is not the best way to find the winner here (even if he did slaughter all of them off top weight).
 
Steve while your more than entitled to your opinion...but that is all it is. When you talk about Denman "clearly being capable of half a stone" better" and Cheltenham suiting him better...its your opinion and not fact.

Indeed Paul Nicholls the trainer has stated time and time again that he feels Cheltenham is the IDEAL track for Kauto Star.

Barry put it nicely...Denman looks likely to turn out to be as good as Florida Pearl, See More Business etc...all 170 horses. Kauto Star is a minimum 180 plus horse.
 
Stand your ground Steve! I'm halfway to your view in that I don't think that this year's Denman has had to really show his ability. Another half stone is possble but not clearly.
 
.".....which could be why he's never done better for himself than head lad. smile.gif"

Bit surprised at a comment like that from you, Steve.

You don't get to be head lad without quite a bit of knowledge of horses.......yes . I realise that you put a smilie at the end but it still strikes me as a rather inaccurate and cheap shot.
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper@Mar 9 2008, 03:40 PM


I humbly suggest you all take a look through the Hennessy form again, then ask yourselves how much daylight Kauto Star would have put between himself and Mossbank and The Listener in the Lexus. I am utterly convined it would have been nearer 14L than 4L.
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I am genuinely surprised you would knock the Irish form Grasshopper - thought you knew a bit more about the game than that.

Slowly run chases against relative speed horses like The LIstener and MOssbank are very unlikely to be won by 14 lengths. In a similar way Kauto Star is a far better than last year's Gold Cup result suggests - there is no way on this earth Turpin Green would finish that close to him in a strongly run race.

Denman needs to improve on his bare form to win, but to suggest he is incapable of doing that based on the Lexus form or the Hennessy would be misguided imo.
 
Sorry TDK, but I genuinely don't believe that the Lexus form is up to a great deal - insofar as it bridges the gap to Kauto Star at least. I'm quite satisfied that Kauto Star would have put plenty more daylight between himself and the Lexus placed horses under exactly the same conditions.

What I'm suggesting is that Denman supporters appear to have forgotten all about the level that Kauto Star is capable of. When you look at the bare form of the Hennessy, all there is to hang onto is the authority of the performance, because - on the numbers - it leaves him well short of what will be required to get Kauto Star off the bridle.

Naturally, the performance looked very commanding, and as I've already said (and which appears to have been conveniently ignored) he is "an absolutely top-notch staying chaser". But phrases like "Kauto has never faced a horse as good as Denman" are just begging for a response, because they suggest that it is Kauto Star who has something to prove. He doesn't. He is already a superstar, displaying the kind of versatility that Denman could only dream about.

Kauto has nothing to prove and Denman has everything to prove. Rather than pull me up for saying the Lexus form isn't 'all that', allow me to retort: you seem to be conveniently ignoring everything that Kauto Star has done over the last two seasons - thought you knew a bit more about the game than that.

As Clive Smith says, the "upstart" will be put in his place on Thursday.

PS. Please take this post in the good-natured way it is intended to come across. This debate is/was always going to polarise opinions, but I'm quite certain that we can conduct it in a civil manner at all times. :)
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Mar 9 2008, 08:00 PM
Eddie Freemantle's written a piece in the Observer that gives Denman the verdict too
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If Denman's good enough for Eddie, he's good enough for me!!! :D

Seriously, it's always nice when well respected judges hold similar opinions to your own - and several people now who I rate as decent judges are coming down in the Denman camp as well.
 
and several people now who I rate as decent judges are coming down in the Denman camp as well.

you may need to reassess your criterion for "good judge" after Friday SL

the only people rating Denman in front of KS on Friday are just guessing rather than displaying good judgement imho.
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper@Mar 9 2008, 06:08 PM
Kauto has nothing to prove and Denman has everything to prove. Rather than pull me up for saying the Lexus form isn't 'all that', allow me to retort: you seem to be conveniently ignoring everything that Kauto Star has done over the last two seasons - thought you knew a bit more about the game than that.
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I'm not. Kauto Star is a champion - I agree. The only thing left for him to prove is that he is capable of beating Denman. For all KS's form is superior on paper, nothing has beaten Denman over fences and I don't see that changing on Friday. Anyway enough of this. I have some horses to price up... :D
 
Prove himself capable of beating Denman? In that case Kauto Star also has to prove himself capable of beating Afistfullofdollars also....

Kauto Star needs to prove nothing against any horse in this field...they are the ones that have to measure up against him.
 
Nothing has beaten Denman yet over fences - that is the "slight" difference between him and Afistfullofdollars - and the fact he has recorded much better form than that horse.
 
Kauto Star has won 2 King Georges, 2 Betfair Chases, 1 Gold Cup, 1 Tingle Creek and is rated higher than Denman....that is why Denman has it to prove not Kauto Star!
 
I have no problem with anyone thinking Denman can beat Kauto Star, I disagree but sure that’s what the game is all about. But Kauto Star has achieved a heck of a lot more than any horse in training right now and deserves the credit and respect for it. He is the one to beat.
 
I'm not saying Kauto Star isn't the one to beat at all, or indeed that he has anything to achieve ~ he sets one hell of a standard to shoot at, and it is that which Denman has to overcome.

However I believe that Denman has a very good chance of coming out on top in this particular race, under these conditions, at this track. I wouldn't be backing Denman in a match bet against Kauto Star in a King George at Kempton as I think the latter would be more suited to the race. (well, I might back the big fella in a KG if he blows KS away by 30l on Friday!! :D )
 
Round Cheltenham it is Denman that Kauto has to beat, not the other way round. Kauto is not able to reproduce his best at Cheltenham. When winning the Gold Cup he only ran to 175 despite being pressed by ED. Denman is already able to better that at Cheltenham. So Denman can win without improving. However, I expect Denman to improve as well, which makes him a fairly obvious winner to me.

In fact you could argue from this that it is Kauto that has to improve rather than Denman.
 
With the greatest respect Steve, I think that is nonsense. It also ignores the fact that Kauto looks to have improved since this time last year - and improved in a way that makes him look better suited to a Gold Cup.

Denman migth well win. But Kauto Star is the one to beat.
 
:) It's good to see you have such a strong opinion. I think it is totally and utterly the wrong one though.

I don't think that Kauto will be able to run any better this year. In fact as he has been beaten this season the evidence is that he has run to his extent. Something we cannot say of Denman who is undefeated over fences.
 
I am beginning to lean towards DENMAN as the winner of the match, but I just cant stand his part owner he needs to take a back seat when interviews are due, in any more previews of the race .............
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Mar 10 2008, 01:10 PM
In fact as he has been beaten this season the evidence is that he has run to his extent.
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You're trying way too hard to crab Kauto.
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This is not intended to crab Kauto and it is also something I don't want to do as I greatly admire the horse. However, it is only when a horse is beaten that you know the extent of what a horse can run to. Kauto ran to 182 in that race and has only slightly bettered that once this season so we we know that this mark is fairly accurate. On top of this I do not expect him to match his best at Cheltenham.

Denman on the other hand has run to 180 this season but has not been beaten or tested. Therefore it is sensible to imagine he is capable of a bit more.

Added to this I believe Denman has him beaten in the air and up the hill and you have only one winner.
 
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