Kentucky Derby

BB and KD could do a FlaD on these if he wanted, but they'll not want to leave chance of winning Triple Crown here, so he'll probably sit just behind pace and win it without giving too big an effort
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 17 2008, 10:19 PM
Stunning. So easy, hard held down the stretch.
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Horses that are way ahead of opposition do look stunning Gareth

G2 horse Cesare beating a load of handicappers, best Dirt horse in world Curlin beating G3 horses, 2nd best Dirt horse in world Big Brown beating a load of G3/L isted horse
 
On their 5th ever start, 2 weeks after a huge effort, it's a little bit more noteworthy.

Bring on the Belmont.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 17 2008, 10:27 PM
On their 5th ever start, 2 weeks after a huge effort, it's a little bit more noteworthy.
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Don't get me wrong Gareth, he's a good horse.

Last year you had Curlin, Street Sense up top and Hard Spun just in behind , BB ain't been meeeting horses of that ability


As Willo just said, he "beat bums" today



If he stay's, i think he'll beat Casino Drive
 
He was just outside track record...ridden like that

Im not a time merchant at all...but

Whatever the relative quality of the others...how many races ta that level are won like that?
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 17 2008, 11:42 PM
The deal with Three Chimneys has definitely been done btw.
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I am sure Ven can correct me if I am wrong but he is not a horse I would expect to do particularly well with at stud given his breeding.

Looked mightily impressive tonight but lets not forget about Curlin just yet.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 17 2008, 09:35 PM
Tom Durkin's whiteboard. Best thing ever.
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The complexity of the graph on it was even more stunning though. Talk about illustrating a point. :what:

Won as he was entitled to; that said, of course it's impossible not to be impressed by the manner of the victory.

I had him down as a lay in the Belmont as well before the Preakness. I still think there must be a real doubt about whether he will stay (galloping track as well). However, in his favour he seems incredibly versatile in that he settles beautifully wherever the jockey puts him and has the ability to quicken multiple times to stay out of trouble (Zayat horse blatantly tried to hassle him him tonight).
 
Really happy with today´s result.
BB will be a short favourite for the Belmont and it would be the chance to lay him big time.
Casino drive will beat him over 12f.
Funny cide won the Preakness by almost 10l and Smarty Jones by almost 12l and we all know what happened at belmont.

Really surprised about Three Chimneys getting involved with this horse. His pedigree and his physiche are nothing spectacular and even if he wins the TCrown, he could be sent to stud without really get tested on the track. ( I presume he will be inmediately retired if he wins the TC and he won´t face his elders )Nothing stands out in this crop apart from him and Cdrive will be sent to Japan after the Belmont to race over there.
 
I can't really speak with too much authority about this horse as I didn't think he'd get the 10f in the Kentucky Derby!

He's such a brilliant performer that he must have a chance of doing well at stud, although it's always odds against, even for multiple classic winners. He'll certainly attract some exceptional books in his first few seasons, so there can't be any excuses if he fails to deliverthe goods.

I have some reservations about his soundness, though, and his pedigree is not exceptional. Having said that, the primary criterion for success at stud, whether as stallion or broodmare, is racecourse performance, and he's certainly showed us plenty of that.
 
Has always seemed to be a lovely-looking horse to me, Luis Martin.

Interesting that Three Chimney's also bought Smarty Jones. Pedigree was nothing special (Elusive Quality was hardly in fashion at the time) and he's been a big success for them thusfar.
 
Well, I guess it´s a matter of taste. SJones was a much better looking horse imo and I strongly disagree about EQ. At that time he was upgrading his mares enourmously and he was a very promising stallion. In 2004 ( prior to Sjones TCrown races ) he was standing already for $30.000, having started at $10.000.
That first crop of 76 foals, produced 60 winners and 11 stakes winners. EQ was much more than a one good horse stallion.
 
Originally posted by LUKE+May 17 2008, 09:47 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (LUKE @ May 17 2008, 09:47 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Headstrong@May 17 2008, 09:17 PM
....
But I see no reason why Big Brown would bounce
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You don't share the trainers worries about the hard race he had at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. [/b][/quote]
Nope, I didn't think he'd had *that* hard a race, and I also thought he was too superior for this lot tonight for worries - as indeed he was :D Now I must go find a video online so I can watch the damn thing!
 
Fascinating pedigree, just looking at it. His sire, Boundary, probably does not augar well for his popularity (especially now that he's pensioned), and his female line looks fairly inactive at first glance.

That said, he has crosses to Northern Dancer (close, 3x3) as well as more distant to Round Table and Damascus (stamina influences both) that make him a very attractive prospect IMO (particularly the Northern Dancer cross). The advantage that Big Brown has of course is that he will be able to prove himself right from the start, given the strong book of mares he'll almost inevitably attract (deservedly).

Two big concerns I would have are the fact that he has had two fairly serious hold-ups (soundness concerns, as Venusian mentioned) and that he was sold at a 2yo in training sale (never a positive IMO).
 
All Kentucky Derbys are hard races, particularly ones where the winner's gone 4 wide most of the way round. That he didn't is testament to the horse, not a reflection on how tough (or not) his Derby was and the amount of time (limited) he had to recover from it (see: Fusaichi Pegasus).
 
Some are hereditary [the Kalinka/Soviet Song family is one example] and some are caused by inappropriate farrier attention for foal/yearling sales, etc etc; so hard to know without knowing the family.

The fact BB was sold at 2 might be an indication of early foot problems, which someone attempted to minimise for the sale - thereby being a bit overzealous. Bill O'Gorman's new book which you can read online had a bit about this; but he says this kind of stuff is routine now on front hooves when yearlings are sold [and deplores it as he feels it can *cause* problems to arise, as well as hiding ones which were there]. I don't know how this relates to wsat happens in the US, but interference in nature seems to be endemic over there anyway
 
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