King George VI And QE Stakes

Andrew Hurley said:
Youmzain a good thing based on last declaration stage. No one else has any form to get close.
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What price are you offering about DOM then Andrew if Youmzain is a good thing? Presumably he would be odds against in your book with Youmzain an odds on favourite?
 
Not so often a layer, but if DoM is odds on, i'll be emptying a bank account.

He has no form to come close to Youmzain. In his last 2 starts, he has beaten a non-stayer (Finsceal beo) and a bunch of average group 3 horses.

Youmzain on the other hand was poorly ridden in the Coronation Cup before closing late on, and followed this up with cantering all over a field described prior to the race as a 'mini arc'.

The only thing stopping Youmzain from winning this (presuming of course that Richard Hughes has now 'discovered' how not to ride Youmzain, is a slow pace which would play into the hands of DoM. Surely if Channon has any sense he'd supplement an Abdullah pacemaker? I'm presuming Ballydoyle will not be running pacemakers?
 
His form last season was verging on top class at a mile, yeah it was not the greatest Prince Of Wales but he blew them away with ease and he is from a yard that can do little wrong at present. He races as though a stepup in trip should suit (though there is a doubt on breeding)...the mini arc you refer saw Soldier Of Fortune finish a close up second...clearly O'Brien will have a line on the winner.

Dylan Thomas showed last season that a genuine star can easily handle Youmzain in a race like the King George on fast ground, I think Duke Of Marmalade has the prospect of being superior to Dylan Thomas.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
What do you think of the aiming of him at the Arc?
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Stayers often run well in the Arc; the worries would be if they had to hold him up right out the back and whether he'd be physically up to such a tough race. But he can travel and stay and that's half the battle. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if he could pick up some prize money.
 
Dylan Thomas showed last season that a genuine star can easily handle Youmzain in a race like the King George on fast ground, I think Duke Of Marmalade has the prospect of being superior to Dylan Thomas.
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And Dylan Thomas easily handled DOM too

And of course DT did not easily handle Youmzain in the Arc

And whos to say that conditions will not als be G/sft at Ascot

"blowing away" a field of Group three runners is not enough for me to back this horse at odds on in a group one race over a distance he hasnt tackled before. Hes a poor price
 
Yes easily handled DOM when he was not "right" last season...clearly a different horse this season to most observers.

Granted an ease in the ground would certainly swing things in Youmzain’s favour. As regards the price, this is a watching race for me…..I am not an odds on backer but I do think Duke Of Marmalade will win this and win it well.
 
Galileo said:
Dylan Thomas showed last season that a genuine star can easily handle Youmzain in a race like the King George on fast ground, I think Duke Of Marmalade has the prospect of being superior to Dylan Thomas.



I am not an odds on backer but I do think Duke Of Marmalade will win this and win it well.
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I agree on your first point in so much as fast ground and a short straight does play against Youmzain`s strengths. Thing is though Dylan Thomas was a better animal over 12f than 10. So, DoM needs to not only stay the trip but actually improve for the step up as well. I would also say that Youmzain has probably improved a tad since last year and last but not least you expected Moonstone to win and win well yesterday and she got the race on the nod.
 
If the bookies have got it so wrong, and that no horse in the race has any piece of form to “touch” the mighty Youmzain…anyone care to price it up as it should be?

Plenty will accuse me (any maybe they are right) of blindly following the yard…but opposing for the sake of opposing Ballydoyle runners is just as common on forums these days.
 
I have described above in this thread why the form lines show Youmzain as clearly superior to Duke of Marmalade. You state DoM is a much better horse this year (i agree) but he has no form to put him close to Youmzain.

If you can show me this form, I'd be happy to discuss it.

Just to restate my own thoughts - DoM in his last 2 races has beaten a non-stayer who hasn't won a race since the Irish Guineas last year and a motley crew of debatable Group 3 horses.

I also believe there is no case for saying Duke of Marmalade will improve for the step up in trip.

Youmzain should be talked about as the Arc winner (disgraceful stewarding and poor ride), but we can at least say he easily brushed aside Ballydoyle's prime 12 Furlong horse, Soldier of Fortune, as well as the best all aged field seen this year (something that is likely to remain the same until the Arc).

Fast pace, Youmzain is unopposable.
 
Galileo said:
If the bookies have got it so wrong, and that no horse in the race has any piece of form to “touch” the mighty Youmzain…anyone care to price it up as it should be?

Plenty will accuse me (any maybe they are right) of blindly following the yard…but opposing for the sake of opposing Ballydoyle runners is just as common on forums these days.
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Duke 7/4
Youmzain 9/4

I`d make the Duke favourite because i think the course will suit him more and Ballydoyle always seem to get the rub of the green. What i mean by that is the pace of the race will probably be in his favour as well. One cannot ignore AOB`s strike rate in Group 1`s this year also. But i have £25 on Youmzain at 20/1 and i am in the process of topping up so i`ll end up with around 840/120 as my final position. A value bet in anyone`s book.

I think your point re opposing their runners simply for the sake of it is right on occasion, certainly i opposed Henry and the Duke himself at Ascot and at the time i justified it because they were both odds-on, which is a no-no at the Royal meeting. But really, i wanted them both beat and shouldn`t have got involved. So, i learnt the lesson that to oppose their runners you have to have decent class horses on your side as well. That`s why i didn`t go after Mount Nelson in the Eclipse, the credible opposition wasn`t there.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
I have described above in this thread why the form lines show Youmzain as clearly superior to Duke of Marmalade. You state DoM is a much better horse this year (i agree) but he has no form to put him close to Youmzain.
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Whilst I wouldn't wish to suggest either is Gospel, but RPR have Duke of Marmalade on 130 and Youmzain on 127 and Timeform have Duke of Marmalade on 132 and Youmzain on 131. I don't think there's much between them, but I do think Duke of Marmalade's 10f form is midly superior to Youmzain's. The question is whether the Duke will get 12f, imo yes he will, based not only on the way he races, but there is the requisite stamina in his pedigree.

I maintain the best bet in the race is Ask. For me there is no question he is a much better horse at 12f than 10f and he hasn't yet had the chance to show that in a Group 1 race in Europe.
 
I agree Ask could be underestimated, and would fear him more than Duke of Marmalade.

If the common consensus is that Duke of Marmalade has shown his best form this season, then I'd imagine most would say his best performance was in the Prince of Wales. I also believe the relatively good pace enabled DoM to win fully extended, keeping nothing back.

Here, he beat
Pipedreamer & Phoenix Tower 4 lengths (both rated circa 117)
Stotsfold 6 lengths (rated 114)
I'm sure most would agree of the remaining 2 of the first 6 home, both Ask and Pressing were not running at their optimum distance to leave the form with those 2 open to incorrect interpretations.

Youmzain, in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (his best performance this year, hence a just comparison), beat Soldier of Fortune half a length, though more than a shade cosily - he had the race sewn up 2 out when Hughes gave him his head.

Behind Youmzain were
Soldier of Fortune - wide margin Irish Derby winner; Coronation Cup winner
Doctor Dino - (beaten 3 lengths) Hong Kong Vase winner; Man O' War winner
Lucarno - Great Voitegeur winner; St Leger winner; subsequent Princess of Wales Stakes winner
Getaway - Jockey Club Stakes winner; previous Arc favourite this year
Zambezi Sun - 2007 GP de Paris winner; prominent in betting for 2007 Arc

Now, if anyone can tell me the first piece of form is superior to the latter, I'd be very interested to hear the reasons behind that.

Conservatively, I'd have Youmzain at least a few pounds better.
 
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The Youmzain form....

Soldier of Fortune - wide margin Irish Derby winner; Coronation Cup winner.
A wide margin Irish Derby winner in soft/heavy ground, off the bridle around three furlongs out in Chantilly on fast ground and closed the winner all the way to the line.

Doctor Dino - (beaten 3 lengths) Hong Kong Vase winner; Man O' War winner.
Yet to win a Group 1 in Europe. A solid Group 1 performer globally but his biggest win (Hong Kong Vase) saw him beat a horse like Arch Rebel by 2 and a half lengths. Duke Of Marmalade beat Noel Meades flat/hurdler by 12 lengths earlier this year.

Lucarno - Great Voitegeur winner; St Leger winner; subsequent Princess of Wales Stakes winner
Again another solid performer but yet to win a Group 1 over 1m4f.Was also making his seasonal debut.

Getaway - Jockey Club Stakes winner; previous Arc favourite this year.
Previous Arc favourite means nothing other than he has disappointed (or over hyped) since his Jockey Club Stakes win were we possibly all went OTT.

Zambezi Sun - 2007 GP de Paris winner; prominent in betting for 2007 Arc.
Another hype horse, won the GP De Paris well last time but has done very little since. Duke Of Marmalade thumped him by nearly 7 lengths when they only met.

The only genuine Group 1 horse in the race other than Youmzain was Soldier Of Fortune. The rest have little or no chance in any of the major Group 1s in Europe over 10/12 furlongs...they are probably Group 2 horses over the Arc trip. The fact that a listed winner finished within 7 lengths of the winner and literally on the tails of Zambezi Sun,Lucarno etc tell us that.
 
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The only genuine Group 1 horse in the race other than Youmzain was Soldier Of Fortune. The rest have little or no chance in any of the major Group 1s in Europe over 10/12 furlongs...they are probably Group 2 horses over the Arc trip.
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You're under-rating Doctor Dino, but in any case the others were all beaten like you would expect Group 2 horses to be beaten - if not further.
 
I don't know about Doctor Dino, they were his ideal conditions and he could only beat horses like Zambzei Son and Lucarno (on his seasonal debut) by a couple of lengths. He is not a serious contender for a serious Group 1 in Europe...not in my book anyway.

But I take your point about beating Group 2 horses by a respectable distance. Just the way Andrew was portraiting it suggested they were all Group 1 performers beaten hollow...they were not Group 1 performers and some had valid reasons (going, seasonal debut etc).
 
I think Pipedreamer has proved that he's only just inferior to Phoenix Tower.

For whatever that's worth.
 
RPR have Duke of Marmalade on 130 and Youmzain on 127 and Timeform have Duke of Marmalade on 132 and Youmzain on 131.
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TF and RP handicappers get DoM ahead of Youmzain, :confused: by that mysen, but as they say, it's about opinions
 
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I must admit I think alot of people look at this race and many races with blinkered vision in that they feel O'Brien has this untouchable supremacy.

I would guarantee that had Youmzain been trained by O'Brien you lot would be bigging him up. A few weeks ago it was Soldier of Fortune this and Soldier Of Fortune that, then as soon as Youmzain completely outclass' him, suddenly its Duke Of Marmalade this and Duke Of Marmalade that. No matter how impresisve he was at Ascot, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer are barely Group 1 material and I don't think beating Finsceal Beo and Halicarnassus at the Curragh warrants so much raving. He is yet to prove he even stays and its a big stage to prove it on.

Youmzain should be favoruite for this because he has the best form, he is a dual group 1 winner and don't forget the great Rail Link only just beat him. He was a clear cut 2nd in a King George when he didn't have his ground. This horse has had his ground twice in the past two years, coming a slightly unlucky 2nd in the L'Arc, he was hampered remember and then he won in comfortable last time out. Previously he was an unlukcy 2nd at Epsom, not handling the track and found the ground too quick.

I really don't know what the horse has to do to gain the deserved credit he should get. In my opinion there is no better 4yo + in training as he has the form in the book. Find me another horse in training that could shake up 2 L'Arc winners, I would be amazed.

All this Ballydoyle hype really gets me, it really does, its like half the people around here walk around Blinkered by the fact that all Duke Of Marmalade has done is won two soft group 1's in emphatic style. You don't know if he will stay and for another he has never challenged a horse of Youmzain's class before, yet for some odd reason people think it's Youmzain who needs to improve. I just don't get it myself.

Youmzain could win the King George in a canter and I'm pretty sure everyone will still find another they think he is inferior to that has achieved less. Youmzain has come to himself slightly earlier this season which is good as he is normally a late summer/autumn horse, he is also still improving, for me he is the only possible form bet in the King George and he should be favoruite. The distance Halacarnassus got beat by Duke Of Marmalde at the Curragh would have Youmzain laughing. Hali couldn't get within a furlong of Youmzain on the track.
 
chrisbeekracing said:
I must admit I think alot of people look at this race and many races with blinkered vision in that they feel O'Brien has this untouchable supremacy.

I would guarantee that had Youmzain been trained by O'Brien you lot would be bigging him up. A few weeks ago it was Soldier of Fortune this and Soldier Of Fortune that, then as soon as Youmzain completely outclass' him, suddenly its Duke Of Marmalade this and Duke Of Marmalade that. No matter how impresisve he was at Ascot, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer are barely Group 1 material and I don't think beating Finsceal Beo and Halicarnassus at the Curragh warrants so much raving. He is yet to prove he even stays and its a big stage to prove it on.

Youmzain should be favoruite for this because he has the best form, he is a dual group 1 winner and don't forget the great Rail Link only just beat him. He was a clear cut 2nd in a King George when he didn't have his ground. This horse has had his ground twice in the past two years, coming a slightly unlucky 2nd in the L'Arc, he was hampered remember and then he won in comfortable last time out. Previously he was an unlukcy 2nd at Epsom, not handling the track and found the ground too quick.

I really don't know what the horse has to do to gain the deserved credit he should get. In my opinion there is no better 4yo + in training as he has the form in the book. Find me another horse in training that could shake up 2 L'Arc winners, I would be amazed.

All this Ballydoyle hype really gets me, it really does, its like half the people around here walk around Blinkered by the fact that all Duke Of Marmalade has done is won two soft group 1's in emphatic style. You don't know if he will stay and for another he has never challenged a horse of Youmzain's class before, yet for some odd reason people think it's Youmzain who needs to improve. I just don't get it myself.

Youmzain could win the King George in a canter and I'm pretty sure everyone will still find another they think he is inferior to that has achieved less. Youmzain has come to himself slightly earlier this season which is good as he is normally a late summer/autumn horse, he is also still improving, for me he is the only possible form bet in the King George and he should be favoruite. The distance Halacarnassus got beat by Duke Of Marmalde at the Curragh would have Youmzain laughing. Hali couldn't get within a furlong of Youmzain on the track.
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“No matter how impresisve he was at Ascot, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer are barely Group 1 material”

Chris I can pick out numerous early season posts from you tell us how “out of the ordinary” Phoenix Tower is and that he is a top class Group 1 horse was would win the Lockinge. Now that Duke Of Marmalade has slaughtered him - he suddenly is not?

“He was a clear cut 2nd in a King George when he didn't have his ground.”
He was thumped by Dylan Thomas and was a clear cut second from the likes of Maraahel. The ground on King George day last year is about as soft as Youmzain can ever hope for (unless there is a freak weather spell) as I remember there were doubts about Dylan Thomas going on the rain affected ground all week- it was officially Good To Soft. Given Ascot’s draining and the usual forecast – good to firm ground is surely the most likely going.

I am not even sure about the ground excuse…last time at Chantilly all the times suggests it was very fast going and he traveled really well on it…with Soldier Of Fortune the horse that looked like he hated it.


“You don't know if he will stay”

True and it has been mentioned a few times already on here.

“The distance Halacarnassus got beat by Duke Of Marmalde at the Curragh would have Youmzain laughing. Hali couldn't get within a furlong of Youmzain on the track.”

Poor race reading, suggest you look at where Red Rock Canyon finished at The Curragh and then at Ascot. In a properly run 10 furlong race at Ascot (unlike at The Curragh) the true extent of DOM superiority was displayed. Ballydoyle could have ran Soldier Of Fortune in this, a big galloping track like Ascot would surely suit him better then Chantilly’s tight turns but weeks in advance they made it clear who was their number 1 for the race….not just when SOF got beat as your suggesting Chris.

For the record if Duke Of Marmalade does not win I think Youmzain will! I just think DOM is another Dylan Thomas, and if he is he wins..simple as.
 
I dont think anyone really follows Ballydoyle blindly in GP1s, even if some give that impression. But if they were, they wouldnt be having the worst season. Maybe even a better season that those who automatically oppose Ballydoyle in Gp1s - regardless of form.
 
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