King George VI And QE Stakes

Chris I can pick out numerous early season posts from you tell us how “out of the ordinary” Phoenix Tower is and that he is a top class Group 1 horse was would win the Lockinge. Now that Duke Of Marmalade has slaughtered him - he suddenly is not?


Whats that got to do with anything? Hardly unusual for a unexposed horse to be overrated is it? He couldnt win a very substandard eclipse where a bunch of them finished in a heap


Good post Chrisbee although i wouldnt have brought last years KGV into it. Youmzain has clearly improved since then and lets face it, with any of Channons runners there are going to be underpar performances...which is a concern for this year too
 
I dont think anyone really follows Ballydoyle blindly in GP1s, even if some give that impression. But if they were, they wouldnt be having the worst season. Maybe even a better season that those who automatically oppose Ballydoyle in Gp1s - regardless of form

I dont see why anyone would do either although the KGV is a probable example of connections suppressing the price This is likely to be a pattern (and always worth taking on). But not always, as the remarkable price for henry in the Irish guineas proved
 
Agree Clive. But the idea that all Ballydoyle horses are shorter than the should be doesnt always stand up. Second in the Oaks was available at 11/4 at the weekend in the Irish equivalent (without the Epsom winner taking her on again) Mount Nelson, Haradasun, Henry in Ireland. They all havent been overbet.
 
But apart from henry...none were exactly decisive winners :)

Fair point about Moonstone and i thought a couple of fairly unproven runners were way too short in thebetting in that race.
 
Decisive or not, I actually think layers like to get stuck into O'Brien's in the expectation that they are always too short, regardless of the circumstance. Mount Nelson was the horse with some Group 1 form in the Eclipse, and the fact that he is being selected by O'Brien should mean something. I havent backed any of these, or bet against them, just observing.
 
The Youmzain form....

Soldier of Fortune - wide margin Irish Derby winner; Coronation Cup winner.
A wide margin Irish Derby winner in soft/heavy ground, off the bridle around three furlongs out in Chantilly on fast ground and closed the winner all the way to the line.

Doctor Dino - (beaten 3 lengths) Hong Kong Vase winner; Man O' War winner.
Yet to win a Group 1 in Europe. A solid Group 1 performer globally but his biggest win (Hong Kong Vase) saw him beat a horse like Arch Rebel by 2 and a half lengths. Duke Of Marmalade beat Noel Meades flat/hurdler by 12 lengths earlier this year.

Lucarno - Great Voitegeur winner; St Leger winner; subsequent Princess of Wales Stakes winner
Again another solid performer but yet to win a Group 1 over 1m4f.Was also making his seasonal debut.

Getaway - Jockey Club Stakes winner; previous Arc favourite this year.
Previous Arc favourite means nothing other than he has disappointed (or over hyped) since his Jockey Club Stakes win were we possibly all went OTT.

Zambezi Sun - 2007 GP de Paris winner; prominent in betting for 2007 Arc.
Another hype horse, won the GP De Paris well last time but has done very little since. Duke Of Marmalade thumped him by nearly 7 lengths when they only met.

The only genuine Group 1 horse in the race other than Youmzain was Soldier Of Fortune. The rest have little or no chance in any of the major Group 1s in Europe over 10/12 furlongs...they are probably Group 2 horses over the Arc trip. The fact that a listed winner finished within 7 lengths of the winner and literally on the tails of Zambezi Sun,Lucarno etc tell us that.


Lucarno - he made his seasonal debut at Sandown

Doctor Dino - The Hong Kong international day's racing is probably the best days racing on turf (Arc day aside). He is a dual all-aged Group 1 winner. That surely speaks for itself?

Zambezi Sun - clearly bounced back to form in the group 2 prior to the GP de Saint Cloud.

Getaway - overhyped? Couldn't agree more. But still a better horse than any Duke of Marmalade beat.

Again, if you can tell me the form Duke of Marmalade has which entitles him to even approach Youmzain's, I will look forward to reading it.

The more I think of it, the market is upside down. I think Youmzain should be evens for this.
 
For the interests of accuracy, Chris, Duke of Marmalade has won 3 Group 1s this season. You're forgetting the Ganay, where he beat Saddex and Sageburg. Both of those won Group 1s next time out.

A measure of how much Duke of Marmalade improved between that run and Ascot is that Saddex beat Pressing a head next time out in Italy. DoM beat Pressing 5 1/2 lengths at Ascot. The trustworthiness (if not the level) of the Ascot form was proven in the Eclipse - DoM could have gone there and hacked up for a fourth Group 1 in a little over 2 months. The kind of thing you said elsewhere is extremely rare and difficult no matter how 'easy' the races - and you'd be right.

On the subject of Youmzain, I think the idea that he "needs his ground" is bunk. He's shown himself to be effective on a range of going. Making excuses about the ground and handling the track at Epsom is clutching at straws - he simply got going too late in a race which wasn't quite run at a fast enough pace for him (I backed him). Given a more prominent position in a truer-run race at Saint-Cloud, he was able to turn a 3/4 length defeat into a 1/2 length win. He didn't "completely outclass" SoF.

For all that, I agree with your central point that they should be much closer in the betting and that the concerns over DoM's ability to be equally or more effective over 12f warrant taking him on when you've got a proven classy stayer like Youmzain to go to war with.

I don't quite understand why the perceived "Ballydoyle hype" pisses you off so much. If it really is hype, if there really is no basis for it (apart from the 13 soft Group 1s they've already won this season, I guess) then presumably Timeform, the Racing Post and the odds compilers at all the major bookies are also suffering from it. Isn't that exactly what you want? 4/1 about something you think should be, I dunno, 6/4? Max bet time, surely?
 
I am quite disappointed this race fails to merge the 3 year olds with the rest anymore, the last good race of this was back in 2003, when Alamshar and Kris Kin renewed their rivalry and one Alamshar won in emphatic fashion which was let off at ridiculous odds that I couldnt complaain about, think I picked up 7/1 for him, think there has been 2 three year olds since who have ran here.


On this years race I see the forecast of DOM and Youmzain of being only real value which I'll lump on, Lucarno bar its win at Newmarket has been quite disappointing, when it was thumped by Smokey Oakey of all horses, and Youmzain has shown it has the beating of it.
 
Duke of Marmalade
Youmzain
Ask
Lucarno
Papal Bull

Looking at the prices in the waiting to back column it looks like this could be the complete field. Maybe Camponologist as well.
 
Out to 23/1 on Betfair as well so there may be something up.

Going was described as Good, Good To Firm in places.
 
Duke Of Marmalade heads 10 left in today. Out to evens on Betfair and Ascot have started watering.

Duke Of Marmalade
Red Rock Canyon
Mount Nelson
Youmzain
Ask
Lucarno
Papal Bull
Petara Bay
Literato
Macarthur
 
Yes, it's very hot here today and it's meant to reach high 20's on Friday.

As official guides tend to be anything but, can anyone assure me the ground in the GP de Saint Cloud was quick?!
 
Ven what do you make of Duke Of Marmalade's pedigree? Good chance of getting the trip? Dam is a worry but when you go back further it is more encouraging.
 
I think Duke has a chance to stay ,especially on style of racing and also will depend on the pace, but the odds are too short to take the chance.
 
Ask Ryan Moore
Duke of Marmalade (IRE) J. Murtagh
Lucarno (USA) Jimmy Fortune
Macarthur J. A. Heffernan
Papal Bull O. Peslier
Petara Bay (IRE) Jim Crowley
Red Rock Canyon (IRE) C. O'Donoghue
Youmzain (IRE)Richard Hughes
 
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