King George VI Chase 2014

10 left
Al Ferof, Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Double Ross, Dynaste, John's Spirit, Menorah, Silviniaco Conti, Wishfull Thinking, Wonderful Charm
 
The way I see the race...

SC sets a decent standard but is not top, top class
only one other horse has pretensions to be top, top class
Dynaste and Al Ferof either don't stay or are proven not good enough - easy to read this and both are exposed at their (decent) level.
Menorah, though improved this year, similar
Cue Card won't stay and seems to have regressed
The rest aren't good enough/exposed

For me, 7/2 on Champagne Fever to progress for the step up to 3 miles is a very, very decent bet, and he has only one horse to beat. And, that horse can run the odd below par race too.
 
Hamm said:
Dynaste and Al Ferof either don't stay or are proven not good enough - easy to read this and both are exposed at their (decent) level.


For me, 7/2 on Champagne Fever to progress for the step up to 3 miles is a very, very decent bet, and he has only one horse to beat. And, that horse can run the odd below par race too.
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When I first read that Nicholls was aiming Al Ferof at the race again I was aghast. But I think he has claims at the price:
Last season he was coming into the race after a year off and a match against French Holly that was just a glorified piece of work. He was nowhere near ready and ran like he needed the run. And needing it in a Championship race is where you're gonna be most exposed.

This time around he'll be fitter after a proper run in the Amlin and the ground will be more to his liking. This will be almost his first go at a big race with a trouble free prep since his Paddy Power win (the run behind Harry Topper at Newbury on Somme type ground bottomed him for the Ryanair in March). I think he's worth one more chance at around 8s.

Champagne Fever I have big prices about for the Gold Cup so I'm not playing at 7/2. I'd like to see him run well.

Conti is vulnerable on good to soft.
 
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Are these the final decs then?
If so I'll be giving Wonderful Charm ago at double figures in the place market. Has so much scope over 3m+
 
Have just got the pass, so am there on Friday for my Xmas highlight...

it's currently good to soft and with the next 5 days looking dry and warm(ish), have to be against Conti. Doesn't help me find the winner though, as the next 4/5 in the betting will all handle it fine. Already have a little ew Al Ferof at 12/1 so will probably add Cue Card & Dynaste on the day
 
If we get decentish ground then it's looking an open race with some having questions to answer.
I would like to give ALF another chance as it appears he has excuses for last season. Would love the real Cue Card back but not sure I can have him. Menorah has run cracking races back to back. Can see him going well again. Wouldn't fancy Conti on better ground but think he wins on soft. Have my doubts regards CF and he is one I am against. Not just the trip with him but the fact he will be too keen.

Will wait until the day but at this stage I am leaning towards Menorah who should be in the shake up.
 
Champagne Fever has a decent chance, but is too short for me. Menorah's looked good this year & wouldn't begrudge him a big win, but is a horse I never seem to get right
 
Champagne Fever for me. The three mile chasing division has been missing a star and he's the horse to fill the gap. I reckon we'll be saying 3/1 was incredible value after the race.
 
Maruco said:
Champagne Fever for me. The three mile chasing division has been missing a star and he's the horse to fill the gap. I reckon we'll be saying 3/1 was incredible value after the race.
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he might win but surely there's plenty there to stop people steaming in. first time over the trip. terrible record at this time of year historically.

agree the division needs a star. conti is the closest thing but he doesn't seem to inspire anyone for some reason.
 
Maruco said:
Champagne Fever for me. The three mile chasing division has been missing a star and he's the horse to fill the gap. I reckon we'll be saying 3/1 was incredible value after the race.
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My thoughts exactly. I'd back him at 9/4.
 
JamesRB said:
he might win but surely there's plenty there to stop people steaming in. first time over the trip. terrible record at this time of year historically.

agree the division needs a star. conti is the closest thing but he doesn't seem to inspire anyone for some reason.
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You're right but bear in mind he hasn't been targeted at a race at Xmas in the way he has been this season..
 
Five runs and barely a performance up to expectations amongst them. Not shown a true stars natural aptitude for fences yet Maybe he will improve for 3m but hasnt looked like hes screaming for it. Not for me.
 
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Hamm said:
My thoughts exactly. I'd back him at 9/4.
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I reckon he will go off round about that price as the fav, The untapped potential over the trip and the Ruby factor.Punters will wade in on course.
Winner for me.
 
Whatever else you might say about Champagne Fever, he is about the only horse in the field who isn't horribly exposed, and is a fair bet on that basis alone. Take CF out the race and you could go banker on SC, CC and AF in a tricast (the rest nowhere). He adds a degree of interest to an otherwise ordinary-looking renewal.
 
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