King George VI Chase 2014

not having won a G1 chase or a win near this distance or at a track like this...would concern me more than that tbh..at 8/1 you can take a leap of faith..at current price..really bad value imo
 
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Based on potential and what he should be, added into what he's already achieved, I disagree. I can think of a number of recent horses off the top of my head that fit a similar profile earlier in their careers including Kauto Star who prior to his King George win had run almost exclusively over 2 miles with a handful of 2 and half mile runs. In his case his first run over 3 miles was in the Betfair at Haydock and he went off as 11/8 favourite, which makes 10/3 look huge, and then followed up at Kempton at 8/11.

If you believe Champagne Fever will improve for the trip and he is a future star (which I do), against a backdrop of below par top grade staying chasers I reckon his price is a steal. I also reckon his price for the Gold Cup will collapse as well, so as a layer as well as player I've already played up for a trade in the GC post race.
 
I think KS is too exceptional to compare any horse to tbh. I just don't see CF as a winner here.

On top of the negs already mentioned..what will happen if CF gets tangled up near a strong pace with CC?

CC if they could get him to lead at 3m pace instead of what he is used to at shorter..he could save a bit for the end..but he always looks to be going one stride to quickly..if CF gets near him it could scupper both horses chance..because if there is a pace a stride or two too quick..it will play into SC's hands
 
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I agree when it comes to the King George Arkle himself would have found Kauto Star a very difficult opponent to beat.

CF is not even in the same county even if he does improve for the trip.

I hate Sc but I wouldn't dream of opposing him against this lot...looks like a steering job unless Cue Card comes back to his very best which I doubt
 
EC1 said:
I think KS is too exceptional to compare any horse to tbh. I just don't see CF as a winner here.

On top of the negs already mentioned..what will happen if CF gets tangled up near a strong pace with CC?

CC if they could get him to lead at 3m pace instead of what he is used to at shorter..he could save a bit for the end..but he always looks to be going one stride to quickly..if CF gets near him it could scupper both horses chance..because if there is a pace a stride or two too quick..it will play into SC's hands
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My read is the opposite, and the very fact that Cue Card will do his usual should help. Willie doesn't want him making his own pace and wants him to sit off it. Sensible really because can you think of anyone with a better clock in his head around Kempton than Ruby!

The one that's more likely to get tangled up in the pace is Silviniaco Conti. Ruby has also sat on SC enough times to know how to ride against him.

Isn't that the great thing about racing and having the banter on here though. We can take complete opposite views from looking at the same set of facts, even when the two of us know the time of day!
 
thats how i'm seeing Tanlic it tbh.

does anyone else think he has wonderful charm in there to bustle the front pace up?

it would certainly make the race for SC
 
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Maruco said:
My read is the opposite, and the very fact that Cue Card will do his usual should help. Willie doesn't want him making his own pace and wants him to sit off it. Sensible really because can you think of anyone with a better clock in his head around Kempton than Ruby!

The one that's more likely to get tangled up in the pace is Silviniaco Conti. Ruby has also sat on SC enough times to know how to ride against him.

Isn't that the great thing about racing and having the banter on here though. We can take complete opposite views from looking at the same set of facts, even when the two of us know the time of day!
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its what makes it the hardest game known to man isn't it?

fascinating races to look forward to for sure..this and the xmas hurdle..something to look forward to after we pollute our bodies on thursday:)
 
I think cfs jumping will get exposed at the likely pace. One mistake in this race and it's very hard to get back in. He's been far from mistake free.
 
EC1 said:
its what makes it the hardest game known to man isn't it?

fascinating races to look forward to for sure..this and the xmas hurdle..something to look forward to after we pollute our bodies on thursday:)
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There's a fair chance I'll be doing some more polluting when I'm watching on Friday too! :D
 
No guarantee CC will lead. They have talked about dropping him in.
A chance CF will take himself there.
 
Any hope of John's Spirit making the jump into the big league ?
He fits the bill of an improver and is young enough to follow in the footsteps of Batchelors Hall and Bright Highway.
I know Johnjo's stable are in dire form though.
 
Frankel said:
No guarantee CC will lead. They have talked about dropping him in.
A chance CF will take himself there.
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and what if wonderful spirit is there to rush him along..no one has replied to my query on that..i'll say it again..if WS is there to bustle the pace up..the race is SC's
 
edgt said:
Any hope of John's Spirit making the jump into the big league ?
He fits the bill of an improver and is young enough to follow in the footsteps of Batchelors Hall and Bright Highway.
I know Johnjo's stable are in dire form though.
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take no notice of his form..Jonjo has them ready for these..same with festival..he will kid folk on before then too.i looked at this one..but it doesn't stay 3m at all at this level imo..so even if he is ready to do his best,,can't see it
 
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EC1 said:
and what if wonderful spirit is there to rush him along..no one has replied to my query on that..i'll say it again..if WS is there to bustle the pace up..the race is SC's
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Already said I'm against CF for reasons like you refer to. If CC doesn't lead, a good chance CF will take himself there. I agree he will have very close company throughout.
 
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Ultimately he's an inexperienced less than reliable jumper who hasn't set the world alight and is likely to be bustled up against vastly more experienced horses. And he's favourite?
 
Champagne Fever is a superb jumper.

He's a chaser with a stayers pedigree who managed to best two top class hurdlers in a Supreme - not set the world alight?

I'm not backing him but he's probably the likeliest winner of the race on the likely ground
 
Euronymous said:
Champagne Fever is a superb jumper.

He's a chaser with a stayers pedigree who managed to best two top class hurdlers in a Supreme - not set the world alight?

I'm not backing him but he's probably the likeliest winner of the race on the likely ground
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At those odds his ropey looking runs during previous Christmas periods would concern me.

make your mind up :p

he's never won a G1 chase..never won at the trip..or on a track like this..should be 8/1+..if he were trained by someone outside the top 3 yards he would be

how is he the likeliest winner? he has a chance better than some and less than others
 
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Precisely, Euro, and when it's taken into account that the Supreme wasn't his trip, then one begins to appreciate his real potential.
 
the supreme is not very similar to the KG though

its 1 mile further
its on a totally different track
it has big fences not hurdles
its the other way round

not seeing how that is a measure of a KG winner tbh
 
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EC1 said:
At those odds his ropey looking runs during previous Christmas periods would concern me.

make your mind up :p

he's never won a G1 chase..never won at the trip..or on a track like this..should be 8/1+..if he were trained by someone outside the top 3 yards he would be

how is he the likeliest winner? he has a chance better than some and less than others
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The odds I was referring to were 9/4.
 
Ruby Walsh on CF,

Ruby Walsh is hoping the step up to three miles will suit Champagne Fever and that the Willie Mullins-trained grey will be on his best form in the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton on December 26.

The three-times Grade One scorer has impressed since thoughts turned to chasing but he has yet to compete over the King George distance.

"I think he will be suited by the step up in trip, but he is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde," the Irish jockey told Racing UK.

"He's never won at Christmas. He was beaten in a bumper when we thought that was impossible and then he made a mistake at the second-last in a novice chase at Leopardstown and got run over by Defy Logic.

"Champagne Fever on a good day is a very good horse, but he's had a few off-days when he hasn't been so good.

"You are guessing, and you hope, that the step up will suit him. I think it will, but you can't say for certain.

"It's a very good race. You've got Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card and Menorah.

"It's the King George and will be run at a really good gallop. It will be intense all the way.

"There will be pressure on everyone's jumping and I'm hoping to settle him."
 
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