Just want to put my thoughts on this race after my above rant.
I gather is very rare in jumps racing that we have this kind of situation, perhaps only when a novice comes into open company but this isn't the case as TC is a champion stayer over hurdles. Unlike what the above posters say, I continue to believe form over different sports is irrelevant. Yes he has 4 legs and he needs to stay but the different muscles that are solicited during a chase race and the fact that speed is not so relevant over fences vs jumping them, makes most of the formbook irrelevant when compared to hurdling. He was a class apart over timber but I agree those didn't took much beating and it puzzles me why RP rated his WH win higher than what Faugheen did in the ICH. I'd say if those 2 meet TC would be some lengths behind even without F at his best. Remember F got beat due to a culmination of factors like tactics by David M. on NC, hard prep which Mullins admitted, overconfidence by Ruby who disconsidered the turn of foot by a small flat type who was high class over flat and top class in his novice hurdle season. If half fit Faugheen meets TC over 3 miles the tactical won't matter, the turn of foot won't matter and Ruby won't by overconfident so only thing will matter is stamina. Comparison with the best there is over hurdles vs the best there is over fences(and not injured - Don) could be an indicator.
The only other situation in which the form is incomparable is over flat racing when a horse in UK goes to France and they meet in a big race where 1lb is important, how can you bet if the two are at the head of the market and very short odds. The only indicator could be the collateral form going back even 2 seasons.
Instead of going for one or the other its easier to simply pick another to snatch the 2nd spot and hope that maybe something happens and he has the required class to win it. The options are Silviniaco Conti. What ever happened to him? Dual winner of this race but at his best 10lb below CC at his best, could he get a place? Perhaps but his recent form has been despicable, getting beat 10 lengths by Valseur Lido is simply not acceptable even for his first run of the season. Can Nicholls get him back for a big run and grab that 2nd spot and maybe the big prize? I highly doubt it.
Next option is Josses Hill. In his case concessions have to be made for his last 2 seasons, his jumping was horrible in his novice days, a small miracle to get as close to 3rd in the Arkle. Just watched his run in the Ryanair and he made a terrible blunder at the 6-7th from home but he recovered from it and seemed to go well enough until the home straight when he became legless despite the attempts from the rider, The stamina doubts are obvious with him but I tend to go with the trainer when he's putting a horse with unproven form over a trip as I think he knows best and if he's to be my bet I also need to forget about his run in the Ryanair when truthfully he ran too bad to take at face value. Lots of form to forget about him but whats likable are his runs this season and especially in his last race he seemed that he could've gone another 4 furlongs, and those in behind weren't no mugs and he was conceding weight to them as well.
I've said it few weeks ago that TC connections would make a huge mistake going for the KG instead of simply waiting for the big one. What are trying to learn by going to the top league immediately? I think they're trying to gather whether to route him back over hurdles if he fails to beat CC because that means the chances are he'll be more susceptible for a beating in March against the other 2 former champions, admittedly both with question marks. His jumping wasn't perfect and made some big mistakes at some of the fences in his 3 races so again unlike the above posters I don't think you have to be very brave to bet against him given that he's unproven at this discipline and he's the same price of the 2nd best staying chaser in training. However you'd have to be brave to oppose CC who seems to be in form of his life and I'd rather do that with a 12/1 shot like Josses Hill.
