Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

If my figures are right, SFP might just run away with this, despite its being such a hot race. I've also taken 100/1 ew for the Gold Cup in case I'm right.
 
In many ways today is similar to a Festival day for me. I'm balls deep on Singlefarmpayment at an average of just under 13/1. Only other proper bet is stake cover on VDR at 25/1. Had decided not to go because of likely weather but swithering and could just make it if I go soon.
Common sense dictates I should be laying off but, sod it, I'm a punter- I think. DO's (he of 50/1 winner fame) comment above puts steel in my backbone but it is of the flexible variety. The probable point for a decision whether to lay off will be determined by some early results, notably at Fairyhouse, as I have a number of multiples that include SFP at present level prices.
 
I should be laying off too TS, but instead I've just put my four in combination forecasts and tricasts!!!
 
I don't fancy the fav Total Recall in terms of form and especially looking at these stats for WP Mullins in UK only races from 2000 to now at ISP £1 level stakes.

WP Mullins UK Only.jpg
 
Tanlic said:
Of the Henderson pair I'd have to go with Whisper. Daryl Jacob was originally going to Newcastle but instead of putting up 2 or 3lbs extra he sidesteps the ride on Vtyu(Got no chance imo) now heads to Bangor
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You know a Nicky Henderson horse has a good chance when Tanlic says the complete opposite.
 
very nearly backed whisper but left it, felt sick as he went on from the last so a bit relieved in the end

either way a nice boost for might bite
 
Desert Orchid said:
If my figures are right, SFP might just run away with this, despite its being such a hot race. I've also taken 100/1 ew for the Gold Cup in case I'm right.
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Not giving up on the horse. Jockey had a shocker - no need to be right at the back from the start and he used him up to get into contention.
 
Yes, a huge boost for Mite Bite. The two of them have finished a long way clear in a Hennessy. Hard to know where Singlefarmpayment would have finished as he was finding when he fell, but probably booked for third at best.
 
SFP was about a length behind the winner when he fell. He didn't jump brilliantly before the fall though.
 
Lol, Tan, a good result for punters, I got the value on Vyta, but not the winner. :)
 
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Had a complete and utter wipe out myself thought Whisper has run a cracker unbelievable run.
 
Euronymous said:
Not giving up on the horse. Jockey had a shocker - no need to be right at the back from the start and he used him up to get into contention.
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Just came on to say something similar. The jockey must have thought he was riding the Derby winner, never mind a Gold Cup winner. I just could not fathom his starting position and early race tactics. You just cannot give unnecessary distance in a race of that quality.
 
Euronymous said:
Not giving up on the horse. Jockey had a shocker - no need to be right at the back from the start and he used him up to get into contention.
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Who Was riding? Can't surely have been a plan to sit that far back. Was doubt closing in, how much he used to get back to the pack though is anyone's guess.
Up there with Davy Russels poor ride on Don Poli in the Gold Cup.
 
Euronymous said:
Not giving up on the horse. Jockey had a shocker - no need to be right at the back from the start and he used him up to get into contention.
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Wondering what possessed Russell to go for home so far out - brilliant ride by Townend but Russell's lack of restraint cost him the race .
 
I think despite the eccentricities of the Bradstocks one should remember how well the horse ran at Punchestown and how he has recovered from physical issues in the past including to win the Gold Cup . He may well be in steep decline but I would not quite write him off yet.
 
Coneygree had his day in the sun for me and will never be quite the same again. I actually gave up on him after his poor performance in the Betfair when beaten by Cue Card.

Tough for those who supported him in his Gold Cup to accept but he's gone for sure..
 
Ardross said:
Wondering what possessed Russell to go for home so far out - brilliant ride by Townend but Russell's lack of restraint cost him the race .
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What possessed Davy was when he saw PT cantering all over him between the 4th last and the 3rd last.That gave him no choice but to stoke his mount up to keep up with him.

Whisper being a willing partner gave his all and before you could say Jack Frost went ahead..from then on in Davy aware of the danger had no choice but to keep going all out.

Nothing Paul Townsend did was exceptional other than giving the horse a good ride as did Davy on Whisper but the concession of a stone proved to much
 
SFP almost always held up in past races. Wasn't too worried initially and indeed the horse got into contention before falling. Was he tired, I don't know, but I certainly thought 'here we go'. However as The Bear points out his jumping was not as clean as it usually is from fairly early on.
I'm somewhat deflated at the moment having not had a proper shout for what was my largest bet so far this season but I'm not blaming the jockey..
 
I think if they'd gone on time he'd have been ok, just had too much ground to make up. It's a downer but there's a decent race in him for sure.
 
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