Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

Hate to break it to you Marb but looks like things just got worse.

Actually hold that, might just be a glitch on the RP but for a moment it looked like VDR and pilgrims bay were non runners.
 
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Yeah looks like he's ok RP was and still is displaying both runners without prices but 21 declared and he's still in on odds checker :)

Good luck Marble.
 
Wrote this for my place a couple of days ago. Probably repeats some of the stuff already said but thought I'd copy it over.

O.k briefly then as I've overslept a little. Feeling underwhelmed with the lack of a potential superstar in this the likes of Total Recall and American fall into the category of could be anything but I'm not a believer then I started to think this is just generally a solid big handicap like any other and I'm looking then for a good solid handicapper rather than the next Gold Cup horse.

Single Farm Payment

Short enough in the betting hoping on the day that price expands a little from the current 7/1. Good solid 2nd in the ultima and a decent 2nd on seasonal reappearance behind Cogry. A second behind Cogry to me doesn't rate as anywhere near the level of form you need to win this however it was the shenanigans before the race and trainers comments which caught my attention. I was watching SFP playing up before the start really boisterous and misbehaving and I thought he's got no chance today. His trainer was questioned about his horse's antics and his reply was along the lines of

"Yes he's like that at home until he's had a run that tends to settle him down, so we'll get this out of the way and then we can start training him properly"

I tend to disregard a lot of trainers comments but that sort of strikes me as something he's said naturally without thinking about what he's actually saying and I think it points that there is plenty more to come. Slight concern is that most of his best form comes at Cheltenham and he might just be a horse that loves the place. This is a completely different sort of test but the way he travels and jumps he certainly looks as if it shouldn't be a problem certainly looks the sort to see the trip out too. His win price probably doesn't represent much value but its one of those cases where I think he's odds on to make the frame especially if the frame includes 5 or 6 places on the day. I'm hoping for at least 8/1 to get involved with those sort of place terms and I think he's a solid bet.

Present Man

I initially ruled him out thinking the Badger Ales form doesn't look that strong and through lines with the yardstick Theatre Guide I probably thought this was 5th or 6th at best. It was also my thinking that given his owners always want to win the Badger that he was probably fully wound up and targeted at that race. However every race has its own situation and I'm looking at him here and the more I look the more I'm thinking its possible. Actually well in on the handicap proper due to go up 8lb and just gets the 4lb penalty. The way he did things last time from the front and the way he stuck to his task make me think he could just be hard to pass off what will be with Byrony Frost taking the saddle again a feather weight of 10-3. I can sort of just visualise this going off in front and being there for a very long time and at 16/1 I think there is definite value for it go from pillar to post. If it jumps as well as it did around Wincanton then its hard to imagine 4 or 5 horses pulling him back so again looks solid for place claims.

Caroles destrier

At around 25/1 this one hasn't done too much wrong although there isn't much to go on as hasn't been seen since running in the Welsh National. Unsure what the problems have been so if anyone knows it'd be appreciated. Came fresh to last years renewal and put up a fantastic 2nd to Native River and was well clear of the rest. Native River looks an above average winner of this having won a Welsh National off topweight (takes some doing), won the Grd2 Denman Chase at Newbury before a close up 3rd in the Gold Cup. that all suggests that Carol did well to run Native so close. Now carol is a few pounds higher but having watched the replay of last years race I wouldn't be backing VDR or Double ross to reverse placings. Given that this looks like it will be a real stronger pace and that Carol looks like a national horse and stayed the trip really well I wouldn't be surprised to see him flying through rivals late on and picking up the pieces. Taking a slight chance on well being but you'll never find a 25/1 poke without some sort of question mark over it.

Those are my 3 I think. Should just mention Genie in a bottle who has done nothing wrong and looks perhaps the one who could graduate to a higher level. I snatched a bit of the twenties (not as much as I'd have liked) in the week as I just knew that was wrong he'd beat Mala beach first time up who won the troytown off 148. Did what he had to next time. Have to respect that he's gigginstowns only bullet. Not sure how he'll respond to a big field and a strong gallop but until we find out I'll presume he'll be o.k looks as if he stays well. He's now 10/1 and although I couldn't put anyone off I won't have anymore at that price and he'll just be a bit of a saver in a 4 pronged attack and will include him in the combi's.

That the shortlist and I'll await the prices on the day before deciding how to bet it.
 
Bit random but anybody know any pubs in Winchester town center that will have the racing on on Saturday ?

I can watch on my phone but I'd prefer not to.
 
Not sure but I’d imagine the Irish bar in the high street will. O’Neill’s I think it’s called


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Danny said:
Wrote this for my place a couple of days ago. Probably repeats some of the stuff already said but thought I'd copy it over.

O.k briefly then as I've overslept a little. Feeling underwhelmed with the lack of a potential superstar in this the likes of Total Recall and American fall into the category of could be anything but I'm not a believer then I started to think this is just generally a solid big handicap like any other and I'm looking then for a good solid handicapper rather than the next Gold Cup horse.

Single Farm Payment

Short enough in the betting hoping on the day that price expands a little from the current 7/1. Good solid 2nd in the ultima and a decent 2nd on seasonal reappearance behind Cogry. A second behind Cogry to me doesn't rate as anywhere near the level of form you need to win this however it was the shenanigans before the race and trainers comments which caught my attention. I was watching SFP playing up before the start really boisterous and misbehaving and I thought he's got no chance today. His trainer was questioned about his horse's antics and his reply was along the lines of

"Yes he's like that at home until he's had a run that tends to settle him down, so we'll get this out of the way and then we can start training him properly"

I tend to disregard a lot of trainers comments but that sort of strikes me as something he's said naturally without thinking about what he's actually saying and I think it points that there is plenty more to come. Slight concern is that most of his best form comes at Cheltenham and he might just be a horse that loves the place. This is a completely different sort of test but the way he travels and jumps he certainly looks as if it shouldn't be a problem certainly looks the sort to see the trip out too. His win price probably doesn't represent much value but its one of those cases where I think he's odds on to make the frame especially if the frame includes 5 or 6 places on the day. I'm hoping for at least 8/1 to get involved with those sort of place terms and I think he's a solid bet.

Present Man

I initially ruled him out thinking the Badger Ales form doesn't look that strong and through lines with the yardstick Theatre Guide I probably thought this was 5th or 6th at best. It was also my thinking that given his owners always want to win the Badger that he was probably fully wound up and targeted at that race. However every race has its own situation and I'm looking at him here and the more I look the more I'm thinking its possible. Actually well in on the handicap proper due to go up 8lb and just gets the 4lb penalty. The way he did things last time from the front and the way he stuck to his task make me think he could just be hard to pass off what will be with Byrony Frost taking the saddle again a feather weight of 10-3. I can sort of just visualise this going off in front and being there for a very long time and at 16/1 I think there is definite value for it go from pillar to post. If it jumps as well as it did around Wincanton then its hard to imagine 4 or 5 horses pulling him back so again looks solid for place claims.

Caroles destrier

At around 25/1 this one hasn't done too much wrong although there isn't much to go on as hasn't been seen since running in the Welsh National. Unsure what the problems have been so if anyone knows it'd be appreciated. Came fresh to last years renewal and put up a fantastic 2nd to Native River and was well clear of the rest. Native River looks an above average winner of this having won a Welsh National off topweight (takes some doing), won the Grd2 Denman Chase at Newbury before a close up 3rd in the Gold Cup. that all suggests that Carol did well to run Native so close. Now carol is a few pounds higher but having watched the replay of last years race I wouldn't be backing VDR or Double ross to reverse placings. Given that this looks like it will be a real stronger pace and that Carol looks like a national horse and stayed the trip really well I wouldn't be surprised to see him flying through rivals late on and picking up the pieces. Taking a slight chance on well being but you'll never find a 25/1 poke without some sort of question mark over it.

Those are my 3 I think. Should just mention Genie in a bottle who has done nothing wrong and looks perhaps the one who could graduate to a higher level. I snatched a bit of the twenties (not as much as I'd have liked) in the week as I just knew that was wrong he'd beat Mala beach first time up who won the troytown off 148. Did what he had to next time. Have to respect that he's gigginstowns only bullet. Not sure how he'll respond to a big field and a strong gallop but until we find out I'll presume he'll be o.k looks as if he stays well. He's now 10/1 and although I couldn't put anyone off I won't have anymore at that price and he'll just be a bit of a saver in a 4 pronged attack and will include him in the combi's.

That the shortlist and I'll await the prices on the day before deciding how to bet it.
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Well a 12 hour nightshift can do strange things to your mind I went to work confident that I'd finished with this race and more or less solved it I've walked out this morning having talked myself out of Single Farm payment. The one I've become more and more solid on through the week and was readying myself for a real tusky bet on in the shape of Present Man I've just noticed a huge problem with. Its a right handed animal by the looks of it. I didn't click at first because I saw it had won a race at Doncaster last term (left handed) however it in stages jumped violently right but was good enough to get away with it on that occasion. I've watched the Badger and although it wasn't noticeable at first it does still look like the horse wants to go right at a lot of the flights. I'm left in no mans land now and think I'll just throw the towel in on this race.

If anyone else was fancying Present Man they might want to watch that replay of the Win at Doncaster first.
 
I watched the replay of both American and total recall and couldn't help but be impressed by both.
Singlefarmpayment has an obvious choice and whisper beat clan des obeaux who has won well since.
But I like a bit of value and picked out 3 and it was a relief to see them all stand their ground.

PILGRIMS BAY was given far too much ground to make up in the badger ales but the niggling doubt is it being left handed.
PLEASANT COMPANY (mullins)ran well for a long way in the national and is a horse I've always liked.
And finally SOUTHFIELD ROYALE I thought he ran ok in the badger ales where a mistake at the 3rd last didn't help and he was pulled up.
He ran well in the 4miler at Cheltenham 2yrs ago and the form of that race has worked out really well.
He is really well hcapped now and carries no weight here 33/1 is a big price imo.
Good luck whatever you back.

PS I'd love to see Coneygree win tho'
 
Got to mention the Stayers Hurdle race at this meeting and the return of Thistlecrack.

I haven't read anything so I don't know what CT is thinking but I do remember when he brought Fox Norton back against Altior and how unfit he was that day......A creature of habit perhaps.

If he is quietly away surely Harry will win today?
 
Tanlic said:
Got to mention the Stayers Hurdle race at this meeting and the return of Thistlecrack.

I haven't read anything so I don't know what CT is thinking but I do remember when he brought Fox Norton back against Altior and how unfit he was that day......A creature of habit perhaps.

If he is quietly away surely Harry will win today?
Click to expand...

If you want to talk Stayers Hurdle. Yanworth 20/1 with sports book :ninja:
 
This is what happens when you allow some middle of the road horse to dictate pace. Run the race at Championship pace and he wouldn't be there at the end to steal the race
 
Or, it could be what happens when the main protagonists are too busy worrying about how each other are going, to notice the one in front is going even better.

Terrible jockeyship from Geraghty (Scu is forgiven as Thistlecrack was never going to land a blow), and a great ride from Johnson - which is not something I regularly credit him with; especially over hurdles.
 
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Think you could argue the toss about that about any horse, archie, and not convinced it's valid argument.

Thistlecrack was over-rated over fences (though perhaps by not so much), and was a top-end staying hurdler in his prime. I don't really buy the argument that he hasn't been all that great all along, and that circumstances handed him his wins.

There were a host of valid reasons for wanting to be against him today, without running-down what he achieved before his injury. That just seems a little unfair - and inaccurate - to me.


Anyway, onwards and upwards to the Hennessy/Ladbrokes Trophy. recall, Genie and/or Vyta will do for me tomorrow, and I'll be combining them in forecasts and tricasts
 
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While I still think Royal Vacation (EW) could run a big race here finding the winner looks a nightmare.

Of the Henderson pair I'd have to go with Whisper. Daryl Jacob was originally going to Newcastle but instead of putting up 2 or 3lbs extra he sidesteps the ride on Vtyu(Got no chance imo) now heads to Bangor

Coneygree ?The horse simply is not right and I'll be surprised finishes..he falters the second pressure is put on and there will be plenty here

Been hearing good reports from friends back home about Potter Legend who is a huge price Brain Hughes on board is a huge boost. Will have a few quid on just incase

WPM crossing the Irish Sea for this? How can you oppose the best trainer of NH races since Fulke Walwyn....Fav but a must bet for me Total Recall
 
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Love this race, and, imho, American has the near-perfect profile for it, and looks to have been preserved for it since last season. He has been mainly kept to soft ground owing to his fragility and, if his trainer is prepared to risk him today, then,so am I.
Certainly been given the prep of a horse with a major chance.
 
Yes this is between American and Singlefarmpayment for me. I'm on at 14's and 16's. I also have Vyta Du Roc and Double Ross at bigger prices all each way. I'm happy with my position and wouldn't swap my bets for anything else in the race.
 
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