Leopardstown Christmas

I think Clondaw Warrior is a great price - for the ew thieves about. Scope to improve again at this distance.
 
Hard to name a high class staying Irish chaser that isn't in the Lexus, barring those on the sidelines. Absolutely cracking race.

R2R looks seriously overpriced to my eye.
 
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Kauto Abu said:
Ask Nile
12.15 Leopardstown

I think Ask Nile is over priced in the first at Leopardstown tomorrow at 12/1. He ran a cracker last time out when 4th, 7L behind Moulin A Vent, Minella Til Dawn & Runfordave. All 3 horses in front of him have enhanced that form since. MAV was only 9L behind Death Duty as a 4 year old in the Navan Hurdle. Minella Til Dawn beat the Willie Mullins trained Al Boum Photo last week & he was backed as if defeat was out of question. Runfordave beat Capital Force (4th behind Bacardys today) and was in the process of pissing up yesterday at Limerick before falling 2 out. He had eased to the front and had some very decent horses in all sorts of bother behind him.

The yielding ground should be more to his liking tomorrow having won his point on similar conditions. He is 4 points bigger than Youcannotbeserious having finished in front of him and I think he will certainly out run his price tomorrow.

Ew bet 11/1.


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Rowed in behind you on this one Kauto and was quite content to see him second fav at 7/1.
Then in the last 3 mins before the off, he drifts back out to 9/1 - but drifts from 10.5 out to 25's on the machine just before the off!!!
Like WTF does be going on with these Irish markets. Crazy stuff!
 
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Double Handful said:
Rowed in behind you on this one Kauto and was quite content to see him second fav at 7/1.
Then in the last 3 mins before the off, he drifts back out to 9/1 - but drifts from 10.5 out to 25's on the machine just before the off!!!
Like WTF does be going on with these Irish markets. Crazy stuff!
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Likewise, the drift on the machine was puzzling after earlier support. I thought he'd nick 3rd there but he had to do a lot to get in a position towards the end of the back straight rounding for home. Surprised he wasn't ridden handier like his previous race but nothing you can do about that. That'll turn out to be a hot little maiden.


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Digger said:
Yep VL is the straight bet for me. 6l behind Vautour. Beats Silvi a distance..... i think he will do Djack for pace. If the horses changed silks the odds would be the other way round.
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Exactly. Djakadam is 1 from 8 at 3m plus and that was in a Thyestes in a bog where he beat very average handicappers. He needs it soft. The ground today will be way to lively for him. Don Poli done him for toe in Aintree last April to fill second behind CC on similar ground to today so thats saying something!!

Valseur Lido on the other hand gets his desired trip on ground where he toyed with the opposition in D Royal. SC advertised that form well last Monday.


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Some gamble on Bleu Et Rouge there who must've lost about 20 lengths in the air. God knows how he got there.
 
A race that will end up producing stayers.

Gangster could end up a nice price come March if they decide to step him up for it.

looks rather uncomplicated. Gangster is the one I'll follow from it.
 
This Christmas Hurdle is a fascinating race and Vroum Vroum Mag looks a little short to me. Her one win over this distance was a mares Grade2 which would be a long way from this in terms of opposition. Some potential improvers in behind at this trip and so i've just laid VVM as i've no definite opinion on which will improve enough but at 8/11 VVM looks too short to me.
 
Think it was fair enough from VVM. Decent performance, imo.

Connections entitled to be pleased with how Kotkikova went, in what was effectively her seasonable debut. I haven't heard any news on plans for her, but no surprise if it's confirmed the Mares is the target - though Stayers bets perhaps not torpedoed yet.
 
Grasshopper said:
Think it was fair enough from VVM. Decent performance, imo.

Connections entitled to be pleased with how Kotkikova went, in what was effectively her seasonable debut. I haven't heard any news on plans for her, but no surprise if it's confirmed the Mares is the target - though Stayers bets perhaps not torpedoed yet.
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Nicky was on RTE before and said he was concerned that the ground was too perfect for her but she is absolutely beautiful.

id guess mares for her
 
Agree with Euro - Mullins team controlled this race but that was always a possibility and did it well although she didn't find loads (or was she idling) which would still make you think she's vulnerable over 3m given a stiffer test.

What are people backing in the lexus?
 
Aragorn said:
Agree with Euro - Mullins team controlled this race but that was always a possibility and did it well although she didn't find loads (or was she idling) which would still make you think she's vulnerable over 3m given a stiffer test.

What are people backing in the lexus?
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A speculative e/w on R2R who is a lot closer to the others on ability than the betting suggests. I also agree with Euro regarding the stayers. If the other jockeys aren't bright enough to realise the Mullins camp were turning it into a 2 1/2 mile race then they really don't deserve their fee. The writing was on the wall from a long way out.
 
How did Snow Falcon get on?
Horse I have a big interest in, saw the third place but not the race due to be being stuck in work.

Any chance VVM could go World Hurdle?
 
Euronymous said:
What a ******* carve up. Doubtful stayer, so what do other connections do, let the stablemate set a moderate gallop.
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Do you ever just admit you got a race wrong and move on? Genuine question - every time you put one up and it loses there's someone to blame.

Backing losers is part of the game - just accept it. I backed Snow Falcon too but maybe he's just not as good as we thought.
 
Snow Falcon was never quite getting there, Double J.

Suggestions it was an insufficient test of stamina are probably legit. It was run at a crawl, and I called the pace all-wrong beforehand.
 
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Double J said:
How did Snow Falcon get on?
Horse I have a big interest in, saw the third place but not the race due to be being stuck in work.

Any chance VVM could go World Hurdle?
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Mullins said after that she done something she'd never done before today & that was pull hard throughout which would be a big worry if she was going stayers route.

Anyway on to Valseur Lido here.


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