rorydelargy
At the Start
Eba Shan was given every chance of winning imo ~ he didn't look to run on in the last 50 yards.
Leopardstown Saturday [now Sunday]
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Sheikh
At the Start
Good days racing even if the main event was pretty poor. The pace makers was only about 6 lenghts away and I'd say they only ran to about 116 (and a half). New approach was getting stronger as they got into the last half furlong.
Lushe lashes is very tough, I thought Heffernan did enough to take out carribean coming around the bend. He changed his line and didn't look to correct until later. Did he have a chat with the stewards ?
Looking at them in the parade ring for vocalised race I can't see him being a big player at three. He's quite small. Collins horse jumped out at me , a cracking colt he tried to do it the hard way. It's possible the Oxx horse never got a slap before and thats why he was tail swishing although those kings best horses can be a bit bitchy. The one to take out of the race was the collins horse , Loch long.
Lushe lashes is very tough, I thought Heffernan did enough to take out carribean coming around the bend. He changed his line and didn't look to correct until later. Did he have a chat with the stewards ?
Looking at them in the parade ring for vocalised race I can't see him being a big player at three. He's quite small. Collins horse jumped out at me , a cracking colt he tried to do it the hard way. It's possible the Oxx horse never got a slap before and thats why he was tail swishing although those kings best horses can be a bit bitchy. The one to take out of the race was the collins horse , Loch long.
I think that's unfair. The colt was bought in the USA by Stan Moore to race in Dubai for the Hays. He had quite a tough 2yr old campaign, and a busy winter this last season. He's had a nice break since Kranji in the spring - this was his second race since then - and given that, could have been expected to mature and do well at the end of this season. He was always going to be a nice horse, but has had quite a bit of travelling - and chopping and changing
I agree there is praise due to Bolger, but then I've never been agin' him
Someone please tell me that the double NA/Goldikova would not have paid much - I was otherwise engaged today and never got near a betting facility... Didn't even mange to put on my singles
The horse in no disrepectful sounding way to Stan has improved since Jane Chapple-Hyam took over. Traffid Guard last season and as a 2yo couldn't get close to the figures he is achieveing now by some 20lb. His runs in Dubai this term (one or two whilst trained by Stan) were still some 16 - 19lb off what he achieved on his two runs since Jane took him over. Some horses improve for a change of training ways or other reasons, it has nothing to do with his previous trainers ability to train. But on figures this horses 4 figures this season for Jane Chapple-Hyam are a big improvement on anything he showed when trained by Stan. As you say the horse had potential and Stan thought he was decent but I'm sorry Heads he figured identically for 2 season's running trained by Stan regardless of grade, in 4 runs for JCH he has improved. His comeback run with Pipedreamer and Phoenix Tower recorded for me a 104, then he done a 105 next time. On my figures he recorded 108 yesterday a career best. Now he has clearly improved but for me that isn't down to more time or anything as these are his career figures for me.
83 - 87 - 75 / 88 - 88 - 75 - 86 - 84 - 89 - 87 - 83 / 86 - 88 - 71 - 89 - 104 - 100 - 105 - 108
This in my book shows a clear improvement from the 6th of March - 17th April, when Jane Chapple-Hyam took him on.
Regardless of your high admiration of Stan Heads and yes he is a good trainer and yes he does well with his stock, but I'm sure deep down you know you are being blind here as you probably won't want to see Jane do well with these horses as you feel bitter over the owner and Stan parting company, however she has improved this horse and therefore in my opinion she deserves praise for it.
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rorydelargy
At the Start
There's no doubt that on the face of it, Traffic Guard's 2nd spot is a big improvement on his earlier form and that reflects credit on Jane Chapple-Hyam. It's also not unfair to Stan Moore to say this, but it is extremely subjective in form terms to suggest that his form for her prior to yesterday is "16-19lbs" superior to the form he showed earlier this season when with previous connections.
The jump from 89 to 104 which Chris shows suggests enormous improvement in a few weeks of his move, but it's worth pointing out that the difference suggested by the Racing Post is 1lb and by Timeform is 2lb. Neither of these is infallible but both suggest that Traffic Guard's best form for previous connections was on his last start and that he has only jumped forward significantly for Jane Chapple-Hyam on his latest start.
It's rather ironic that his last start in Dubai which was so good in the eyes of both the Post and Timeform was achieved when in the care of the little known Tony Manuel who only had the horse for a short space of time, and without a change of scenery.
The jump from 89 to 104 which Chris shows suggests enormous improvement in a few weeks of his move, but it's worth pointing out that the difference suggested by the Racing Post is 1lb and by Timeform is 2lb. Neither of these is infallible but both suggest that Traffic Guard's best form for previous connections was on his last start and that he has only jumped forward significantly for Jane Chapple-Hyam on his latest start.
It's rather ironic that his last start in Dubai which was so good in the eyes of both the Post and Timeform was achieved when in the care of the little known Tony Manuel who only had the horse for a short space of time, and without a change of scenery.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Why do I keep getting bloody 2nd's. Had 66's ew and 14/1 without NA, so its a nice return, but another 100yds he would have won, rrrrrraaaarrrrrrrrrr
Just revisiting this ~ great call Chris and slightly unlucky, but I'm intrigued by one thing; why did you back Traffic Guard at 14/1 without New Approach? It seems shocking value to me when you're getting twice the value with your each way bet. The more obvious saver to the E/W bet would have been to do the SFc/Exacta where you'd get over 50/1 about the possibility of New Approach chinning your fancy. Don't mean to crab your tipping, but merely looking for ways of maximising your return. Any other thoughts?
Suny,
You make many good points but your criticism of Bolger very much takes away from any enjoyment of them.
When O'Brien produces a horse who he can race many times at different distances, he is lauded, and rightly so. When Bolger does this with Lush Lashes, you criticise him - why?
I wouldn't have changed her campaign at any juncture; nor would I have raced her at only one distance, as I think she's equally effective at 1m as at 1m2, and not far beneath that level at 1m4, despite stamina reservations.
By all means criticise Bolger where he does things wrong (perhaps Finsceal Beo, New Approach pre-Derby is what has irked you), but when he campaigns a horse such as Lush Lashes as he has, he deserves an awful lot of praise.
Fantastic filly.
Fair points Andrew, and in the case of Lush Lashes he has been spot on.
But with O'Brien, you get the feeling his horses generally come on and thrive for the campaign, that cannot always be said of Bolgers...Finsceal Beo being the obvious comparison and Peeping Fawn.
But with O'Brien, you get the feeling his horses generally come on and thrive for the campaign, that cannot always be said of Bolgers...Finsceal Beo being the obvious comparison and Peeping Fawn.
granger
Senior Jockey
Read that before. It is actually a very good read
davidjohnson
At the Start
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Peeping Fawn hardly thrived this year for O'Brien did she? And regarding Lush Lashes, what exactly is her correct distance? A dual Group 1 winner at a mile, Group 1 winner at a mile and a half and but for the grace of fortune, she'd have won the 10f Nassau. Hopefully she can put that last stat right in the Prix L'Opera.
I don't think Traffic Guard was ever going to get past New Approach, who was not fully extended to win. Great call all the same.
Those who used to complain about this meeting being on the Saturday and clashing with the St Leger need only look at yesterday's betting returns. The Tote handle was only about 40% of last year's. The Irish sporting public preferred to witness the slaughter of Waterford by Kilkenny on tv to turning up at the races.
Those who used to complain about this meeting being on the Saturday and clashing with the St Leger need only look at yesterday's betting returns. The Tote handle was only about 40% of last year's. The Irish sporting public preferred to witness the slaughter of Waterford by Kilkenny on tv to turning up at the races.
I was one of those people who was going on Saturday but when it was off and then DOM was declared a non-runner and with All-Ireland final on, I decided to stay at home and watch it on the box. DOM's non participation would have put a lot off and I'm sure a good few of the likely racegoers ended up in Croker too.
I was at Croker for the humiliation -still haven't seen the Champion but was very impressed with the gameness of Lush Lashes.I'm sure it deserves a thread of its own but in my opinion Bolger is one of the best trainers of fillies and mares in the world.
I agree Rory, however without sounding big in boots, If i wanted to back a 66/1 shot each way, with a majority of firms I would struggle to get £50 ew on it, so in many regards I would rather not bet,
However I was laid 200 ew at 14's offering 3 places, at 1/5 odds, so technically I was getting 4 places including New Approach, this to me seemed to represent significant value, and as proven he was 2nd.
I'm not one to back short prices and very few odds on shots interest me. I didn't think of the forecast Rory so in many regards that was bad thinking on my behalf. I do however think Traffic Guard is a decent horse. I agree in regards to Racing Post and Timeform ratings Rory but I spent 3 years working out my own figures which have worked very well for me, esp in group races. I can't afford to back losers odds on as to back them I would need to back in thousands so I would rather back the value horses, if that makes any sense.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Chris,
I wouldn't suggest you try buying money at odds on for a second and I applaud your selection of Traffic Guard. I have to admit that laying 1/5 the odds 3 places in a 7 runner race seems quite generous and I'd assumed you were taking 14/1 win only which would represent poor value (20/1 would be the equivalent of the 50/1 generally available with New Approach), but the place terms were certainly more than fair. The SFC is definitely a thought in similar circumstances unless you believe that the favourite is particularly poor value.
I'm surprised to hear that you'd struggle to get a few hundred each way at 50/1 or over though given the profile of the race, and it would be a doddle to get several grand on in cash via half a dozen betting shops in London, even if the online books were restricted.
I wouldn't suggest you try buying money at odds on for a second and I applaud your selection of Traffic Guard. I have to admit that laying 1/5 the odds 3 places in a 7 runner race seems quite generous and I'd assumed you were taking 14/1 win only which would represent poor value (20/1 would be the equivalent of the 50/1 generally available with New Approach), but the place terms were certainly more than fair. The SFC is definitely a thought in similar circumstances unless you believe that the favourite is particularly poor value.
I'm surprised to hear that you'd struggle to get a few hundred each way at 50/1 or over though given the profile of the race, and it would be a doddle to get several grand on in cash via half a dozen betting shops in London, even if the online books were restricted.
EC1
On a break
betfair?
rorydelargy
At the Start
This is more or less what I was saying Rory! - except you've put it better...
I've followed the horse closely as he was always considered the best in the yard when Stan had him [before the arrival of the Coolmore horses] and I've no reason to think he wouldn't have improved for any good trainer this year - and no reason to think he wouldn't have performed as well for Stan as for Manuel in the two weeks after the changover!
Stan *runs* horses to get them to a peak- he's not a trainer who expects them to win every time, on the contrary he expects them to go in and out of form in a natural cycle. His aim is to get them to peak for the race at which they are targeted
The horse doesn't travel particularly well - hence his poor run at Kranji - and did quite a bit of travelling last season. But he's had a good break and been able to settle down a bit this season, since coming back from Dubai.
In any case I don't see how you compare his figures on such a disparate variety of tracks and surfaces, and draw any hard and fast conclusion from them regarding his speed figures... He was twice 2nd to Asiatic Boy at Nad el Sheba in Jan/Feb 07 when in Stan's care which is good form in any book!
I've no bitterness about the split between Stan and the Hays - why would I have? I do regret Stan losing some good horses which he'd bought and 'made' - I'd feel sad for any trainer that happened to let alone a good friend - but he will get others [I saw a few of his newbies yesterday in fact!]. And I certainly don't wish any ill to JC-H. I've always thought she was a very good trainer indeed; I've met her - and liked her - since she took over the Hays' horses, and I wish her every success esp if they go for the Melbourne Cup with Yellowstone
Anyway, an interesting exchange of views - and it's always good to get different opinions on a horse which one might be 'too close to'
Picking up on these above;
For me the run at Kranji was actually a good run, when you take into consideration he was only beaten 8l in a fast time by a class act on a speed based track, its not unusual to produce a decent figure.
The Asiatic Boy figures, didn't rate for me and I've gone back over those two day's at Nad Al Sheba and found that on both occasions there was a -2 track bias, suggesting the track was riding a shade slow, this will always see a speed figure reduced and its noticeable that on a +4 track he was 18.5L behind Asiatic Boy. Whilst not scoring a higher figure than one may expect on his 4.5L defeats it did suggest to me that the horse is better in slower conditions hence why I looked towards him on Sunday.
I have no doubt this horse is still improving and I just hope they don't go back to dreaded Dubai. Also his speed figures have improved for further trips and for me he looks a horse that could improve further if stepped up in trip once more.
I accept Rory's findings with Timeform and Racing Post, however my figures determine over 20 factors and use statistical data and sectional timings (when available) to round a figure, they also structure that a horse beaten could figure higher than the winner. It's a system I spent 5 years creating and without sounding geekish I think I've actually had it fully functional for around 18 months, as I noticed some faults early on. I often find I do better at bigger meetings and esp in big handicaps and whilst I think the figures do help, the main factor you can expect is that all horses are trying for a big pot.
I have one staying handicapper that for me is producing figures well in the high 90's as a 3yo which in my opnion may not be far off St Leger class (best figure for me is the Oaks of 107), well within 9lb Kiribati King looks seriously well handicapped and I've already had a dabble in the Cesareswich market as I feel this horse is the best handicapped staying horse in the Uk at present. I am also getting together 7 other clients to try and purchse him at the end of the season for around £100,000 with a view to go hurdling, I think next season he could be very talented indeed.