cricketfan
At the Start
The road from the Algarve to Spain (or for that matter Lisbon) is a great driving road now, and border controls are about as existant as the route from Wales to England - a bridge.
Madeleine Mccann
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
We can't know Merlin, but from a distance you tend to develop an instinct for these things from years of having watched similar play out in the media. Journo's can often dig into a persons personal life and trump up through insinuation no end of things that try to paint someone into a picture. So he's a got daughter through his estranged wife of a similar age? Quite a lot of people probably have, all this does is conform with the laws of averages to be honest. Does it equal child snatcher? No
The red tops are variously describing him as a 'loner' (cos he lived with his mother) and as a very social guy (because he appears to have been a very integrated and fully involved member of the community). It strikes me they can't really get a handle on him, and they're trying to portray the image of the archetypal child snatcher/ pervert, but there's too much contradictory background evidence which doesn't allow them to. Might gut instinct is that they've got the wrong man this time, as there doesn't appear to be anything that links him. I reckon some excitable Mirror journalist has jumped the gun. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest they reported their suspicions to fuel a storyline (God I hope even the British media wouldn't be that irresponsible) but this one just doesn't hang together. I'd be more than interested to know if the same journo had any involvement in the reporting of the Soham case, and this hasn't coloured their prejudice in some way.
My best guess is that they might find some porn on his hard drive, which depending on the nature of its content, isn't necessarily illegal anyway. It just doesn't look right to me, most child snatch incidents I can think of usually involve trying to get them more than 100 yds away from the point of abduction, but then most cases usually involve so called family 'tugs of love'
The red tops are variously describing him as a 'loner' (cos he lived with his mother) and as a very social guy (because he appears to have been a very integrated and fully involved member of the community). It strikes me they can't really get a handle on him, and they're trying to portray the image of the archetypal child snatcher/ pervert, but there's too much contradictory background evidence which doesn't allow them to. Might gut instinct is that they've got the wrong man this time, as there doesn't appear to be anything that links him. I reckon some excitable Mirror journalist has jumped the gun. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest they reported their suspicions to fuel a storyline (God I hope even the British media wouldn't be that irresponsible) but this one just doesn't hang together. I'd be more than interested to know if the same journo had any involvement in the reporting of the Soham case, and this hasn't coloured their prejudice in some way.
My best guess is that they might find some porn on his hard drive, which depending on the nature of its content, isn't necessarily illegal anyway. It just doesn't look right to me, most child snatch incidents I can think of usually involve trying to get them more than 100 yds away from the point of abduction, but then most cases usually involve so called family 'tugs of love'
Merlin the Magician
At the Start
Gareth please don't try and highlight individual things that I post, read it as a complete thread in its interity......ta
I actually thought that I did not NEED do this but I will interpret my thread as posted..... taking the heading its posted under nd quotes by others too.....
The media was on about that his ex wife had custody of their 4 yr old daughter....
( I posted this as a possible? reason why he may have wanted to replace her by trying to abduct and hide away Madelien as a replacement?? plausable I thought?)
Further highlighted in my post about the guy that captured the girl you say was from Austria (thanks for the correction).......
OLD ADAGE
NOWT QUEER AS FOLK...............
This was in relation to possible goings on (that had occured in Austria and the abduction of BEN on a Greek island 10 yrs ago now & now this young girl?) and further highlighted by the thread I brought to people's attention AGAIN linked to the above but separated accordingly by~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ as NOWT QUEER AS FOLK ..but I could have highlighted a lot more ie. Soham etc etc and innocent people being maimed or killed by just being targeted or in the wrong place at the wrong time...but I chose to say about the 30 yr old who was killed 70yds from my back door by being punched and attacked.........
So yes I possibly needed to highlight what I was trying to get over ie like for like..
I hope this clears up a few things and sorts out the statements I had posted in my original thread which were obviously misconstrued by a few on here ...ta
Warbler yes I agree with your synopsis mate, and hope I have in the above thread clarified a few things in/of my original post.....ta
Honest Tom
At the Start
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She was stealing sawdust AC
K
Kathy
Guest
It looks like the police may have another "lead" . It doesn't sound too promising ie a red van with stolen number plates seen to be carrying a blonde girl of about 4 in Lisbon. :suspect: It takes the pressure off of the present suspects but it still sounds as if they have not got that much to go on yet.
BrianH
At the Start
On the subject of media and public frenzy in this case (Diana syndrome):
In the last period for which figures were available (2003-4) there were 798 child abductions in Britain. Most were intra-family but 68 were "by strangers". Of these a majority were quickly and quietly resolved, by information being available and acted upon before the captor realised. Twenty-five of them took longer, in addition to dozens from previous years.
The most unfortunate thing about the almost hysterical coverage of the Madeleine McCann case is that it could be the spur to incite a criminal to desperate measures.
Since Madeleine McCann disappeared on May 3rd another 450 young people have gone missing in Britain. While many are teenagers, none has received anything like the attention given to the McCann case, while sports stars and showbiz celebs have not felt the need to get involved with any of them.
In the last period for which figures were available (2003-4) there were 798 child abductions in Britain. Most were intra-family but 68 were "by strangers". Of these a majority were quickly and quietly resolved, by information being available and acted upon before the captor realised. Twenty-five of them took longer, in addition to dozens from previous years.
The most unfortunate thing about the almost hysterical coverage of the Madeleine McCann case is that it could be the spur to incite a criminal to desperate measures.
Since Madeleine McCann disappeared on May 3rd another 450 young people have gone missing in Britain. While many are teenagers, none has received anything like the attention given to the McCann case, while sports stars and showbiz celebs have not felt the need to get involved with any of them.
Brian, sure that figure isn't 'missing' rather than abducted? There are loads of missing teens figured in, for example, the Big Issue throughout the year, but there's no hint that they've necessarily been abducted, since there have been sightings. 68 abductees still at large (or dead) seems unusually high.
Police dogs traced Madeleine's scent down the road away from the appartment, meaning she probably wandered out herself looking for her mum and dad.
Apprently it's common knowledge amongst Poruguese police circles.
The appartment is totally devoid of any intruder fingerprints, footprints, DNA, the appartment is totally clean.
Police dogs followed her scent down to a local supermarket and there the trail goes cold.
Apparently the McCanns were using a creche for the kids that was down that way and it was the most familiar route to Madeleine in Luz, so they think it's the way she would have gone to try and find her parents.
The British ex-police who were over there right after the abduction said that the Portuguese police believed the probable fact she left the appartment of her own accord and wandered down to the shops means the abduction is almost certainly an unplanned crime and was more than likely commited by a local.
I see there are rumors now starting to circle about contradictory evidence that puts the suspect and that Russian guy not only on the phone to each other shortly after the abduction, but also in Murats case wandering around Luz.
Obviously due to the Potuguese legal process there is a lot we dont know about the case, so it's quite possible those two know more than they are letting on.
Apprently it's common knowledge amongst Poruguese police circles.
The appartment is totally devoid of any intruder fingerprints, footprints, DNA, the appartment is totally clean.
Police dogs followed her scent down to a local supermarket and there the trail goes cold.
Apparently the McCanns were using a creche for the kids that was down that way and it was the most familiar route to Madeleine in Luz, so they think it's the way she would have gone to try and find her parents.
The British ex-police who were over there right after the abduction said that the Portuguese police believed the probable fact she left the appartment of her own accord and wandered down to the shops means the abduction is almost certainly an unplanned crime and was more than likely commited by a local.
I see there are rumors now starting to circle about contradictory evidence that puts the suspect and that Russian guy not only on the phone to each other shortly after the abduction, but also in Murats case wandering around Luz.
Obviously due to the Potuguese legal process there is a lot we dont know about the case, so it's quite possible those two know more than they are letting on.
Desert Orchid
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At Mass last night, the priest mentioned a figure several times this one for the same period in the UK. I found it very hard to believe and assumed he either copied the figure wrongly or that it related to all of Europe or even the world.
There are so many categories of 'missing' for minors. Thousands of kids run away from rotten home lives every year, but are often later in touch to say they're living with friends, other relatives, living rough, in a hostel, or squatting. But many never want to see their homes again, and so will be considered as 'missing' even though they may be living in a youth hostel, which will respect their desire not to be returned to a bad home. Some do go back home after a year or two or a bit of counselling, though. It'd be more relevant to be given the number of minors who go missing, against when they are subsequently known to be safe and well, to make better sense of the issue. And, of course, there are those unfortunate children who unwisely wander around seashores in storms and are swept away, fall out of boats, get swept down rivers, etc., never to be seen again. I imagine they're included on a 'missing' list for so many years until presumed dead.
I think it's very dangerous to assume that the numbers of minors who are missing in any way correlate to abductions. And, then, as Brian says, many 'abductions' are the result of marriage breakdowns, where one parent removes the child or children from the other, often taking them out of the country. I'd rather see it classed as 'forcible parental removal' than 'abduction', which confuses the issue with stranger abductions. I'd say a bit of proportion was needed in all of this.
Funnily enough, I wondered whether the McCann child had wandered out by herself, because as someone on here said, why not take the lot? If you were capturing children to order for sale to childless couples, then why not grab a ready-made job lot? There was plenty of time in which to do it, equipped with a van and a helper.
I think it's very dangerous to assume that the numbers of minors who are missing in any way correlate to abductions. And, then, as Brian says, many 'abductions' are the result of marriage breakdowns, where one parent removes the child or children from the other, often taking them out of the country. I'd rather see it classed as 'forcible parental removal' than 'abduction', which confuses the issue with stranger abductions. I'd say a bit of proportion was needed in all of this.
Funnily enough, I wondered whether the McCann child had wandered out by herself, because as someone on here said, why not take the lot? If you were capturing children to order for sale to childless couples, then why not grab a ready-made job lot? There was plenty of time in which to do it, equipped with a van and a helper.
It doesn't make sense to my mind.
In a busy Algarve resort, with a fully lit supermarket, and the media attention the case has subsequently received, surely someone would have a seen a little 4 year old wandering about on her own? Even if they thought nothing of it at the time, surely they'd have come forward by now?
Similarly, if any tracker dogs detected her scent heading in the direction of where she was being creched during the days previous, I can't say I'm terribly surprised either. Presumebly she was there that afternoon, and every day she'd been there previous, so in all likelihood (given the time lag between raising the alarm and the re-action) any scent trail would almost certainly lead in that direction. By the time the dogs reached the supermarket (and now I'm guessing) i'd have thought they would suffer some kind of sensory over-load with the numerous conflicting and similar trails that must have been laid down by the number of people who must pass through the vicinity?
That Murat might have been using a mobile phone to speak to a friend who does his web design for his real estate business in the early evening proves nothing.
In a busy Algarve resort, with a fully lit supermarket, and the media attention the case has subsequently received, surely someone would have a seen a little 4 year old wandering about on her own? Even if they thought nothing of it at the time, surely they'd have come forward by now?
Similarly, if any tracker dogs detected her scent heading in the direction of where she was being creched during the days previous, I can't say I'm terribly surprised either. Presumebly she was there that afternoon, and every day she'd been there previous, so in all likelihood (given the time lag between raising the alarm and the re-action) any scent trail would almost certainly lead in that direction. By the time the dogs reached the supermarket (and now I'm guessing) i'd have thought they would suffer some kind of sensory over-load with the numerous conflicting and similar trails that must have been laid down by the number of people who must pass through the vicinity?
That Murat might have been using a mobile phone to speak to a friend who does his web design for his real estate business in the early evening proves nothing.
If it were a snatch to order Kriz (which is of course a big if) then my limited understanding of criminal contracting is that you don't do anything more or anything less than what you're contracted for. You won't get paid any differently, and the contractor will not be very pleased if you turned up with a larger cargo, as all you will have done is increase the risk to them of getting caught by increasing your own potential for exposure by taking on a bigger burden. Logistically any snatch merchant will probably have been geared up to transport one individual, as quickly as possible, without drawing attention to themselves, and minimising the amount of contact they will have come into with any potential witnesses. That being so it still points to the sea rather than an over land sortie to me.
It's most unlikely that some speculative gang was operating, without a buyer already being in place. Therefore the other two wouldn't have registered on the snatchers radar. All the kidnapper would be doing is taking an additional risk by trying to transport 3, (noise, descriptions, food, passports, illness etc) with no immediate reward, and quite possibly a punishment for breaking the terms of the contract, assuming the person behind it is rich, powerful and influential etc
Again I'm guessing, but I'd assume the commodity to some extent is blonde hair, which points the finger in another direction, though hardly narrows the field to a managable level. Alright there'd be other aspects too, which I'd rather not go into, but my own hunch is that it points to the girl still being alive. The distinctive eye however, could prove a problem, and if the heat gets turned up etc Personally, after searching the immediate area, I'd have been looking at harbour movements within 24 hours after the abduction, as the geopgraphy of the snatch location offers a clue to my limited mind, as it defies logic regarding one line of escape (over land) yet sits perfectly with another (the sea). It's the principal reason why I could never get the idea of Morocco out of my mind as the point of transit.
G
Griffin
Guest
Warbler maybe you're right, according to the Sun website, police are investigating a link to Morocco.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
I can see a change of username coming................Holmes, Poirot...........???
Elementary my dear Colin but at least you spared me Miss Marple.
Zee Warbler possesseth many strengths and many faults, but problem solving and the ability to analyse things in a slightly cold and logical way is one of them, as well as the ability to stretch 'outside the box' for the non obvious solution and hypothesis test etc. Having said that, before he congratulates himself on being three steps ahead of the keystone cops, one piece of idle tabloid speculation hardly amounts to confirmation, as the Sunday Mirror have already proven. Then again, he's also prone to emotional over-reactions, the by-product of a fertile mind, which can render the best analysis meaningless if you fail to act on it sensibly, or follow the initial line through consistantly etc
Once you take some of the points I raised a few days ago in the context of what I was describing at face value, and then slot in Morocco it the equation, suddenly it does start to hang together, and is no less plausible than some of the avenues they've been exploring. I still half fear that someone might try and stitch this Murat fella up. I've got no way of knowing his precise background etc and am only forming prejudicial judgements from a distance, (no different to the Sunday Mirror journo he thought he was creepy then) but it just doesn't ring true with me. Words like straw, clutching, at, do come to mind
Zee Warbler possesseth many strengths and many faults, but problem solving and the ability to analyse things in a slightly cold and logical way is one of them, as well as the ability to stretch 'outside the box' for the non obvious solution and hypothesis test etc. Having said that, before he congratulates himself on being three steps ahead of the keystone cops, one piece of idle tabloid speculation hardly amounts to confirmation, as the Sunday Mirror have already proven. Then again, he's also prone to emotional over-reactions, the by-product of a fertile mind, which can render the best analysis meaningless if you fail to act on it sensibly, or follow the initial line through consistantly etc
Once you take some of the points I raised a few days ago in the context of what I was describing at face value, and then slot in Morocco it the equation, suddenly it does start to hang together, and is no less plausible than some of the avenues they've been exploring. I still half fear that someone might try and stitch this Murat fella up. I've got no way of knowing his precise background etc and am only forming prejudicial judgements from a distance, (no different to the Sunday Mirror journo he thought he was creepy then) but it just doesn't ring true with me. Words like straw, clutching, at, do come to mind
Interesting theories on the dog scent tracking. Police dogs are highly skilled at this work and I believe they are trained to ignore conflicting scents, but maybe it is because of the mass of smells in that area that they can no longer trace her scent.
Lets not forget that under Portuguese Judicial law they cannot disclose anything relating to the investigation, so who knows what information the police have that they are not making public. These little bits and bobs the media get are just part of the full picture.
It is suggested in this theory that she went looking for her parents that the first person she encountered just happened to be one of the very very few people in this Wolrd that would take advantage of that situation rather than go looking right away to return her to her parents.
I suppose the main difference in this theory is that is makes the crime an opportunist rather than planned one.
The reason it is odd that Murat is talking to the Russian around the time of the abduction is because the Russian guy has denied having any contact with Murat that evening. In addition there were British holidaymakers going door to door a little while after the girl's dissapearance and knocked on doors adjacent to Murat's home, where his mother says he was all evening. Yet Murat claims he did not know anything of the abduction until the next morning.
In addition whitnesses claim Murat was seen walking about by some of the locals searching for Madeleine that night, contradicting his mother's claim he was at home all evening.
All this is circumstantial of course and neither links or detaches these two men to the case, but it does show they are not telling the truth.
The opportunist theory would of course point to an altogether more sinister motive, and unfortunately, likely outcome.
As regards the contradictions in the Murat's stories, they could be clarified easily enough, and quite possibly revolve around the semantics of language and subsequent reporting. If his Mum says he was at home all evening, she could easily be referring to the period in which the girl went missing, as she'd only be interested in accounting for this period of time, especially if there's an inherent allegation in the question. After all once the alarm is raised, Murat is presumebly seen by many people and doesn't neec to account for his movements.
If they've knocked on doors adjacent, but not Murat's then it's still possible he knew nothing of what would have been a missing child search, rather than an abduction case at this point. A bit of confusion might have occurred if he were asked about a missing person and an abduction etc I can see how I might have reported to someone that I was looking for a missing person, and then told someone else that I only became aware of an abduction the morning after etc
The link to the Russian is puzzling, but I wouldn't be too surprised if there was a minor criminal element going on between the two, (what are they afterall) real estate and internet, something where the Russian chap doesn't really want to come to the attention of authorities etc It's certainly not unheard of for a much bigger investigation to suddenly cast light on some smaller operators. Was the conversation between the two phone records? If so working out whose telling the truth would be straight forward.
At the end of the day, if they can't provide any forensic evidence, (and that's not say they won't), then bringing a case is going to be very difficult. To date they haven't, and if Murat came into any opportune contact then something would show up. Without this though, the case weakens. That's not say Murat and the Russian might be up to no good of sorts, but it probably isn't child related.
As regards the contradictions in the Murat's stories, they could be clarified easily enough, and quite possibly revolve around the semantics of language and subsequent reporting. If his Mum says he was at home all evening, she could easily be referring to the period in which the girl went missing, as she'd only be interested in accounting for this period of time, especially if there's an inherent allegation in the question. After all once the alarm is raised, Murat is presumebly seen by many people and doesn't neec to account for his movements.
If they've knocked on doors adjacent, but not Murat's then it's still possible he knew nothing of what would have been a missing child search, rather than an abduction case at this point. A bit of confusion might have occurred if he were asked about a missing person and an abduction etc I can see how I might have reported to someone that I was looking for a missing person, and then told someone else that I only became aware of an abduction the morning after etc
The link to the Russian is puzzling, but I wouldn't be too surprised if there was a minor criminal element going on between the two, (what are they afterall) real estate and internet, something where the Russian chap doesn't really want to come to the attention of authorities etc It's certainly not unheard of for a much bigger investigation to suddenly cast light on some smaller operators. Was the conversation between the two phone records? If so working out whose telling the truth would be straight forward.
At the end of the day, if they can't provide any forensic evidence, (and that's not say they won't), then bringing a case is going to be very difficult. To date they haven't, and if Murat came into any opportune contact then something would show up. Without this though, the case weakens. That's not say Murat and the Russian might be up to no good of sorts, but it probably isn't child related.
G
Griffin
Guest
I went to Sainsburys this morning and in the entrance was a table with a book in which people could write messages of support for the McCann family. Weird. Are they doing that in every branch? Needless to say I didn't write anything in it.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I wouldn't write anything either but credit to the family, friends and supporters who are doing all they can to keep the case high profile. They obviously believe that's their best chance of finding the girl.
Harbinger
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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That reported sighting in Morocco seemed promising although the suspicious b@stard in me had me wondering if the woman who reported it was involved and/or wanted in on the reward. :suspect:
If anyone can provide the lunar cycle, seas conditons, and high tide times for the resort, for the evening she was snacthed I'd be interested?
And without knowing any, I suspect she was taken on a full moon (or close to - 1 day either side) at a high tide, (snatch time, ot 1 hour either side) in calm conditions? I'm guessing, as is my way. I leave it up to the TH sleuths to try my theory out?
And without knowing any, I suspect she was taken on a full moon (or close to - 1 day either side) at a high tide, (snatch time, ot 1 hour either side) in calm conditions? I'm guessing, as is my way. I leave it up to the TH sleuths to try my theory out?