Madeleine Mccann

Originally posted by The Pro@May 21 2007, 08:38 PM
Was the snatcher dressed in black and resembled something looking like a sea werewolf ? :P
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Glad you find it funny Pro, but I'd agree the media hype went OTT along time ago, probably for the reasons Gareth metioned with MWWS
 
Originally posted by Warbler+May 21 2007, 07:51 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ May 21 2007, 07:51 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-The Pro@May 21 2007, 08:38 PM
Was the snatcher dressed in black and resembled something looking like a sea werewolf ? :P
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Glad you find it funny Pro, but I'd agree the media hype went OTT along time ago, probably for the reasons Gareth metioned with MWWS [/b][/quote]
I don't really find it funny tbh, and i think ive made a decent enough contribution to the thread on the whole, i just like reading your theories they are very well thought out, are you a criminologist ? you should be.
 
Originally posted by Griffin@May 21 2007, 09:23 PM
Full Moon was on May 2nd.
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Thanx Griff

It makes sense :angy:


Can you find high tides for that date pleasse? and sea conditions? I'm curious
 
I only knew about the full moon date because I'm a Mod on another forum and weirdos & fruitloops seem to appear around the time of the full moon so I went back to see when it was. I'm sure the other info is out there on the net somewhere. If I get a minute later I'll have a look.
 
FARO

COUNTRY
PORTUGAL LAT
37.01 N LON
7.96 W ELEV
4 m REGION
- PROVINCE
- ZONE
-


2007 MAY 03 ( 46 OBSERVATIONS )

UTC
MSLP
hPa TEMP
°C RELH
% WIND
knots VIS
SKY
SIGWX

02:00 1009 15 93 W-9 Good Scattered clouds -
02:30 1009 14 93 NW-4 Good Scattered clouds -
03:00 1009 13 100 N-5 Good Few clouds -
03:30 1009 13 100 NW-4 Good Few clouds -
04:00 1009 13 100 NW-5 Good Few clouds -
05:30 1009 13 100 NW-5 Good Few clouds -
06:00 1009 13 100 NW-4 Good Few clouds -
06:30 1010 13 100 WNW-4 Good Few clouds -
07:00 1010 14 93 W-4 Good Scattered clouds -
07:30 1010 15 87 W-6 Good Scattered clouds -
08:00 1010 16 82 WNW-8 Good Scattered clouds -
08:30 1011 16 82 WNW-9 Good Scattered clouds -
09:00 1011 17 72 WNW-10 Good Scattered clouds -
09:30 1011 17 77 W-10 Good Scattered clouds -
10:00 1011 17 72 W-10 Good Scattered clouds -
10:30 1011 18 72 WSW-11 Good Scattered clouds -
11:00 1011 17 77 WSW-10 Good Scattered clouds -
11:30 1011 18 72 WSW-12 Good Scattered clouds -
12:00 1011 17 77 WSW-13 Good Scattered clouds -
12:30 1011 18 77 WSW-14 Good Scattered clouds -
13:00 1011 18 77 WSW-14 Good Scattered clouds -
13:30 1011 19 72 WSW-16 Good Scattered clouds -
14:00 1011 18 77 WSW-15 Good Scattered clouds -
14:30 1011 19 72 W-13 Good Few clouds -
15:00 1011 19 68 WSW-13 Good Scattered clouds -
15:30 1011 18 72 WSW-13 Good Scattered clouds -
16:00 1011 19 68 WSW-13 Good Broken clouds -
16:30 1011 18 72 W-15 Good Broken clouds -
17:00 1011 19 68 W-13 Good Broken clouds -
17:30 1011 19 68 W-12 Good Broken clouds -
18:00 1011 19 59 NW-11 Good Broken clouds -
18:30 1012 20 56 NW-11 Good Broken clouds -
19:00 1012 19 63 NW-13 Good Scattered clouds -
19:30 1012 18 63 NW-14 Good Scattered clouds -
20:00 1013 17 72 WNW-10 Good Clear -
20:30 1013 17 72 WNW-8 Good Clear -
21:00 1013 16 77 NW-10 Good Clear -
21:30 1013 16 77 WNW-9 Good Clear -
22:00 1013 15 82 WNW-9 Good Clear -
22:30 1013 15 82 NW-8 Good Clear -
23:00 1013 15 82 NW-7 Good Clear -
23:30 1014 14 87 WNW-8 Good Clear -
00:00 1014 14 87 WNW-8 Good Clear -
00:30 1013 14 87 NW-8 Good Clear -
01:00 1013 14 87 WNW-8 Good Clear -
01:30 1013 14 87 WNW-8 Good Clear -
MSLP=Mean sea level pressure, TEMP=Temperature in celsius degrees, RELH=Relative umidity, WIND=Wind direction and speed, VIS=Visibility, SKY=Sky conditions, SIGWX=Significant weather.
 
Well that seems to to blow half my theory out the water (or so I initially thought) but thinking about it again, you would want to land on a high tide, especially if attempting to come ashore at a concealed cove of some description. I could be wrong, but I've got a feeling the tides reverse? high on the European coast, is low on the African coast etc If she was snatched at about 8.30 as the parents report, then they've probably left within the hour, provided there's a harbour in Priara Du Luz. I've had a quick scan at Google and although it talks about the resort as being a fishing village etc, there's nothing on any map that I can find to suggest there's a harbour. The nearest is at lagos about 6 miles east, which would mean sailing off a low tide, but with a 2 metre change in depth this needn't present a problem to a shallow draught. All I need to do now is estimate the sailing time, and then try and project that against the tides on the African coast. (or shall I rate up Longchamps card on Sunday instead)

I'm not criminologist by the way Pro :laughing: but do have the ability to think logically and invoke a bit of imagination towards solving problems etc It's nothing more than that I'm afraid, though Morocco was the just about the first thing that occurred to me, otherwise the snatcher is exposing themselves to a massive, unecessary and ultimately avoidable risk of over land travel.

My suspicion is that the hunt will go global as the child is starting to look like something of a trophy. The end purchaser I can only assume is rich and influential, and quite possibly originating in a country where wealth is 99% of the law. I'm assuming that the blonde hair might be the attraction, which would lead me to start thinking middle or far east. To some extent the child can probably be re-programmed over time, and could grow up knowing no better, though you've got to suspect that they'll start wondering at some point.

It doesn't look like the Murat case is showing much progress though, the forensics should be known by now I'd have thought. There was a piece in the Observer on Sunday, bemoaning the contribution that one Sunday Mirror journalist has made to the case. Basically the journo in question took a bit of a dislike to Murat and she felt he was a bit 'creepy'. She duly reported him and unfortunately the police acted on her prejudices. The guy might very well be a bit weird, and he and the Russian fella might be involved in some borderline scam/ minor criminal activity, but he still doesn't look like the perputrator to my gut instinct.

Actually, another re-think on destination. There would seemingly be plenty of other options if I'm thinking Far or Middle East as both places attract tourists, as well as a hazardous transportation issue over such distance. With that in mind you'd be looking for something closer to the point of snatch. A largely closed country with a degree of corruption. Algeria. How do I claim my reward
 
So what do you make of this then Warbler ??

Balance of probability:

She was not abducted by a parent...therefore it is a reasonable assumption that she was taken by a stranger as there has been no reported grooming activity, no revenge motive announced, no ransom note produced.

It is estimated that over two thirds of such abductions are sexually motivated; with the key target groups being 'white' and 'female' (the latter accounting for 60% of abductions).

So, if one applies Occam's Razor it is reasonable to state that the crime was conducted by a paedophile.

With the rate of 'kidnapping to order' being imperceptibly low it is reasonable to discount it (I can not find reference to it in any official statistics).

Stories of sightings still occur for Elvis, Lord Lucan and Red Rum...people are both unreliable and strange at times. Detection rates for such crimes run at 13% in the UK - based on such a poor return it is ridiculous to suggest that a global investigation should take place. The cost rules it out absolutely.

The parents biggest hope remains in that the abductor will release the girl afterwards if he feels safe to do so - if he kills the girl then, judging by the absence of any lead at present, the crime will never be solved.
 
I think that her distinctive eye marking will be a hindrance rather than a help to finding her. Although it had to be done ,it was risky to play it up because it puts her in more danger, The person/people that have her will have been alerted to the fact that it makes her easily recognisable.

The child's hair can be dyed or lightened to change her appearance but the eye flaw can't be disguised or hidden.
 
Originally posted by The Pro@May 22 2007, 07:34 PM
So what do you make of this then Warbler ??

Balance of probability:

She was not abducted by a parent...therefore it is a reasonable assumption that she was taken by a stranger as there has been no reported grooming activity, no revenge motive announced, no ransom note produced.

It is estimated that over two thirds of such abductions are sexually motivated; with the key target groups being 'white' and 'female' (the latter accounting for 60% of abductions).

So, if one applies Occam's Razor it is reasonable to state that the crime was conducted by a paedophile.

With the rate of 'kidnapping to order' being imperceptibly low it is reasonable to discount it (I can not find reference to it in any official statistics).

Stories of sightings still occur for Elvis, Lord Lucan and Red Rum...people are both unreliable and strange at times. Detection rates for such crimes run at 13% in the UK - based on such a poor return it is ridiculous to suggest that a global investigation should take place. The cost rules it out absolutely.

The parents biggest hope remains in that the abductor will release the girl afterwards if he feels safe to do so - if he kills the girl then, judging by the absence of any lead at present, the crime will never be solved.
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The balance of probability is of course a statistical analysis and the percentage call rests with Pro's hypothesis, (I wouldn't try and dispute that). My understanding of paedophiles (or at least the view of the various experts that have been wheeled out in the media) is that they tend to be opportunistic often working on an overwhelming urge at the time which they are unable to check. This case doesn't necessarily have the same hallmarks, as there is a bit of evidence to suggest a degree of pre-meditation and planning. I also can't help thinking that they'd have turned something up by now if this were a local affair, as they're dealing with a small (if admittedly transient population), but a local working on impulse will eventually leave a trail. Are there any other historical cases in the Algarve? I'd have thought any 'ring' that was operating in the area would have targetted more vulnerable children to be honest rather than risk snatching someone from parents whose story was going to mobilise the mass media.

The other thing I'd be tempted to question is how they know kidnapping to order is so low, if they only have a clear up rate of 13%? By definition 87% of such incidents go unresolved and thus make attribution pretty well close to guess work. I'd have thought also that when money and contracts are involved (and dare I use the word) 'professionals' the chances of clearing up such incidents falls even further. Although I'd agree it's unlikely, but it could be that 80% of such abductions are kidnapping to order, but because we only solve 13%, we just don't know the extent of it.

I'm not suggesting that Leicestershire Constabulary launch an international hunt (for Gods sake, they can't even find a stolen vehicle, despite the victim giving them the theives name). I suspect she'll just join the list of missing people on the Interpol database thus.

There is of course a kind of compromise explanation that involves stealing to order, but for the reasons that Pro suggests as the motive. It's difficult to dismiss such a possibility categorically, and I for one can't. This second scenario does of course point to an altogether more gruesome outcome, and I'm increasingly of the opinion that this is one that won't be solved too.

One thing that does occur to me, is that sooner or later the child's going to fall ill, which means her captors are going to have to decide whether they risk treating her or otherwise.
 
I can't help noticing a lot of the inconsistencies, discrepancies and omissions in the reporting of the disappearance of Maddie McCann. I invite others to add to this little rap sheet.

1) More than one person witnessed a male hanging around the appartments at the Warner Resort (who fled when challenged). This incident was reported to Warner staff who took no action at all. Yet it was the McCanns and not the resort who took the flak (for leaving Maddie unattended).

2) Much was made of the fact early on that an intruder entered the McCanns appartment. But a scent picked up by sniffer dogs indicated that Maddie left the flat by herself and that she had wandered down to a local supermarket (suggesting the abductor was a local opportunist). So why:

a) was it not mentioned that the sniffer dogs belonged to a British ex pat and were only brought in nearly a week after Maddie's disppearance?

b) were only 500 appartments searched in the first 7 days (four officers working in pairs could easily do that)?

c) was the local search reported as being wound down as early as Saturday 12th May - little more than a week after Maddie's abduction?

3) Why did the Portuguese police violate their own law of judicial secrecy by feeding information to the press about Murat and others by:

a) stating he was already under investigation when suspicions about him were voiced by a Daily Mirror hack?

b) tipping off the Portuguese media that he had been released from questioning?

c) informing the press that he had asked friends to provide an alibi?

d) informing the press that he had acted suspiciously when hiring a car?

4) What has happened to that much publicised lead of a man in the company of another male and a female photographing Maddie on the beach (a similar male was reported photographing another girl less than 20 miles away on the same day) and a party fitting this description seen at a filling station in the region with a child fitting Maddie McCann's description? Is this what the Murat fit-up was all about? Or is there something else going on here?

A man publicly photographing children and a woman possibly being in an abduction party suggest something altogether more sinister than an opportunitst crime. It could be that Maddie was stolen to order and that the kidnapping was officially sanctioned.

5) Considering how big a crisis it was when it broke five years ago the Casa Pia orphanage scandal has rarely been mentioned in the British media recently. Yet it is extremely relevant to the Maddie McCann case: children (mainly boys) kidnapped to serve a paedophile ring based in Lisbon that included government ministers. Many of the children kidnapped for this ring are still missing and representatives of the Swiss based group 'Innocence In Danger' that campaign for them have been threatened when visiting Portugal.

6) The MO of the possible suspects in the McCann case are eerily reminiscent of Marc Dutroux (his wife and a male friend helped him abduct young girls). It is generally accepted that he procured for a Belgian state sponsored ring. In the lead up to his eventual prosecution two years ago 30 witnesses (yes that's THIRTY) reportedly died - the vast majority in suspicious circumstances.

7) Conspiracy of Silence, a documentary listed for viewing in TV Guide Magazine was to be aired on the Discovery Channel, on May 3 1994. This documentary exposed a network of religious leaders and Washington politicians who flew children to Washington D.C. for sex orgies. Many children suffered the indignity of wearing nothing but their underwear and a number displayed on a piece of cardboard hanging from their necks when being auctioned off to foreigners in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Toronto, Canada.

At the last minute before airing, unknown congressmen threatened the TV Cable industry with restrictive legislation if this documentary was aired. Almost immediately, the rights to the documentary were purchased by unknown persons who ordered all copies destroyed. It is believed now that the ring was set up by the CIA to blackmail politicians and public figures and was known as 'Operation Monarch' (and the victims became known as the 'Monarch Butterflies').

Last year's Congressional Page scandal is possible evidence that this programme still exists.

8) There is much evidence that such rings have existed in the UK the most notorious being the Kincora Boys Home scandal in Belfast in the '70's and another organised by Thomas Hamilton the Dunblane spree killer (although abductions are not alleged to have taken place in either case).

I believe there is more to the Maddie McCann case than we are being told. If, unfortunately my suspicions are right then all the pledges and the 24/7 rolling news coverage of her abduction will make it less likely that she will ever be found alive (when pressured in this way the state will generally behave with extreme ruthlessness).

It's looking like the only solution is intense behind the scenes diplomacy and putting it very diplomatically I'd say there was less than a 50% chance that this is going on as we speak.
 
What you've written is incredibly dreadful stuff, Pro. I personally knew two young men who were horribly abused at one of the Welsh children's care homes 30-odd years ago, when placed there when their parents couldn't cope with having five children. The other three kids went to a different Welsh home and were not brutalized by male paedophile managers. My jury duty last year featured a molester (if you can call buggery that) who headed up a 'special' home/school for boys from either broken or damaged homes, so I'm aware of the abuses of power and control that can take place. But to think that such things can go on at very high levels of government, and presumably be known to non-paedophiliac members who do nothing to stop it, is very, very disturbing.
 
There is now a bank account for people to donate money to.

2 things about this bother me

1 - Why do people think that donating money will help?

2 - If she turns up tomorrow, what happens to this money?
 
Originally posted by krizon@May 25 2007, 11:12 AM
But to think that such things can go on at very high levels of government, and presumably be known to non-paedophiliac members who do nothing to stop it, is very, very disturbing.
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I was told a story through a third party that originated from a journo accquaintance on a national broadsheet about one such ring, and 4 senior politicians and 1 notable captain of industry were named. I thus ran the story past another journo who then worked for national tabloid (not a red top) and they confirmed they'd had the same info and names and had, had for years. Finally I tried the same story and names on two other journos at 5 year intervals, but who both worked for a national braodcasting corporation. Again the existance and the names were confirmed. Now admittedly all this was heresay, and none of them were ever going to hand the evidence over to me (why would they?) but the level of organisation and people involved would make them pretty well untouchable, and I for one would never discount any kind of possibility because it seems too incredulous to be true.

It's been getting on for over 3 weeks now, and despite a host of possible sightings in the first 10 days, the trail has seemingly gone dry. Clearly the child would have been most likely to have been found within the first few hours, or the 1 or 2 days it took to transport her. As I mentioned previously, the best chance might now lie with the child falling ill and requiring treatment, but this does of course make two massive assumptions, neither of which I'd be remotely confident about. I tend to echo Pro's sentiment that to a large extent the game might well be up.

Clearly the police have hardly played a blinder but whether this is down to wanton neglect or good old fashioned incompetance is not clear. The media haven't necessarily helped to the extent that they think they have. Is there a more self-regarding profession in the world? If we do decide there's some currency in his suggestion of a high-level cover up/ organised ring etc then my best guess is that the authorities will want closure of some sort, rather than an open file, there is afterall the reputation of a country and the prosperity of an industry at stake.. I'd expect them to try and find an unwilling fall guy (possibly short on mind) and present him as the archetypal lone opportunist
 
At what stage will the Portuguese police admit that they are very unlikely to find her and that she has either been taken out of the country, or more than likely that she is almost certainly dead ?
 
Following on from the last two days of Parents-visiting-The-Pope nonsense is news that jockeys in The Derby are going to wear yellow ribbons for Maddy.

I am tempted to bloody well own up to this myself and do the 25 years if it means I dont have to see anymore of this self serving media crap.

(this message comes with apologies to those with young children)
 
It amazes me how everyone is an expert on how to solve a missing person case and how they know how badly the Portugese Police are going about it.

Must be all those quality dramas we get to see on the telly. Everyone knows how it should be done from those. Send a copy of Morse over to Portugal and they will have found her by ten o clock. The parents probably did it.

The fact is 'we' dont have the first damn clue about the case other than what we are told. How our TV stations have been covering the story with their guest 'experts' spouting their crappy guesswork and opinions is nothing short of ridiculous.

Can we not assume they are doing the best they can over there? Oh no , they can only speak broken english, so they must be stupid.
 
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