Far far too much....I thought he looked plenty big in the parade ring (though difficult to be sure on the TV) which surprised me.
Miling Division 2010
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Far far too much....I thought he looked plenty big in the parade ring (though difficult to be sure on the TV) which surprised me.
O'Brien in the paper this morning is talking about training Rip different this year with targets later in the season the main objective. I wonder are the French mile races higher up in their priority with a stud career there eventually in mind?
I believe the Irish Guineas was if anything slightly better than the St James's Palace, although both were a step change from earlier season form (albeit good). However, this doesn't mean he'd not still improving. He is now physically barely recognisable from what he was earlier on. Hughes expects him to improve and the yard expect him to improve. Just this week Highes has said he worked like nothing he has ever ridden.
Canford would win this on his Ascot form. If you factor in what he has become it's a no brainer.
Desert Orchid
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Canford Cliffs won't see which way Rip goes.
:lol: ...I agree. Unless of course he's looking behind.
I realise that you could argue that Rip will win if comparing best extant performances.
However:
1) I don't expect Rip to produce his best extant performance.
2) I expect Canford to outperform past form.
There's only one winner of this and it ain't the O'Brien horse.
Irish Stamp
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Would imagine a repeat win in the QEII and then a trip to the US for the Breeders Cup Mile will be in their minds - they have no superstar 3yo at the distance this year and the Classic is on dirt so the BC Mile would be the logical end of season target.
Canford Cliffs can probably hit 127 IF he improves.
Rip has run to 131/132.
IF Rip is back to something close to his best, he wins.
The market is all wrong here, as it was for the King George. It's amazing some of these Group 1s can have the markets they have - you would think you would need to be at Beverley to see prices so wrong!
Rip has run to 131/132.
IF Rip is back to something close to his best, he wins.
The market is all wrong here, as it was for the King George. It's amazing some of these Group 1s can have the markets they have - you would think you would need to be at Beverley to see prices so wrong!
He's going to have to start improving quickly if the mare goes for her third.
It largely depends on what rating you want to use (as there appears to be a widening disparity). But taking a consensus ironed-out plain-talking mark around 128-130 (calculated on the universal scale) would see him reproduce roughly what he did against Paco Boy last year.
I don’t think Rip can run up to this today though. Maybe mid to low 120s.
Paco Boy is currently in the form of his life and would probably win this this year were it not for Canford Cliffs. I’d expect Canford to break, or go close to breaking 130 today and for this to be more than good enough.
I don't think Rip can or will win today and may not be runner-up (he is no sort of 'value' that I recognise)..
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Perhaps the reason that is looks wrong is that it is really right. Rip would need to be very close to his best to stand a chance and O'Brien has as good as told us that he won't be.
I couldn't back Rip today (as much as I love the horse) with stolen money.
I expect Canford to make the others look very ordinary today.
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I think Canford will not have it easy to beat Premio Loco
both of them horses in the low 120s
Rip Van Wikle
impossible to know how he will perform but my feeling is that he needs to run 123 or 124 to win and last year in this race and Eclipse he was a 134 or 135
both of them horses in the low 120s
Rip Van Wikle
impossible to know how he will perform but my feeling is that he needs to run 123 or 124 to win and last year in this race and Eclipse he was a 134 or 135
trackside528
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I don't rate that Irish Guineas form ~ both Canford Cliffs and the runner-up very much got the run of the race at the Curragh (I think they went off too fast that day). Impressive he was that day, that form wouldn't come within an arses roar of Rip Van Winkle's Goodwood win last year in my book.
I do agree with Steve that Rip Van Winkle may not run up that form today though, particularly in light of O'Brien's comments this morning. All told, I'm happy enough for it to be a watching brief.
I may be wrong in rating the Irish Guineas a little better than Ascot. What I am saying is they were much of a muchness and a high standard at Group 1 level. I believe the signs are that he can improve on this already excellent level. He has all of the credentials for a great miler. The number of gears he has is devastating and turns even narrow victories into decisive ones.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think Rip will be ready for this and him needing it is just the trainer getting the excuses in before the race just in case CC is the stud Steve thinks he could be. I don't think he necessarily needs to be within five pounds of his best because the jury is still out on the favourite given how wretched the 3yo's appear to be.
I respect that way of looking at it. I still think Canford wins though. He's a bit of a monster. The penny will have dropped by the end of this season.
trackside528
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Agreed. But do you actually think either the St. James's Palace or the Irish Guineas actually qualify as top class performances? I would be a sceptic with regards to that form myself whilst Rip Van Winkle has already shown he has the ability to produce what I would regard as a top class miling performance ~ the doubt is whether he will be in the condition to produce one this afternoon.
Agree with all that.
Have done an about turn with Rip (not for the first time) and think he's massively overpriced..
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trackside528
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As much as anything O'Brien said the following quote is putting me off backing Rip Van Winkle:
"He travels better than anything you have ever seen and then just quickens like greased lightning through a vacuum (which is fast)."
- SteveM prior to Shamardal's Dewhurst.
"He travels better than anything you have ever seen and then just quickens like greased lightning through a vacuum (which is fast)."
- SteveM prior to Shamardal's Dewhurst.
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I do think they qualify. This is not to say that I don't see improvement on this already high level.
trackside528
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trackside528
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Sorry meant to say Rip Van Winkle! You don't often get them wrong when you're this bullish, Steve!
...it looks very silly when it does go pear-shaped though.