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Northumberland Plate 2022

T

The Fortune Teller

Journeyman
Joined
Mar 8, 2016
Messages
8,796
Will Trueshan run off top weight?

I could try and do a horse by horse breakdown or write up but that would turn into a 5000 word essay so I'll cut to the chase.

For what it's worth I reckon Soapy Stevens can run a big race.

He has been really solid this season, not been out the first three the last four runs. He seemed to improve a fair bit for the step up to two miles at Chester the last day.

He could run with a weight in the mid-to-high eight stones and weight does matter in a ultra competative handicap over these long distances.

He is number 38 in the list so I want to see how many ahead of him come out tomorrow. Some bookies including the sponsors William Hill only go 14/1 while one or two others are quoting 25s.

There is no other race I want the winner of more than the pitmans derby.

Grandad Marb was a pitman miner!
 
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SKYCUTTER 40/1 boosted to 45/1

I put this horse up on the noted in running before I knew Ben Curtis had hurt his shoulder.so I've got to do it especially at that price.
 
Outsider said:
SKYCUTTER 40/1 boosted to 45/1

I put this horse up on the noted in running before I knew Ben Curtis had hurt his shoulder.so I've got to do it especially at that price.
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We're on the same wavelength, Outsider. From earlier yesterday on the JSC thread:

Desert Orchid said:
This prompted me to look at the Newcastle race. I've taken Skycutter at 40s and the double with Caradoc to give me something to slaver over during the next couple of weeks :)

Skycutter is the one that Ben Curtis was "riding" at Haydock when he put his shoulder out. It was in the process of posting a career best and I love the idea of this injury being feigned. I'm not sure Dick Francis would have thought that believable. And we know the trainer is an utter bandit at the game.
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Soapy's 22 on the list now.

I think the maximum field is 20.

So needing 2 to come put at final decs. He should be alright.
 
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Ooops I did it again.

I saw yesterday morning that the decs stage was today and I told myself to hold off until then. The I get distracted and half an hour later I'm putting the bet on, completely oblivious to the dec stage.

Duh...
 
Goldie looks set to try to do what he did last year, but this time with Sir Chauvelin last to first....and it may not be wise to put it past the old boy!
 
chaumi said:
Goldie looks set to try to do what he did last year, but this time with Sir Chauvelin last to first....and it may not be wise to put it past the old boy!
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Wouldnt surprise me at all.i put him in my alerts years ago and he ran some crackers.
 
I am in the radio studio at the moment I will be backing Soapy Stevens later tonight.

I want enough on but I don't want too bigger bet on in case for some strange reason he doesn't make the cut at the final declarations on Thursday.

He's 22 in the list so in theory he should be fine as last year the field was 20 runners so he only needs two horses to come out and Mark Johnston has two other runners above him in the handicap. I will be very disappointed if he doesn't make that cut.

Worth a bet at 16s or thereabouts though. A major chance.
 
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It's only 4 places at the moment but I might pop down to Corals again as they are going 33/1 ISLAND BRAVE and that's worth a bet.
I think Chaumi likes this one as well.
I'm not too worried about it front running.
I hope she puts a good claimer on again.

Alan Kings RAINBOW DREAMER 9yr old finished at the back last year after getting hampered early but this time is racing off a 12lb lower mark. 25/1
 
Outsider said:
It's only 4 places at the moment but I might pop down to Corals again as they are going 33/1 ISLAND BRAVE and that's worth a bet.
I hope she puts a good claimer on again.
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The rider is going to be interesting. I was praying for Dwyer last year, and if he's up it's a fair bet what's going to happen. Sadly, logic does say last year as a 7 year old was the big chance...but....the winner last year had to throw a walking stick away on the way round. There's hope yet!
 
chaumi said:
The rider is going to be interesting. I was praying for Dwyer last year, and if he's up it's a fair bet what's going to happen. Sadly, logic does say last year as a 7 year old was the big chance...but....the winner last year had to throw a walking stick away on the way round. There's hope yet!
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Yes I agree about Dwyer.
I've got 4 on my list,a 4yr old and a 8,9,10 year olds.
 
Undaunted by my stupid decision to back non-runner Skychucker in this the other day, I've now gone in again - a fair wee bit more seriously - on Rainbow Dreamer at 16/1, 5 places. It looks like someone of influence has put it up as it is blue across the board and 14s generally to four places. I suspect either Paul Kealy or Tom Segal. Anyhow, the horse was a very close fifth two years ago off 107, weakening late after racing keenly, and last year was pretty much hampered out of contention early on but still beaten only eight lengths off 110. Now he gets in off 98 and it looks like Trueshan will be keeping the weights down a fair bit for him.

This is a potential gamble (if it isn't already one).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Undaunted by my stupid decision to back non-runner Skychucker in this the other day, I've now gone in again - a fair wee bit more seriously - on Rainbow Dreamer at 16/1, 5 places. It looks like someone of influence has put it up as it is blue across the board and 14s generally to four places. I suspect either Paul Kealy or Tom Segal. Anyhow, the horse was a very close fifth two years ago off 107, weakening late after racing keenly, and last year was pretty much hampered out of contention early on but still beaten only eight lengths off 110. Now he gets in off 98 and it looks like Trueshan will be keeping the weights down a fair bit for him.

This is a potential gamble (if it isn't already one).
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That is so annoying.i decided to wait for extra places.now I've had to take 14s 4 places.
 
Trueshan doesnt keep the weights down though.he Carrie's 10s 8 lb and the rest Carrys the right weights.thats how I understood it.
 
My understanding if Trueshan comes out the weights will go up 9lbs. Red Verdon is second in the weights on 9-3. maximum weight to be 9-12. Am I missing something?
 
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Interesting stat is that since the start of the century 59 runners ran in prev year's plate and not single one won. However 12 managed to place (20%)
 
I've done a couple of back-up bets.

I have Summer's Knight as a +p type likely to improve enough to be competitive but I now see that he did have an Ascot Gold Cup entry so he's probably regarded as something better than a 96 yoke.

I presume they didn't see the entry through to participation because he's not at a high enough level to be placed and they might not have wanted to leave this race back there.

20/1 is more than fair but I have no idea if the plan is to run.

The other one I've backed is Spirit Mixer at 11/1. I was holding back with this one in the hope it might drift to qualify for the longshot thread but it's gone blue this morning so I thought I'd better get on just in case. It's also a +p in my notes and posted a career best last time despite little going right for it at Chester in a race that must have been a steep learning curve for his good claimer, shall we say...
 
Interesting rider up on Island B...and a surprise for sure...Benoit De La Sayette. Unless I'm missing it, never ridden for Heather Main before.

But your Summer's Knight looks strong, Desert :-) If he's ridden last to first, and is as good as they probably think he is, I'm not sure I can see the Chauvelin coping, for sure. Nor Island B.

PS Luke Morris has been declared to ride...and he will know what's under the bonnet....I think that signifies they intend to run
 
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