Novice Chasers 2009/10

Galileo said:
I just like him alot and think he is much better than he showed at Leopardstown the last day - though that was still top form.
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Is there not a case for saying that the trainer has been bringing him along slowly to peak for the Arkle and left plenty to work on that day whereas it was Captain Cee Bee's first run in a graded Chase and he was maybe more forward and and in relatively top form. In essence CCB's connections were on a bit of a fact finding mission - see how he did against the big boys.
 
If CCB stands up, he'll finish ahead of Sizing, I'm absolutely convinced of that.
I cannot see Osana being placed, another one for Betfair pink button I'm afraid.
Alot depends on which route Long Run takes, he's a bit of an unknown so far and could still go the RSA route.
 
I think Captain Cee Bee is the most likely winner, but he is a horrible price in a very competitive year.

I think Sizing Europe and Tataniano stand out as value at the moment. Tataniano's run the last day has little bearing on his Festival chances.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think Captain Cee Bee is the most likely winner, but he is a horrible price in a very competitive year.

I think Sizing Europe and Tataniano stand out as value at the moment. Tataniano's run the last day has little bearing on his Festival chances.
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Cannot see the latter being at all involved. Hurdle form is nothing to write home about, and was nothing in comparision with CCB or Somersby.

Strikes me if he was trained in a smaller yard, you'd hardly have heard of him. Comparisions with Tatanen may even be generous.
 
Not sure Hamm but Henderson has Punchestowns and Long Run for the race (though the latter is a doubt). Presume it's Burton Port you mean.
 
Yes, you're right, thanks.

Punchestowns has still to justify his short odds and Long Run looks more likely to run in the Arkle. I'm hoping Henderson will run him anyway but will hld off till I hear further. He's entered in a very hot looking novice chase at Newbury this Friday.
 
I have been away but is there any reason in particular for the support for CCB that makes him a fav? He did look dangerous at Leop at xmas coming to the last but he did ultimately fall!
 
I reckon it's his Supreme win. Couple that with Sizing Europe's effort when favourite for the Champion and you have the reason for the price differential. Memories of Festival's past.
 
Update on Henderson 3 milers. Burton Port may be worth a little each way at 33s. They must both be rated more or less the same after their last victories, or Burton Port slightly higher, one is 3/1 and one 33/1. As much as there is improvement to come from Punchestowns, the same holds true about Burton Port as far as I can see.

HENDERSON MULLING PUNCH PREP
By Keith Hamer, Press Association Sport
Punchestowns could have one more run ahead of Cheltenham in the Sodexho Prestige Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot on Saturday week.
Trainer Nicky Henderson is considering taking in this three-mile contest after the seven-year-old took his unbeaten record over fences to two at Sandown last Saturday.
"I think there's a lot of improvement to come out of him. He takes a lot of work and I haven't thrown out the idea of another run," the Seven Barrows handler told At The Races.
"It's probably unlikely but I might put him in the Reynoldstown next weekend."
Punchestowns is 3-1 favourite for the RSA Chase on day two of the Festival (March 17).
Burton Port is another of Henderson's possibles for that race and the Trevor Hemmings-owned gelding earned quotes of 20-1 with victory at Southwell on Monday.
"I was impressed with him at Southwell, it was a competitive little race on paper. He did well," Henderson went on.
"I wouldn't get too carried away about it. If the others have run to their form then it was a good performance giving them weight.
"He's the most admirable, not very big, but heart of gold horse. He will take anything going and jumps like a dream. He's done absolutely everything right.
"Jumping fences is bringing out a better horse in him and possibly we'll be thinking about the RSA. He's a lovely horse."
 
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Well, what in God's name is he doing running him over 2 miles then?

It makes no sense at all.

I would rather the Arkle personally due to financial reasons, even though I do have a sizeable bet on for the RSA.

Henderson is acting like a twat for most of this season.
 
How many contradictions can you spot in these quotes from Henderson?


LONG RUN faces just four rivals in the Grade 2 Totesport.com Kingmaker Novices' Chase over 2m at Warwick on Saturday, but trainer Nicky Henderson on Friday revealed the exciting novice is likely to step back up in trip for the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

The Robert Waley-Cohen-owned five-year-old was a hugely impressive winner of the Grade 1 Williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton in December, but featured towards the top of the betting for the Irish Independent Arkle Chase following speculation he would bypass the RSA.

However, Henderson said he favoured the RSA and was only running Long Run in the Kingmaker because it was an easier option at this stage of his career.
Speaking on At The Races, the trainer said: "Everyone thinks this is a trial for the Arkle, but it's 99 per cent certain he'll run in the RSA.
"This is just an easier prep race for him. These three mile races take a lot out of any horse, let alone a five-year-old. I'm trying to look after him."
The form of Long Run's Feltham win took a boost when the13-length runner-up Tazbar won at Doncaster last Saturday and Henderson think the drop in trip may help the son of Cadoudal's jumping on Saturday.
"If you look at what he did to Tazbar, the form is there - he annihilated them," Henderson added.
"It [the Kingmaker] will be interesting from a jumping point of view as I think he'll find it easier to jump at a brisker pace over two miles."
 
There aren't necessarily any contradictions.

He might jump better over 2 miles but (unsaid) might not be fast enough to beat the best in the Arkle. 3 mile races might take a lot out of a 5 year old so (unsaid) they don't want to run in too many or one so close to the Festival.
 
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First of all, I don't see the problem with his jumping some do.

The contradictions for me are if he can run in a 2 mile race (Graded) at the weekend and Henderson wants to look after him, why does he not run him in the Arkle?

I can't see how his jumping improves for going faster? People make the same assumption about Dunguib and how his will improve in the Supreme and I think it will get worse!
 
Willie Mullins took the view that racing over shorter distances before stepping Cooldine up to the RSA chase last season helped his jumping considerably. He got plenty of practice jumping at pace and then went he took on the main test of the RSA it stood him in great stead (particularly given the way that race was run).
 
Yes and that makes sense. Running him in a 3m Grade 1, then back to 2 miles a few weeks before Cheltenham, and then back up to 3m+ does not. Cooldine was built up in distance, and your points are valid - Long Run is being thrown around in distance, for what reason I have no idea. Why couldn't he run in the Scilly Isles? oh, wait...
 
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Funny really, the other day I said Paul Nicholls wouldn't know a Champion Hurdler if he fell over one, and now we have the whole other end of the spectrum with Henderson.

Long term the Arkle is so the way to go. If he was mine i'd sooner place in the shorter race a la Kicking King and Best Mate than win a slog out with Punchestowns and Diamond Harry.

In mitigation usually one of the races is weaker than the other, it's rare for them both to look rock hard.
 
I always used to think that trainers avoided the RSA as they felt it could bottom a horse so early in its career - obviously NH doesn't.
 
I can't see how his jumping improves for going faster? People make the same assumption about Dunguib and how his
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Talking about this today at Kempton. You hear this a lot but why? Surely its all down to technique and if its not quite right, then you are in more trouble at speed?

Mistakes always seem a lot more costly at cheltenham too. Obvious really given the way the races unfold, but its all part of the equation
 
clivex said:
Talking about this today at Kempton. You hear this a lot but why? Surely its all down to technique and if its not quite right, then you are in more trouble at speed?
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I think going faster helps concentrate the mind. Look at Tiday Bay, he jumped beautifully in his Arkle. And look at human hurdlers as well - they always look more fluent over the shorter distance.
 
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