Novice Chasers 2009/10

I could not understand why he went so wide of that bend when Captain Cee Bee just cut right through and took a comfortable lead without having to extend himself.
 
Sorry, gus, I see now you were talking about a different race, different horse. Apologies
 
chroniclandlord said:
A good performance from Punchestowns. He came back well after a bad mistake to beat a good horse fairly easily.
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Apart from Denman Punchestowns was the horse I was most excited about at the start of this season. Although he has done nothing to put me off that enthusiasm he does get a bit close to his fences at times and needs to fiddle to get out of trouble . It's great that he can do this, but he shouldn't have to do so quite so often. He's much better when standing off a fence.
 
davidjohnson said:
Foster's Cross did nothing wrong, but anyone that backed the horse to win is entitled to feel rather peeved with the ride. I am surprised that anyone thinks it is okay to make the running on a horse and allow a rival to go past you without making any effort to go with him.

The stewards saw nothing wrong with the ride so perhaps it's just me (and gus, Colin Phillips and Grasshopper)
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My reference to El Cid (Charlton Heston dead, tied on upright to a horse) means I think he didn't move in the slightest on the horse in the straight when challenged means i agree also..
 
Galileo said:
I could not understand why he went so wide of that bend when Captain Cee Bee just cut right through and took a comfortable lead without having to extend himself.
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There was a difference of opinion in the beginners chase too, with two coming up the stand side and two the far side.

On Captain Cee Bee, I heard one or two commenting that he won't get around at cheltenham but does anyone think that Walsh nearly made the same mistake as Leopardstown, pulling the head off him coming to the last? He nearly came down. I think with a horse beside him at the last in Cheltenham and with a push at the last, he'll take the lead and win well.
 
I've had a better look at the Arkle today and have narrowed it down to

Somersby
Long Run
Tataniano

Captain Cee Bee is much too short even though I think he has his chance.

Sizing Europe I will always be against for reasons outlined earlier in this thread - I really don't fancy him under pressure.

I think Osana went sour last year and can't have him, plus form lines out him comfortably behind the other 2 irish chances.

Somersby won the best novice chase of the season and jumped really well in the best test for a novice prior to Cheltenham, and seemed to have plenty of speed to get away up Sandown's hill.

Long Run I am a massive fan of and think right now his ideal trip is 2m4. There is a chance the Arkle could be too short but I think he has bags of pace and is something really special. The concern remains the jockey. Seeing as he's going for the Kingmaker this weekend I can't see that as anything but a prep for the Arkle providing he runs well.

Tataniano was a disappointing favourite lto, and I dismissed him too quickly. However, looking at the race & conditions again (not to mention Nicholls reaction), I think the bookies have overreacted to that race by effectively doubling his price - he still has the same chance to me as he did prior to Newbury.

Mad Max doesn't look good enough and there are doubts about Sports Line lining up & the suitability of the ground.
 
Of the three you named, Somersby is the only one I would consider. He looks to have very few holes in him.

Long Run is a monster but the further he went the better he looked at Kempton so he should be going to the SunAlliance Chase rather than avoiding his stablemate. Jumping will be under big pressure at 2 mile pace as well. Tataniano is still a crazy price - his form with Fosters Cross looks distinctly ordinary now.


Hamm said:
I've had a better look at the Arkle today and have narrowed it down to

Somersby
Long Run
Tataniano

Captain Cee Bee is much too short even though I think he has his chance.

Sizing Europe I will always be against for reasons outlined earlier in this thread - I really don't fancy him under pressure.

I think Osana went sour last year and can't have him, plus form lines out him comfortably behind the other 2 irish chances.

Somersby won the best novice chase of the season and jumped really well in the best test for a novice prior to Cheltenham, and seemed to have plenty of speed to get away up Sandown's hill.

Long Run I am a massive fan of and think right now his ideal trip is 2m4. There is a chance the Arkle could be too short but I think he has bags of pace and is something really special. The concern remains the jockey. Seeing as he's going for the Kingmaker this weekend I can't see that as anything but a prep for the Arkle providing he runs well.

Tataniano was a disappointing favourite lto, and I dismissed him too quickly. However, looking at the race & conditions again (not to mention Nicholls reaction), I think the bookies have overreacted to that race by effectively doubling his price - he still has the same chance to me as he did prior to Newbury.

Mad Max doesn't look good enough and there are doubts about Sports Line lining up & the suitability of the ground.
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I think Captain Cee Bee has better form than the english 2 milers, but Long run , Punchestowns and Diamond are well clear of Pandorama, Citizen and Weapons.
 
sunybay said:
I think Captain Cee Bee has better form than the english 2 milers, but Long run , Punchestowns and Diamond are well clear of Pandorama, Citizen and Weapons.
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I agree with most of that....with Captain Cee Bee I include Sizing Europe and Sportsline. I think Somersby is the only "obvious" British trained horse that will prevent one of them winning. It is about as strong (in terms of strength in depth) a bunch of two mile novice chasers that I have seen in Ireland.

The British staying novice chasers definitely have the edge.
 
Somersby is my idea of the Arkle winner ~ 7's actually looks a very fair price to me. As Hamm said, jumps well and looks to have a decent turn of foot as well.

The Henry VIII remains the strongest form on offer for the race imo (marginally ahead of the Leopardstown race); as for Captain Cee Bee, for all that I wouldn't be surprised if he won the race, to be half the price of Somersby is craziness.

I think Osana will reverse the Leopardstown form with Sizing Europe.
 
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Long Run will probably be better at longer distances but could be classy enough to prevail despite that. Somersby does look to be the pick of the British trained horses though.

However I think that Captain Cee Bee is the best of the Irish horses in what seems to be an exceptional year and looks the winner to me.
 
trackside528 said:
I think Osana will reverse the Leopardstown form with Sizing Europe.
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For all it has been expensive following Sizing Europe over hurdles, it has been equally just as expensive for those opposing him over fences.

I love the way this horse has been campaigned and missing the Irish Arkle was a great decision.
 
trackside528 said:
Somersby is my idea of the Arkle ~ 7's actually looks a very fair price to me. As Hamm said, jumps well and looks to have a decent turn of foot as well.

The Henry VIII remains the strongest form on offer for the race imo (marginally ahead of the Leopardstown race); for Captain Cee Bee, for all that I wouldn't be surprised if he won the race, to be half the price of Somersby is craziness.

I think Osana will reverse the Leopardstown form with Sizing Europe.
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You put my argument better than I did!
 
I can't understand why so many people have a downer on him. The price differential on Betfair between SE and CCB (8.2..5) is ridiculous.
 
He has yet to show he can and will pull it out at the business end since before Katchit's Champion Hurdle.
 
Euronymous said:
I can't understand why so many people have a downer on him. The price differential on Betfair between SE and CCB (8.2..5) is ridiculous.
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I can, it's called course form, and you can't beat it at the festival- CCB is a cast iron stayer up the hill.

It'll be between Somersby and CCB. I would favour the former, with doubts over CCB jumping, and bigger price too.:)
 
Mr.Jake said:
I can, it's called course form, and you can't beat it at the festival- CCB is a cast iron stayer up the hill.

It'll be between Somersby and CCB. I would favour the former, with doubts over CCB jumping, and bigger price too.:)
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Sizing Europe is thoroughly proven over the course too, being a Greatwood winner - a race in which he almost certainly showed better form than both Somersby and Captain Cee Bee did in their respective Supreme Novices.

The French horse will gub all three in the Arkle though.
 
3 lengths off Solwith/Punjabi on his last hurdles start and 4 straight successes including an easy defeat of Osana - more than enough to merit his position towards the top of the market. Not neccessarily one you have to back (no need to back every horse!) but certainly one that merits respect.

Like I said I liked the way DeBromhead realised the horse was probably not at his peak at Christmas - has freshened him up and should be at a peak for Cheltenham. He also has more experience of jumping than the likes of Somersby and Captain Cee Bee. Were it not for it being an exceptionally strong looking Arkle I would be very sweet on him indeed...

Both the Arkle and SunAlliance Chase look sure to throw up top class performers.
 
Galileo said:
3 lengths off Solwith/Punjabi on his last hurdles start
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Watch any any those races and tell me you aren't concerned with his finishing effort.

If you can then you should be lumping on at 7's. I'm certainly not dismissing him - he hasn't set a foot wrong over fences - but I still have my doubts.
 
I do not see how Osana is going to reverse form with him at Cheltenham.

On his last start over hurdles I think the horse was running over hurdles for the sake of it. He was having his first run (in May) since December and subsequently turned out 2 weeks later for his beginners chase. The run against Solwhit was clearly not a priority and it looked to me to have been connections simply getting him back on the track ahead of his chase campaign. In the circumstances I thought he ran a cracker against race hardened horses.

I have backed him for small money already but like I said, the race is that competitive I would not get too strongly involved as cases could be made for quite a few of them. I just like him alot and think he is much better than he showed at Leopardstown the last day - though that was still top form.

Long Run is interesting but he is a three miler in my book.
 
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