Novice Chasers 2009/10

LUKE said:
You must be the worst judge on the forum-an Irish trained horse will win the Arkle.
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Good to see you haven't changed in the last few weeks.

Have you once backed up a posted opinion with some substance, or do you just deride those who do?

I don't believe the Sizing Europe/Osana form to be worth as much as others - that doesn't make me a better or worse judge than anyone else. I do believe Captain Cee Bee much better than both. I wrote up a reasonable length post a page or two back on my thoughts on the Arkle - it would be interesting if you could manage to do something similar as opposed to your usual pithy remarks.
 
I leave the waffle to others- bitching about trainers isn't my style.The bets I have posted on this forum over the last 6 months are nicely in profit-it's all about results for me.
 
Who is going on about trainers?

Funnily enough, i thought the forum for discussion of opinions not i'm backing/laying horse x without any further detail - how is that interesting?
 
Keeping it on topic gents...

I remember at the time that Sizing Europe won at Christmas I did state that he won well without being at his best that day (as his trainer thought himself) - but still won very comfortably indeed at the line. Like I said - Shakervilz is a 140 plus rated horse over hurdles who has taken to chasing in some style - so I do not take yesterdays form as a knock at all - particularly when Sizing Europe has thumped the fast finishing Major Finnegan earlier in the season as well.
 
I will, no doubt, be forced to eat my words but: I am not convinced by SE. If he goes and runs the shoes of his opposition then so be it. I'm just not convinced he tolerates the pressure of the big races that Cheltenham brings. If he does win then hat off to Henry De Bromhead. One to watch, for me anyway.
 
The right the decision - I think both he and Punchestowns are in a different league to the rest with the possible exception of Mikael D if they managed to get him back.
 
rorydelargy said:
Especially the ones you mention the day after :D
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I wont leave that go unanswered.By my reckoning since the start of the year I have posted 11 bets on the forum.8 winning bets including a 10/1 winner and 3 losing bets.
I did engage in some aftertiming when Cousin Vinny was beaten for which I must apologize.
 
Galileo said:
The right the decision - I think both he and Punchestowns are in a different league to the rest with the possible exception of Mikael D if they managed to get him back.
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It's the wrong decision, imo.

The RSA Chase is a much tougher assignment than the Arkle due to the presence of Punchestowns, and LR is technically unproven over the trip too.
 
Even with SWC likely to be on board? I suppose you're getting a price with that factored in. If a top jock was up you'd probably be looking at closer to 7/2 or 3/1.
 
Anyone remember the last RSA hotpot to have a suspect jockey up? Painfull even thinking about it....
 
Spot on. I had to check the result, he was actually 4-1 - cracking price when you think about it but the 5-1 Long Run might end in a similar fate.
 
It's a big worry. He seems to be so out of sync with the horse.

Saying that, am i mistaken or are there relatively few fences in the latter stages of the RSA chase or am I confusing this with hurdles in the World Hurdle?
 
Grasshopper said:
It's the wrong decision, imo.

The RSA Chase is a much tougher assignment than the Arkle due to the presence of Punchestowns, and LR is technically unproven over the trip too.
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I'd agree with the first part, and thought the Arkle would suit him well. I think it is not the vintage Arkle people thought (think?) and i would have had him favourite if he turned up.
 
Captain Cee Bee, Sizing Europe, Somersby, Sportsline and Riverside Theatre are all possible future stars in my opinion while from the SunAlliance Chase - in the absence of Mikael D -has Punchestowns looking the only real top notcher for the future with the likes of Diamond Harry, Weird Al and Pandorama all likely to fall just below top class. Think the first two in the SunAlliance Chase are miles clear of the rest.
 
Hamm said:
What form do the latter two have to suggest that?
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They don't - but generally novice chasers with their level of experience do not. But their trainers clearly hold them in the highest regard and to me I have been impressed with everything they have had the chance to do so far while at the same time promising much much more to come.

For instance Sportsline and Riverside Theatre are a similar prices in the Arkle as the likes of Weapons Amnesty and Weird Al are in the RSA Chase - I know which pair I rate more highly now and as future top class prospects.
 
I know you like Sportsline but it is highly unlikely he will ever achieve a mark as high as even Diamond Harry, same for Riverside Theatre, and Diamond Harry will probably only be 4th favourite for the RSA if Mikael turns up.
 
If we're gonna argue the relative strengths of the fields i'd point out that a two mile animal with the profile of Weird Al would be a 20/1 shot for the Arkle. The RSA lacks the strength in depth that the shorter race has this year.
 
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