Novice Chasers 2010/11

Hamm said:
I actually think Finian's Rainbow will jump at least as well as everything else, funnily enough.

The worry I have is what he will find off the bridle. Any thoughts on that?
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You may be right. The discipline of the jumps actually helped Tidal Bay to concentrate in this when slaughtering his field. Finian's might be able to do something similar.

Off the bridle I'm not worried about him. I think he'll find what he needs to.
 
I think Euro's post just after Warwick summed Finian's Rainbow's run there and chances in the Arkle up best.

I have him backed by himself, and in each way doubles with J'y Vole and Master Minded, and am looking to cover myself a little, but can't decide with who (it won't be Ghizao or Dan Breen). A part of me is thinking of a decent bet on Medermit (at 7/2 or bigger) but Realt Dubh stands out as something we could all be ignoring - anyone have a strong opinion on him? I know there is the perception that the Irish novice chasers are below par (I have pushed this view myself) but wondering in what is a sub par Arkle, does he have as good a chance as anything (& hence is overpriced)?
 
Meade reckons he might improve for good ground Hamm. I'd worry that something will have him off the bridle early. However he is brave out. I reckon he could place
 
I agree. He'd be my bet if I hadn't gone for Finian's. He battles really well and should be up there at the end of the race. A good run would also bode well for Noble Prince in the Jewson who I intend backing on the day when I'll be in attendance.


SteveM said:
I thought Medermit's most recent performance was very pleasing. He could be the type to grind this out of them.
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Considering his jumping errors Captain Chris finished too close to him for me to be that impressed. CC is a horse I really like for next year but right now he doesn't jump consistently enough.
 
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Playing Devil's advocate ...

Did Captain Chris get that close to Medermit because it was over 2m4 and Medermit didn't stay as well?

I watched Medermit over 2m4 at Cheltenham over Xmas and came to the conclusion he is slow and lacks pace.

Plus, on a line through Hell's Bay, Finian's has a much better chance than Medermit.
 
Euronymous said:
Considering his jumping errors Captain Chris finished too close to him for me to be that impressed. CC is a horse I really like for next year but right now he doesn't jump consistently enough.
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I think Captain Chris was actually a bit flattered by his proximity Medermit. It looked to me that Medermit was alway holding him.

Having said that I've had a good bet on Captain Chris in the Jewson, so I clearly like something about both of them.
 
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granger said:
Meade reckons he might improve for good ground Hamm. I'd worry that something will have him off the bridle early. However he is brave out. I reckon he could place
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If you look at the Drinmore he traveled as well as Jessies Dream & Mikael D'Hagaunet into the straight then didn't get home, he looks like is crying out for a stiff 2miles.

The thing that impresses so much about RD is when the pace increased on both occasions at Leopardstown, Carberry gave him a squeeze and he responded. I don't think it wise to pick holes in the Irish form as I think Noble Prince is a fairly decent benchmark.
 
Euronymous said:
Exactly. Plus his hurdle rating isn't a negative like it is for Ghizao.
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I thought Hell's Bay looked a different animal at Cheltenham to the one beaten at Newbury.

Regarding Realt Dubh and Flat Out - I don't have a very strong view, but it's worth noting that Flat Out was trading at around 4/6 in running when he fell at Leopardstown.
 
A couple of bad errors put paid to Starluck's chance at Sandown. Seems they made the right decision in sidestepping the Arkle.
 
I thought AP was very brave going for a big one 2 out - Starluck evidently wasn't keen on the idea and that false step he took could have been very nasty .
 
Hopefully they'll give Aintree a miss and prepare the horse for the Royal Hunt Cup. Best way to ruin a horse is to attempt to make it do something it can't.
 
Not at any time during the race did it look like Starluck would win it. I'm with DJ in that I hope they give Aintree a swerve - the horse isn't experienced enough over fences. Running him in the Arkle would have been suicide.
 
Field of 10 for the Arkle

Captain Chris
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Ghizao
Giorgio Quercus
Medermit
Realt Dubh
Rock Noir
Stagecoach Pearl
West with the Wind

Medermit is 3/1 fav. Ghizao 4/1. Finian's Rainbow 9/2. Captain Chris and Realt Dubh are both 9/1. 16/1 bar those six.
 
Chit Chat. Dan Breen is almost a value 1/14 shot.

I haven't been convinced by Medermit at all, and have had a saver on Ghizao. Confident about Finian's now though, and think the quicker ground will suit him better than anyone else.
 
Have purposely not looked at the Arkle all season to have a fresh perspective on it. Medermit obviously a solid chance given his hurdling form but I think Ghizao has the best chase form and really ought to be favourite. Not convinced at all by the soft races that Finian's Rainbow has been contesting and think the strong pace likely will test his jumping to the max.
 
The last time I felt so excited about a horse at Cheltenham as I do about Finian's was Well Chief in the Queen Mum. I will never forget the devestation when he fell after 2 fences .. it was like I could see it but could not believe it and was stunned. Lets hope he isn't too fresh and is allowed to bowl along.
 
Hamm said:
The last time I felt so excited about a horse at Cheltenham as I do about Finian's was Well Chief in the Queen Mum. I will never forget the devestation when he fell after 2 fences .. it was like I could see it but could not believe it and was stunned. Lets hope he isn't too fresh and is allowed to bowl along.
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On one thing we agree...
 
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