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Novice Chasers 2010/11

Bar the Bull said:
20 to 1 on Betfair.

It looks like we could see a field of 10+ horses, if Betfair odds are anything to go by.
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I'm not sure how you are seeing that ... Betfair is telling me we will have

Medermit
Finian's Rainbow
Ghizao
Realt Dubh
Dan Breen

with possibles
Starluck
Captain Chris (though I thought he was confirmed as not running here?)

who else can you see from Betfair looks likely to run?
 
I’ve just spoken to Alan Fleming. Starluck will be entered at Sandown on Saturday (tomorrow week). AP is booked to school him next Wednesday and much will depend on that session. No decision has been made about the Arkle. He is leaning more toward Aintree... You heard it first on Talkinghorses.
 
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At the Waterford preview last night David Pipe suggested that the race could cut up and Dan Breen was an each way bet.
 
Hamm said:
Captain Chris (though I thought he was confirmed as not running here?)
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Captain Chris will almost certainly run in the Jewson Novice Chase... but if the Arkle does cut up who knows.
 
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Using a combination of Betfair odds and what trainers have been saying:

Captain Chris
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Ghizao
Medermit
Realt Dubh
Rock Noir
William's Wishes

with possibly
Starluck, Blazing Tempo and Bellvano and a few other outsiders.
 
SteveM said:
Indeed... it would be surprising if he doesn't. The info being put out by Walsh and Plunkett could be stale... they have probably gone on what Fleming was saying two or three days ago. The owner might be saying something different.
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Ted Walsh would know Fleming quite well as he worked for Walsh a few years back.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Using a combination of Betfair odds and what trainers have been saying:

Captain Chris
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Ghizao
Medermit
Realt Dubh
Rock Noir
William's Wishes

with possibly
Starluck, Blazing Tempo and Bellvano and a few other outsiders.
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I do hope to see Blazing Tempo run at the festival, possibly in the Centenary, she is a cracking mare and a very slick jumper. I wouldn't be too worried about her last run as it was a bog that day, beaten by another decent mare who relishes heavy ground.
 
In the RSA Chase I like Wayward Prince ew . I like his profile and the horse's attitude . TFR may be too good for him but I should be disappointed if he does not make the frame.
 
SteveM said:
Clearly not that well though John, as the info was incorrect. They are deciding on Wednesday when AP is set to school him.
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All very confusing, thanks for the clarification. But as BtB, RP says Fleming said he needs more experience.
 
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I'm sure he does, but that may not have stopped him winning had he taken his chance.
 
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There's still some 4's about on Finians for the Arkle - I know I've missed al the tasty stuff but cant have a bar of Merdemit and the rest look average - Gerraghty is bulling about FR I believe - will he be longer on the day...... discuss...
 
On The Bridle said:
There's still some 4's about on Finians for the Arkle - I know I've missed al the tasty stuff but cant have a bar of Merdemit and the rest look average - Gerraghty is bulling about FR I believe - will he be longer on the day...... discuss...
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Funnily enough I've already backed Finians (one of the first ante-post positions I took this year). But I've since persuaded myself that he won't beat Medermit at Cheltenham.
 
Meanwhile Sandown looks a decent opportunity for him:

paddypower.com Extra Places At Cheltenham Novices´ Chase (For the Burnt Oak And Special Cargo Cup) (CLASS 3)(5yo+) 9 runners 2m Good
Race Conditions: £7,000 guaranteed For 5yo+, which have not won more than two chases Weights 10st 12lb Penalties after April 24th, 2010, a winner of a Class 3 to 6 chase 6lb; of 2 chases, or of a Class 1 or 2 chase 10lb Allowances mares 7lb Entries 9 pay £ 35



1
2F-114 Harry Tricker 7 11-8 Gary Moore

2
11354 Rebel Du Maquis 6 11-8 Paul Nicholls

3
400-13 Mamlook 7 11-4 David Pipe

4
25-231 Starluck 6 11-4 Alan Fleming

5
1-4022 Flaming Gorge 6 10-12 Nick Williams

6
2/73-4 Gandalfe 6 10-12 Alan Fleming

7
8F4634 Hi Tide 7 10-12 J R Jenkins

8
518-22 Nafaath 5 10-12 Howard Johnson

9 P-1023 Spear Thistle 9 10-12 Charlie Mann

Source: Racing Post
 
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SteveM said:
Funnily enough I've already backed Finians (one of the first ante-post positions I took this year). But I've since persuaded myself that he won't beat Medermit at Cheltenham.
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Seems to me that Medermit is favourite for this based on his hurdle rating and his run in the Supreme a couple of years back. Ghizao, Finian's Rainbow and Realt Dubh all look better chasers imo.
 
Reading the Weekender's Cheltenham preview guide, I feel Realt Dubh is totally underestimated. Ben Hutton states "he only beat Noble Prince a head", "Flat Out could have beaten both of them if he not have unseated his rider two out when travelling best of all".

A couple of things about both statements, Realt Dubh idled when he hit the front in the Irish Arkle, he did so at the Xmas meeting at Leopardstown. In the Irish Arkle Noble Prince came along side and he dug in again and beat the Nolan horse albeit narrowly.

Second thing, Flat Out fell 2 out, which is along way from home at Leopardstown, yet the conclusion is that he could have won, he didn't and he traveled well in the Supreme and emptied as soon as he hit rising ground.

Mr Hutton could be totally correct in his assessment, however I don't think he is, I hope I am right!
 
Euronymous said:
Seems to me that Medermit is favourite for this based on his hurdle rating and his run in the Supreme a couple of years back. Ghizao, Finian's Rainbow and Realt Dubh all look better chasers imo.
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I thought Medermit's most recent performance was very pleasing. He could be the type to grind this out of them.

I'd agree there is much to like about Finian's Rainbow, but I'm not confident that his jumping will stand up under pressure at Cheltenham. Therefore I can't see him as a better chaser.

The other two you mention are pretty good, but I don't see them as quite up to scratch as Arkle winners. I could be wrong.
 
I actually think Finian's Rainbow will jump at least as well as everything else, funnily enough.

The worry I have is what he will find off the bridle. Any thoughts on that?
 

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