Novice Chasers 2010/11

I love how people hype the Mullins horses ... MdH looked awful at that pre-Cheltenham run around last season and you'd want to be on drugs to think he could win this in his first chase start. And, I remember plenty of positive bulletins on how well he jumped prior to that.
 
Hamm said:
I love how people hype the Mullins horses ... MdH looked awful at that pre-Cheltenham run around last season and you'd want to be on drugs to think he could win this in his first chase start. And, I remember plenty of positive bulletins on how well he jumped prior to that.
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The horse was never right last year - the reports were that he was exceptional at Punchestown recently. Mullins pitching him into this must be significant - would one run in a beginners chase make that much of a difference?
 
Reports?! What significance do they have? The reports were positive before that after race thing and he jumped awful.

If he had already won a graced chase he still shouldn't be anywhere near evens. Crazy price.

They rarely come back after a season off.
 
Hamm, MdH did not jump "awful" that day. Granted, he was a little hesitant at a couple, but no more than that.

I do, however, have some sympathy with the suggestion that Mikael is rank bad value at current prices. Whilst it's harsh to judge him on a sole chase start, he was comprehensively outpointed in a race which did not work out at all well, and he does not head back over fences with a French record which compares well with the likes of Long Run, for example.

Whilst I'm a rank amateur when it comes to equine physique, he's never really struck me as an "anything over hurdles a bonus" type, and I'd certainly want to see some evidence of steeple-chasing merit before I steamed-in at a short price in a hot-enough looking race.

I suspect you've called it right, but probably for the wrong reasons. :cool:
 
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Awful in relative terms GH - as in nowhere near a grade 1 winner.

That and the sheer hype are the reasons I think he's the worst even money shot I've seen in some time.

I agree he doesn't look a horse who will improve for going chasing.
 
Hamm said:
Awful in relative terms GH - as in nowhere near a grade 1 winner.

That and the sheer hype are the reasons I think he's the worst even money shot I've seen in some time.

I agree he doesn't look a horse who will improve for going chasing.
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Relative to what though, Hamm?

It was a racecourse gallop, he was returning from a set-back, and he was seeing a fence on a racecourse for the first time in a long while. It's not like Walsh was going to boot his hole and throw him at the open-ditch, is it?

Hype is also the wrong word in this context, imo. For all that Mikael has it to prove over fences, 99% of novice chasers are in the same boat, yet we don't necessarily scream "Hype!" if one of Nicholls debutante's starts odds-on in a Graded chase.

Mikael has sufficiently good hurdling form to command maximum respect in a novice chase - even at G1 level. Mullins improved him massively on his French form; something the trainer has a bullet-proof record of doing with his French imports, and if he can repeat his best hurdling form over fences, he will probably win head-in-chest.

Best not to confuse a bad price with hype, I feel.
 
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We have very different views on novice chasing - a hurdle record is a guide, not a guarantee for a novice chaser and his prospects.

He jumped awful relative to what a grade 1 novice chaser should be capable of - other novices seemed much much better that day.

Hype is factoring in reports into a price (when we have evidence of his jumping to the contrary which came after similar reports) and getting carried away with the horse's prospects to the extent people are and have been talking about him as a future gold cup winner and he hadn't even won a chase! If that is not hype for you, I don't know what is..
 
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Hamm said:
We have very different views on novice chasing - a hurdle record is a guide, not a guarantee for a novice chaser and his prospects.

He jumped awful relative to what a grade 1 novice chaser should be capable of - other novices seemed much much better that day.

Hype is factoring in reports into a price (when we have evidence of his jumping to the contrary which came after similar reports) and getting carried away with the horse's prospects to the extent people are and have been talking about him as a future gold cup winner and he hadn't even won a chase! If that is not hype for you, I don't know what is..
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So you're suggesting that what you see in a racecourse gallop/school is more or less what you should see in the heat of battle in a G1 novice chase? And that we can judge them equally? You can't and shouldn't, imo.

Hype is directly related to a self-evident lack of reason or justification. As I've already said, there are several reasons why people might feel justified in giving MdH the benefit of the doubt. The type of people who are prepared to consider a racecourse gallop/school to be insufficient evidence of a poor jumper, for example. IMO, there isn't sufficient justification to make him a 5/4 chance, but that begs the question "What price do you make him without the hype?".

I'm not sure how I would want to price him up, and he is probably one to get after a touch......but would I want to lay more than 5/2? I'm not sure.

What price do you think he should be?
 
GH,
When exactly did I suggest that? All I said was he looked awful to me relative to what a grade 1 chaser would look like - sports line impressed for example.

He has never even run in a chase in Ireland so can can anyone have any 'evidence' for making him a bet in a hot looking grade 1 chase?

But hey, maybe listening to the trainer is the way to go?

5/2 still short. Noble prince should be a better
Horse come season end in my opinion. As for laying him at a price, I don't know - all I know is I wouldn't back him at any price he is likely to be.
 
Regarding what price MDH should be -connections have no reason to hammer into him -if he wins or runs well the dream is still alive.I would say his starting price will be closer to 5/2.
 
The ground will surely be very testing at Fairyhouse. I've heard they're considering moving Saturday's card to Monday to keep it 'fresh' for Sunday's big card.
 
Hamm said:
GH,
When exactly did I suggest that? All I said was he looked awful to me relative to what a grade 1 chaser would look like - sports line impressed for example.
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Sports Line had had two runs over fences, wasn't coming back from a setback, and is a headstrong type who takes a cut. To compare the two in any way based on that race-course gallop is a folly, imo

He has never even run in a chase in Ireland so can can anyone have any 'evidence' for making him a bet in a hot looking grade 1 chase?
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High-class hurdlers going novice chasing, and starting at short odds are routine, and are routinely backed (look no further than Celestial Halo for an example). Is your assertion that such types should never be backed, or that this particular type should never be backed? Either way, with no real argument against him other than your distaste for the way he went in a race-course gallop (during which he was never going to be asked any kind of questions) your ranting smacks of some personal grudge against the horse, rather than a rationale assessment. Maybe that isn't the case, but that's the way it comes across.

But hey, maybe listening to the trainer is the way to go?
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Yes. I listened to the trainer and that's how I came to my position on this matter. It's so much easier to have someone tell me my opinion - it takes the thinking out of things.

5/2 still short. Noble prince should be a better
Horse come season end in my opinion. As for laying him at a price, I don't know - all I know is I wouldn't back him at any price he is likely to be.
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Good for you. ;)
 
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Of the prices quoted above - Noble Prince would look to be the one for me - connections admitted to messing him up last year running him too quickly (in fairness they hinted at as much before he ran that race) but he was sublime fto over fences this year. They really think a lot of Jessies Dream but for me the Galway race hasn't worked out too well and am not the biggest fan of connections in grade 1 races. Realt Dubh strikes me as an out and out stayer and simply won't have the class or gears for this and Mikael D'Haguenet has always been a bit of a talking horse. He will have to be a seriously good beast to win this first time up should the rest stand up and run their respective races and just maybe he is but I wait to be convinced!!
 
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Grasshopper said:
High-class hurdlers going novice chasing, and starting at short odds are routine, and are routinely backed (look no further than Celestial Halo for an example). Is your assertion that such types should never be backed, or that this particular type should never be backed? Either way, with no real argument against him other than your distaste for the way he went in a race-course gallop (during which he was never going to be asked any kind of questions) your ranting smacks of some personal grudge against the horse, rather than a rationale assessment. Maybe that isn't the case, but that's the way it comes across.
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Again, please stop putting words in my mouth to try to continue this debate and make yourself sound faintly credible.

A personal grudge against a horse - good one.

I never said hurdlers should never be backed going chasing, but said this one shouldn't in a Grade 1 at 5/4.

You are making yourself look more than a little silly.
 
Finian's Rainbow vs. Sang Bleu and Hell's Bay today and also Tell Massini vs. Aiteen Thirtythree and Be There In Five.

Both look interesting races though think Finian's Rainbow is underpriced on what he's done so far and will be taking him on with the ex-French horse who I know they rate exceptionally highly at home.

Tell Massini looks the best in the other novices race with Aiteen Thirtythree striking me as a real 3 1/2m+ stayer the last day (he took a step up to 3m 2f for him to win over hurdles) and it's hard to see why the latter is shorter in places than Be There In Five who beat him comfortably over hurdles at this course late last season.

Exciting day all in all - good luck to anyone playing

Martin
 
Irish Stamp said:
Finian's Rainbow vs. Sang Bleu and Hell's Bay today and also Tell Massini vs. Aiteen Thirtythree and Be There In Five.

Both look interesting races though think Finian's Rainbow is underpriced on what he's done so far and will be taking him on with the ex-French horse who I know they rate exceptionally highly at home.

Tell Massini looks the best in the other novices race with Aiteen Thirtythree striking me as a real 3 1/2m+ stayer the last day (he took a step up to 3m 2f for him to win over hurdles) and it's hard to see why the latter is shorter in places than Be There In Five who beat him comfortably over hurdles at this course late last season.

Exciting day all in all - good luck to anyone playing

Martin
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Aiteen Thirtythree looks a real boat to me. Should jump a fence but will be running in races like the Sussex National soon enough.
 
Agree Rory.

Was it you who was a big fan of Tell Massini last year? How do you see this season going for him?
 
Hamm said:
Again, please stop putting words in my mouth to try to continue this debate and make yourself sound faintly credible.

A personal grudge against a horse - good one.

I never said hurdlers should never be backed going chasing, but said this one shouldn't in a Grade 1 at 5/4.

You are making yourself look more than a little silly.
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Am I really, Hamm? I leave it to others to decide whether I'm credible, silly or any other adjective you would like to append.

I'll give you one word of advice though. Go back through your posts on MdH on this thread and do an exclamation-mark count. This tends to suggest you are nothing but a shreiking ninny when it comes to this horse. Naturally, I would have kept my own counsel on this, if you hadn't started to lob the insults around.
 
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