Novice Chasers 2011-12

Hamm said:
I'm not dodging anything. You can't win a Supreme against horses like Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre and not have toe, it's just not possible.
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If this is the case and it's not "possible" to win the Supreme against horses like Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre without having "toe", how can you justify classing Peddlers Cross as vulnerable, when he has run to a level of form that would have seen all three of these Supreme runners practically tailed-off in the Champion Hurdle?

Let me put it another way. It is not "possible" to run a horse of Hurricane Fly's undoubted class and ability to under 2L in a Champion Hurdle, without having significantly more "toe" than any of the three Supreme runners you mention.
 
Grasshopper said:
If this is the case and it's not "possible" to win the Supreme against horses like Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre without having "toe", how can you justify classing Peddlers Cross as vulnerable, when he has run to a level of form that would have seen all three of these Supreme runners practically tailed-off in the Champion Hurdle?

Let me put it another way. It is not "possible" to run a horse of Hurricane Fly's undoubted class and ability to under 2L in a Champion Hurdle, without having significantly more "toe" than any of the three Supreme runners you mention.
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I feel like I'm going mad! Because Al Ferof has shown over fences that he is top class, Peddlers Cross has not. Al Ferof has won at arguably the two most demanding jumping tracks, Peddlers Cross has not. Al Ferof has beaten better horses than Peddlers Cross. Al Ferof has shown in a fast 2 miler race he is comfortable jumping at speed, Peddlers Cross has not.

I am not saying Peddlers Cross cannot do these things, but to date, he has not, and in my opinion, a horse piddling around gaff tracks as he is will find the Arkle like a 6f sprint and will be taken out of his comfort zone as he has not been tested to date. Even if he isn't taken off his feet in the Arkle, for me, the prices of both are massively the wrong way round (don't take this as backtracking, I'm trying to be reasonably onjective).
 
Cantoris said:
Lets get it straight. I understand what you are saying, but the rest of it is far more than semantics.

So, if a chaser has not shown that he can jump at speed (ie he has never had to jump at speed), you assume the worst? That's illogical.

You have not been able to confirm whether you think the race against Minella Class was run at a decent pace and if it was, where is your evidence that Peddlers jumped badly. I didn't see the race but you are saying he has not jumped at pace, yet the RP said it was run at a surprisingly fast pace given MC was having his first run over fences. Stop dodging the questions.
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I don't understand your question. I don't assume the worst, it is an opinion, but the prices for Peddlers Cross have assumed the absolute best - in my opinion, you need to be out of your mind to be backing him for the Arkle at present odds.

I'm not dodging any questions and can't be more explicit. It didn't look a hugely fast run race to me, and I thought Peddlers jumped well, as I do many novices, but nothing better. Al Ferof on the other hand jumped like a stag I thought.
 
Hamm said:
Because Al Ferof has shown over fences that he is top class, Peddlers Cross has not. Al Ferof has won at arguably the two most demanding jumping tracks, Peddlers Cross has not. Al Ferof has beaten better horses than Peddlers Cross. Al Ferof has shown in a fast 2 miler race he is comfortable jumping at speed, Peddlers Cross has not.
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So if I follow your logic, you could never really back a second season novice for the champion hurdle until they have shown top class form against very good horses at a top track in a fast run race where he jumped well at speed?

On Peddlers last race, the commentary in RP is "Chased leader until led 2nd, pressed from 7th until urged ahead 2 out, soon in command and drew clear from last, easily ". That wouldn't suggest it was a slow run race.
 
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Cantoris said:
So if I follow your logic, you could never really back a second season novice for the champion hurdle until they have shown top class form against very good horses at a top track in a fast run race where he jumped well at speed?
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I am not talking about the Champion Hurdle here - lets not complicate things as some people have difficulty in understanding that hurdle form does not replicate itself in the chasing arena. As regards Arkle horses, not when it is a max price of 4/1, no, I couldn't. I find it pretty good logic.
 
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Cantoris said:
On Peddlers last race, the commentary in RP is "Chased leader until led 2nd, pressed from 7th until urged ahead 2 out, soon in command and drew clear from last, easily ". That wouldn't suggest it was a slow run race.
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Nowhere in that race description is there an indicator of pace. I have made my point, and whilst I welcome debate, debate for debate's sake is of no interest to me.
 
Hamm said:
Nowhere in that race description is there an indicator of pace. I have made my point, and whilst I welcome debate, debate for debate's sake is of no interest to me.
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:lol::lol:
Peddlers price is miserable at 4/1 - Al Ferof's is only slightly better. Your original fancy for this may be the best alternative if we knew the plan for him.
 
Hamm said:
Nowhere in that race description is there an indicator of pace. I have made my point, and whilst I welcome debate, debate for debate's sake is of no interest to me.
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So neither I can say it was a fast pace, nor you can say it was a slow pace. But you seem pretty sure that Peddlers Cross has not jumped at a fast pace. I have not said it was a fast pace. I've simply asked you for your evidence that it was a slow race and you haven't come up with any. It's up to you to support your own position here, so where's your evidence? You have dodged the pace issue on the MC/PC race for the last three pages. It's a simple question, show us the lack of pace. Prove it. If you cannot, then your position has no supportable evidence. Which is more than semantics.
 
Cantoris said:
So neither I can say it was a fast pace, nor you can say it was a slow pace. But you seem pretty sure that Peddlers Cross has not jumped at a fast pace. I have not said it was a fast pace. I've simply asked you for your evidence that it was a slow race and you haven't come up with any. It's up to you to support your own position here, so where's your evidence? You have dodged the pace issue on the MC/PC race for the last three pages. It's a simple question, show us the lack of pace. Prove it. If you cannot, then your position has no supportable evidence. Which is more than semantics.
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YOU posted evidence using race comments. Here's what you can do now - watch the race, and until you watch it, stop commenting on it, as you are making yourself look foolish. I made my point, and have no interest in debating with you on something you haven't even watched. End of.
 
Hamm said:
YOU posted evidence using race comments. Here's what you can do now - watch the race, and until you watch it, stop commenting on it, as you are making yourself look foolish. I made my point, and have no interest in debating with you on something you haven't even watched. End of.
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Hold on there big man, i told you I hadn't seen the race and all I was using was the race comments which doesn't indicate it was a slow race. If a horse is pressed it would suggest they may be going at it a bit but I'm not arguing anything here. You're the one who made the bold statement that Peddlers has not jumped at speed yet. So why don't YOU show us your evidence? Is it because you don't have any? Just man up then and say you don't have any evidence but just have a gut feeling that he won't jump well on the day. Absent the evidence, you're suggestion is illogical.
 
Cantoris said:
Hold on there big man, i told you I hadn't seen the race and all I was using was the race comments which doesn't indicate it was a slow race. If a horse is pressed it would suggest they may be going at it a bit but I'm not arguing anything here. You're the one who made the bold statement that Peddlers has not jumped at speed yet. So why don't YOU show us your evidence? Is it because you don't have any? Just man up then and say you don't have any evidence but just have a gut feeling that he won't jump well on the day. Absent the evidence, you're suggestion is illogical.
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12:10 - Malise Nicolson Bright Future Novices' Chase

2m1½f, Class 3, £7,147.80
1 Peddlers Cross 2/13F
2 Minella Class 9/2
3 Character Actor 100/1

5 ran Distances: 8l, 68l, 14l
TIME 4m 20.00s (slow by 12.00s)
Jockey: Jason Maguire
Trainer: Donald McCain
WIN £1.10 PL £1.02, £1.40
Ex £1.30
CSF £1.44


On good to soft ground, would you really expect a time to be 12 seconds outside standard, at a gaff track like Bangor? I would expect the best 2 miler to trash the record, not fall well outside it.
 
Hamm said:
On good to soft ground, would you really expect a time to be 12 seconds outside standard, at a gaff track like Bangor? I would expect the best 2 miler to trash the record, not fall well outside it.
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Is that it? Even you know that certain conditions need to happen for a course record to fall. It is not solely linked to ability. Having the best horse in the world run at a track does not mean it will lower the course record. You know that already, I don't need to tell you. Which is the really disappointing bit of your comment.
 
To Quote from Nick Mordin

"Last Week Peddlers Cross battled with grade 1 winning hurdler Minella Class for a long way in a race run at a remarkably strong pace for a novice chase. He was still being ridden along jumping the last and clocked a time that would have broken the course record had the ground not been on the soft side of yielding. PC jumped very well, looking like a horse that had been running over fences for years. This run proves that PC is a remarkable talent, but it also shows once more that he has a bad habit of running too fast for his own good."
 
Hamm said:
I feel like I'm going mad! Because Al Ferof has shown over fences that he is top class, Peddlers Cross has not. Al Ferof has won at arguably the two most demanding jumping tracks, Peddlers Cross has not. Al Ferof has beaten better horses than Peddlers Cross. Al Ferof has shown in a fast 2 miler race he is comfortable jumping at speed, Peddlers Cross has not.
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Maybe you are mad, Hamm?

In what way has Al Ferof shown he is "top class" over fences? In two starts he has beaten Astaracad and For Non Stop who have one novice chase win between them (and that a rag summer event at Perth) in five combined chase starts.

If you think these outings represent "top-class" efforts, and that they provide the kind of 'conclusive analysis' you're so fond of, then I fear you may be as thoroughy mistaken as you were the last time you went out on such a limb.

Al Ferof has won two poorly-contested Graded novice chases at two Graded tracks. Both events provided no more an examination (in real terms) than Peddlers Cross faced in his most recent start at Bangor. Indeed, one might say Peddlars 8L defeat of the 144-rated hurdler Minella Class (recvd 10lbs) was somewhat more impressive than AF's level-weights Neck win over the 140-rated hurdler For Non Stop. What none of these outings show, is that Al Ferof is proven top-class and Peddlers Cross is not.
 
The RP analysis of Al Ferof's race on Saturday says the time for the race "looked very respectable" when compared with the Tingle Creek. The Topspeed figure hasn't been posted yet.

Peddlers Cross got a time figure of 134 for his run at Bangor which is also highly respectable.
 
Grasshopper said:
Maybe you are mad, Hamm?

In what way has Al Ferof shown he is "top class" over fences? In two starts he has beaten Astaracad and For Non Stop who have one novice chase win between them (and that a rag summer event at Perth) in five combined chase starts.

If you think these outings represent "top-class" efforts, and that they provide the kind of 'conclusive analysis' you're so fond of, then I fear you may be as thoroughy mistaken as you were the last time you went out on such a limb.

Al Ferof has won two poorly-contested Graded novice chases at two Graded tracks. Both events provided no more an examination (in real terms) than Peddlers Cross faced in his most recent start at Bangor. Indeed, one might say Peddlars 8L defeat of the 144-rated hurdler Minella Class (recvd 10lbs) was somewhat more impressive than AF's level-weights Neck win over the 140-rated hurdler For Non Stop. What none of these outings show, is that Al Ferof is proven top-class and Peddlers Cross is not.
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I am of course mad, but in a different way :p

Where did I say conclusive evidence?

Minella Class is not a Grade 1 winning standard hurdler, for all he did win one - I think we both know that.

I am out on a limb for one reason only here - the price of Peddlers Cross versus the races he has had to date and the races he will probably have make him for me the worst priced horse in Cheltenham antepost markets. I will happily say well done to anyone should I be wrong, but isn't this all about taking opinions, and at the very least I have offered many reasons for mine here.
 
On The Bridle said:
To Quote from Nick Mordin

"Last Week Peddlers Cross battled with grade 1 winning hurdler Minella Class for a long way in a race run at a remarkably strong pace for a novice chase. He was still being ridden along jumping the last and clocked a time that would have broken the course record had the ground not been on the soft side of yielding. PC jumped very well, looking like a horse that had been running over fences for years. This run proves that PC is a remarkable talent, but it also shows once more that he has a bad habit of running too fast for his own good."
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One enormous problem with your point here - do you want me to tell you what it is? :D
 
Grey said:
The RP analysis of Al Ferof's race on Saturday says the time for the race "looked very respectable" when compared with the Tingle Creek. The Topspeed figure hasn't been posted yet.

Peddlers Cross got a time figure of 134 for his run at Bangor which is also highly respectable.
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Quite... it would be unreasonable to expect more from either at this stage.
 
So Hamm what you are really saying is that PC is too short in the market?? If you had said that at the start we could have all agreed you were correct. :lol:
 
I think 7/2 Peddlers Cross is fair enough, to be honest.

A certain amount of progression is probably factored into his price, I'd concede, but he has not put a foot wrong over fences, and of all the hurdlers going chasing, he is the most obvious one for the bookies to want to duck.

Some people are, imo, too quick to dismiss Peddlers' hurdle form as irrelevant when it comes to novice chases. Whilst that may be true to an extent, it's fair to say that most novice chasers near the top end of the scale probably run to within +/- 5lbs of their hurdles rating, when sent over fences. Even if Peddlers Cross is anchored near the bottom-end of that scale, he'd still be the one to beat for me.

I'm a believer when it comes to Peddlers Cross, and I've no emotional tie to him, having under-rated him almost all the way through his career. Quibbles about the tracks and opposition aside, in every other aspect of his character, he looks a tremendous Arkle prospect, and I personally think he is as good a thing as you are likely to get in a race like this.

I'm on at 6/1 (evidence that I still missed the boat a bit on him), and therefore have no interest at 7/2. But I do reckon we could see him going off shorter on the day. For me, he remains thoroughly unexposed over fences, and has already run to a level of form that would entitle him to take his chance in the Arkle. A win at Haydock would see his price contract further, and if he went into the Arkle undefeated, I think he would be a steamer on the day; him being a very obvious choice as a shortie, given his potential for further progression and track record.

There's a few if's in my theory :whistle: but I can honestly see him starting a 2/1 shot on the day, and all he needs to do is win at Haydock to make it so. And even if he's turned over, I can't see him drifting out to anything bigger than 5/1........and I'd still expect to see him backed to near favouritism from there. I actually think 7/2 is a traders price, and wouldn't really discourage anyone if they wanted to take a piece of it.
 
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...he travels like the wrath of God and is a very sound jumper. Although the Arkle looks particularly strong this time I'm very happy with my position at 5/1. I was originally on Sprinter Sacre, but have seen enough to switch funds into Peddler's at this stage.
 
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