Novice Chasers 2011-12

No concerns, he's very good, just I think he is overestimated because of his form with Big Bucks, the horse who (and I know most people will disagree but each to their own) can't step down even half a mile as I would think he'd be found out. On Grand Crus, his first race was very messy and his main danger exited some way out, and he was not impressive lto. I think he may well be very good, but very good like the other top novices, not necessarily clearly better as everyone is assuming (or so the prices indicate).
 
I 100% agree with Hamm there as regards the possible over estimation of Grand Crus - I couldnt have him at those prices against Bobs Worth. I wouldn't waste my money saving with Silvinaco though.

Peddlers is a brutal price at 11/10 in the Wayward Lad. Even I would find it difficult to back him at those prices.

Knight Pass (on another thread) is a lock EW at 9/2.
 
Rangitoto runs at Wincanton on Monday - very impressed with him at Cheltenham last time - looks a proper chaser.
 
I think Time For Rupert was hugely overrated for being 2nd best to Big Buck's and I can see where you're coming from Hamm to say the same about Grands Crus. For me he has looked a good bit better than TFR but only time will tell.

The one I'm keen on in the race is Silviniaco Conti. I think this track and trip will suit him perfectly and he was most impressive last time. His jumping has been exceptional on both starts and the defeat the first day can be forgiven because he wasn't fit and the race wasn't run to suit.

Nicholls thinks this is a King George/Gold Cup horse for next season so I'd expect him to go close.

I can never get excited about Bobs Worth for all that he keeps winning. Cue Card should have beat him at Newbury, and giving him 7lbs, and for all that he will definitely improve for the step up in trip he just strikes me as lacking in pace and scope. His jumping was too sketchy for me to be backing him in this.

I can see Ruby finding a lovely rhythm with SC and the others not catching him.
 
As far as Grand Crus goes I would imagine he'll be way too quick for Bob's Worth round here. Should be quite a race to watch but I find the Wayward Lad a much more interesteing race.

Quite shocked that both trainers have thrown caution to the wind and allowed two very inexperienced chasers to clash this early in their careers. The result could make the Arkle look very lobsided should one beat the other decisevly.

I'm very much in the Sprinter Sacre camp especially round here.

My problem with Peddler's Cross is I'm not convinced he's fast enough to cope with Sprinter Sacre.

His high reputation as a horse with bags of speed is based round finishing 2nd to Hurricane Fly but he was beaten very easily by the Irish Champion. The 3rd horse Oscar Whisky really isn't a 2 miler and although he looks the part the fact is he was Nicky Hendersons 3rd string and on form round about the same class as Donald McCain's 2nd string back then in Overturn.

I'm not convinced his 2nd in the Champion Hurdle is all it is cracked up to be. Had Binocular been fit and well been in the race and kicked from the top of the hill like he did the previous year, while Hurricane Fly would have probably still have beat him Ruby wouldn't have been taking any pulls and would have to have set Hurricane Fly alight a lot sooner. I'm not so sure there would be the same confidence behind Peddler's Cross if he had then finished a well beaten 3rd.

Sprinter Sacre was a big backward novice while Peddler's Croos was strutting his stuff in the Champion Hurdle but what was outstanding about him was the way he travelled in the superme. Hack cantering between 3 out and 2 out he had eventual winner Al Ferof flat to the boards as was his stable companion Spirit Son, in fact they all were bar him.

The reason Barry chose to ride Spirit Son wasn't because he thought he was a better horse it was because he was more mature and unlike Sprinter Sacre had filled his frame out and was more ready for such a tough test.

As weak and as unfurbished as he was Sprinter Sacre still ran a cracker until coming to the hill, when it became apparent Barry's decison was the right one on the day.

That was along time ago and the Sprinter Sacre, Peddler's Cross is due to meet on Tuesday, is a totally differnt ball game who has strengthened up no end and won't be stopping like he did at Cheltenham.

I doubt if there's a novice chaser around with a higher cruising speed than Sprinter Sacre and there's defintely not a better jumper. I really belive Peddler's Cross is up against it.

Sprinter Sacre isn't short of toe either as he showed in his early races albeit against lesser opposition but the way he's developed and matured there's nothing to say he can't show that same turn of foot against better horses like Peddler's Cross.

Having a turn of foot doesn't usually come into play until very late on and the better a horse travels the more lekiely he is to have the energy to use it. So having the speed to finsih 2nd in the Champion Hurdle doesn't mean you'll have the spped to beat a top class chaser. If he jumps better and travels better than you all advatage you had, if any, is gone

I can't see Sprinter Sacre being beat but if Peddler's Cross does beat him I'll take my hat of to him because he's going to have to be real special to beat this horse.
 
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It bears repeating that Bobsworth has good hurdling form at two miles (served the now-143-rated Sire De Grugy his ass over the minimum trip last season) and he would almost certainly have gone close in the Neptune at the Festival, if he'd been allowed to take his chance there, rather than the Spa Hurdle.

He is by no means an old boat, and I can't have it that he will be done for "pace" by anything in the Feltham. :cool:
 
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Barry Geharty seems very confident Bobsworth will beat Grand Crus and mega confident Sprinter Sacre will serve PC his ass on a plate tomorrow.

My worry is Bobsworth wasn't that highly thought of at first but kept suprising them which makes me a bit uncomfortable about how good he actually is.

However Barry has said he's absolutely spot on for this and couldn't be any fitter whereas IMO David Pipe will be gearing more toward Cheltenham and may have left a little bit more to work on.

Very interesting race whatever the outcome.
 
I would like to point out that Pipe had a couple of paper favourites beaten earlier on today .Probably a couple of dogs but in my experience the stable can be slightly hit and miss-even though I respect them in a big way.
If I had a lumpy bet on GC -I would be starting to sweat.
 
Bit worried about the drift on BW but I think the hype surrounding Grands Crus and Pricewise selecting SC are the reasons rather than any worry about his welfare.
 
I'd oppose him again at Cheltenham because he's gonna be too short whatever he runs in at the Festival. I'm not totally convinced about his jumping but he has a magnificent engine. Bob's Worth was very novicey.
 
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