Novice Chasers 2011-12

LUKE said:
Will do it on the morning of the race.The guaranteed prices are the icing on the cake.If I remember correctly Menorah was a bit of a drifter 2 years ago-made a nice difference.
Anyway I am sitting here dreaming of easy money when I should be doing a payroll.
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Looking at the prices at the moment (huge over-round) I cannot see that much easy money to be made for what will have to be a large chunk of cash up-front even with the most mathematically perfect staking plan. Lump it all on Sprinter - he's gone bye!!!:whistle:
 
It would be silly not to take advantage of this, particularly for those already on SS. I'm unclear about some of the conditions/restrictions, but if it operates as it did in the Supreme in previous years it should be taken.
 
On The Bridle said:
Looking at the prices at the moment (huge over-round) I cannot see that much easy money to be made for what will have to be a large chunk of cash up-front even with the most mathematically perfect staking plan. Lump it all on Sprinter - he's gone bye!!!:whistle:
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That is why I think you can't really back them all.

For me, I would back Sprinter Sacre and cover with the next 2 in the betting with Paddy Power.
 
Hamm said:
That is why I think you can't really back them all.

For me, I would back Sprinter Sacre and cover with the next 2 in the betting with Paddy Power.
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Seems more realistic - Peddlers is as low as 5/2 which really eats into any SS profits, the only other one you could consider saving on would be Al Ferof at 5's. Cue Card or Menorah can't win can they??
 
Menorah is just not that good. I am pretty sure Cue Card won't win as well.

I think Peddlers will drift from that price, but Al Ferof would be my main cover bet.

To be honest, I think Sprinter Sacre is an absolute lock, and I would probably back him heavily at 4/6. I don't think another horse can beat him in the Arkle, only himself. It's rare a horse so short at Cheltenham is worth a heavy punt, but I think he is and more. I would much, MUCH rather be on Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 than Hurricane Fly at odds on.
 
I'm with you but I worry about his exuberance. I remember Well Chief coming down early doors in the 07 Queen Mother - did he over jump one? Going balls deep in one at the Festival is so different than having yer nuts on one at Newmarket or Longchamp.
 
Euronymous said:
I'm with you but I worry about his exuberance. I remember Well Chief coming down early doors in the 07 Queen Mother - did he over jump one? Going balls deep in one at the Festival is so different than having yer nuts on one at Newmarket or Longchamp.
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That was the biggest bet of my life, and my Dad, who was alongside me at the time, still thinks it funny to tell the story of how I went into shock. I at least recovered a minute later to back Voy por Ustedes at 2.78 but it was a black day.
 
On The Bridle said:
Cue Card or Menorah can't win can they??
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No they can't win as SS is running but Cue Card and Menorah shade it above PC and AF as best of the rest. Cue Card is underrated and Menorah is the type that things could suddenly go right for, he is the Tidal Bay of the field.
 
The offer must be taken and like Luke, I worked it last year so I had a guaranteed no loss whatever the result, plus a nice profit if either Al Ferof, Spirit Son or Zaidpour won.

This year I will wait for the final declarations, cover all realistic chances (however small) and lump any potential profit on Peddlers Cross. I think Sprinter Sacre will be very hard to beat (quite obviously) but think Peddlers Cross is the only one that can do it. If he's back to his best then i think he must have a big chance.
 
Euronymous said:
I'm with you but I worry about his exuberance.
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When people think about horses they come up with buzz words such as exuberance. I wouldn’t disagree that SS is brimming with energy but at the same time there is nothing reckless or out of control about it. It simply represents that he is operating on another level compared to those in his division. They will have to tie his legs together and throw him down a hole to hinder him and I still wouldn't be ruling him out.
 
Zenyatta said:
Peddlers Cross is the only one that can do it. If he's back to his best then i think he must have a big chance.
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Thing is his best won't be good enough (and I'm far from convinced he's second best anyway). They will all have to run better than their best to win a novice Championship. Most of them haven't the scope to be a lot better than they already are, but with the favourite we have seen just the tip of the iceberg, he has been winning with his head in his chest and breaking course records barely out of second gear.
 
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PP terms:

Max refund: EUR100/£100 per customer.
Applies to bets placed on the Arkle Chase from 8am 28th February.
Applies to win (and win part of each way) single bets only placed before the start of the race.
The customer's selection must run for the refund to apply.
Does not apply to extra markets.
Does not apply to Tote bets.
 
I read that this morning but is that €100 per customer (sum total of bets on more than 1 horse in the Arkle) or per bet?
 
The max total refund is €100(in theory) but I have 5 shops in easy reach and will have some assistance.
The theory is in an 8 runner Arkle the betting percentage will be something like 110per cent.SS should be roughly 5/4 so backing all the other runners should roughly give you a 4/6 shot.The ton limit makes it trickier then previous years but I would still be hoping to invest a grand.A grand at 4/6 with no risk is a fair bet.
 
I have sufficient cover with Peddlers for a large chunk on Sprinter Sacre. If the price holds up at 5/4 with a NRNB concession it would be a huge ommission not to get stuck in. I already have a chunky double done with SS and Hurricane Fly and with Grands Cru for the RSA. The only thing holding me back is my complete exposure to one horse in a novice race and the fact that the burning smell from Last Instalment,Minsk and Fingal Bay is still pretty pungent!!
 
Hamm said:
I read that this morning but is that €100 per customer (sum total of bets on more than 1 horse in the Arkle) or per bet?
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Like it says 100 "per customer". But if you bet up to 100 in different shops (or on different horses) who could stop you.

Also, the point "The customer's selection must run for the refund to apply", suggests there will not be a NRNB stage.
 
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OTB-I remember towards the end of time in London,a few weeks before the festival I got the Racing Post while waiting for the bus to work.I had just tea about another of my ante post bets being injured when all of a sudden a fairly stiff breeze caught me on the hop and blew the paper from my hand.I didn't even attempt to pick it up as the pages blew around Camden Town.
Strangely enough it was 2003 when everyone had a great festival but that was more or less the end for me and ante post.
 
LUKE said:
OTB-I remember towards the end of time in London,a few weeks before the festival I got the Racing Post while waiting for the bus to work.I had just tea about another of my ante post bets being injured when all of a sudden a fairly stiff breeze caught me on the hop and blew the paper from my hand.I didn't even attempt to pick it up as the pages blew around Camden Town.
Strangely enough it was 2003 when everyone had a great festival but that was more or less the end for me and ante post.
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Sometimes you have to read the signs...there is a place called stop and maybe this year is just not for me and Cheltenham.
 
GoThey should run him in the Champion Hurdle again. More chance of beating Hurricane Fly than he has Sprinter Sacre :whistle:

Seriously though I think he will go for the Jewson after the tanking he took. I wouldn't think twice I were them.

Seems nuts trying to reverse form with SS when he looked even better last time and there's agood race like the Jewson to be had over a trip he's already won over in the Neptune.
 
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