Novice Chasers 2011-12

Zenyatta said:
I cannot understand and how Timeform still have Al Ferof as the top rated novice. I am certain that Sprinter Sacre's Newbury effort is far superior to Al Ferof's 3rd in the Victor Chandler.

My own view would be much more in line with the OR, but probably more exaggerated because I think Al Ferof might be a little overrated on the Ascot form.
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yes
I think SS is a stone better than AF at the moment and has more scope
 
Exactly. Al Ferof looks (relatively) exposed at 2m in that his Ascot performance was as good as he is at the trip. He might improve for Cheltenham, he might improve for good ground, but we are talking a few lbs here, nothing dramatic. In contrast Sprinter Sacre has no ceiling on what he might be able to achieve.

I think Sprinter Sacre on 169 is about right, but would have Al Ferof nearer 155, which, coincidentally, is a stone below SS as you suggest.
 
The novice winners invariably improve on their extant ratings in winning at the Festival, so a ratings based analysis for the novices is largely a waste of time. You need to look at them decide who has the scope for improvement and has all of the tools in the box for the task at hand.
 
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Zenyatta said:
Exactly. Al Ferof looks (relatively) exposed at 2m in that his Ascot performance was as good as he is at the trip. He might improve for Cheltenham, he might improve for good ground, but we are talking a few lbs here, nothing dramatic. In contrast Sprinter Sacre has no ceiling on what he might be able to achieve.

I think Sprinter Sacre on 169 is about right, but would have Al Ferof nearer 155, which, coincidentally, is a stone below SS as you suggest.
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Has anyone re-watched last years supreme recently? I watched it again the other night and I'd forgotten how well Sprinter Sacre travelled in that race but in some ways that has made me more cautious about him again. He has undoubtedly improved for fences but the way he travelled in the supreme is not dissimilar to how he has travelled in his chases this year and there still has to be a doubt about how much he is going to find up the hill.
 
I have watched it a fair few times and still can't get my head round it entirely.

Cue Card looked the best coming down the hill, and then Sprinter Sacre loomed up travelling strongest coming to two out. Then push came to shove and both found very little, as Spirit Son stayed on past them, but not as strongly as Al Ferof who fairly stormed up the hill. The problem I have is that it was not Al Ferof finishing 'quickly' (in absolute terms) because he was badly outpaced from the top of the hill. Therefore, the others must have been stopping in front. I have had a close look at it and I should think Sprinter Sacre loses 10 lengths or so on Al Ferof from the second last.

The question must then be will he do the same this year?

He has the benefit of another year on his back, plus a breathing operation. That might well mean that he storms up the hill this year and people will be wondering why the question was ever raised. However, there still remains the possibility that he will do the same again. There can be no doubt that he found very little because he was the only horse on the bridle at the second last but there was no response once he was asked for his effort and his jump at the final flight was that of a tired horse, running on empty.

Like you, the way he travelled into the race last year is very reminiscent of the way he has travelled this year. The fact that he jumps so quickly, travels so well and is keen must mean that he will be handy, whether Barry Geraghty wants to be or not. He will jump or pull himself to the front. I am sure the pace will be strong, but in some ways the stronger the gallop the more likely he is to be in front because, relative to everything else, he will find the pace easier. That might mean he is forced into 'committing' earlier than would be ideal. Assuming that a few can keep tabs on him, no certainty I might add, he could then be vulnerable to a fast finisher up the hill.

Ever since the Victor Chandler I have been of the opinion that Peddlers Cross is the only one that has the requisite qualities for the task at hand. He himself has questions to answer but I would still expect him to at least make a race of things.

Sprinter Sacre is clearly exceptional but in many ways it is the extent of his brilliance that might be his downfall. His jumping is so good, he travels so powerfully and so keenly that he could cut his own throat when he is faced with the hill.

So to answer the question, there are reasons to support both arguments. He might but he might not. Decisive or what?! :whistle:
 
Zenyatta said:
Cue Card looked the best coming down the hill, and then Sprinter Sacre loomed up travelling strongest coming to two out. Then push came to shove and both found very little, as Spirit Son stayed on past them, but not as strongly as Al Ferof who fairly stormed up the hill. The problem I have is that it was not Al Ferof finishing 'quickly' (in absolute terms) because he was badly outpaced from the top of the hill. Therefore, the others must have been stopping in front. I have had a close look at it and I should think Sprinter Sacre loses 10 lengths or so on Al Ferof from the second last.

The question must then be will he do the same this year?
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The way I see it is this, the best hurdlers can gain ground at the business end of the race as their fluent jumping puts distance between them and their rivals - the same is true of chasers. Sprinter Sacre was only an average jumper of the smaller obstacles, he stumbled over the last in the Supreme and wasn't that fluent at the second last either. The only momentum he had was through his strong travelling. The hurdles were obstacles that slowed him down. That will obviously not be the case in the Arkle. Chances are his excellent jumping will see him approach the hill with the momentum he just didn't have last year. And of course the Arkle is actually over a slightly shorter trip as well. To add to all that he is more experienced now. In Al Ferof and Cue Card last year he was up against animals who had already run at the Festival, and in Spirit Son a specialist over timber. Would I tuck in if I already wasn't heavily involved? No, I still remember Well Chief in 2007. But I wouldn't oppose him either.
 
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Ordinarily, you want to be on something that gets home over a strongly run 2m at Cheltenham......even moreso at the Festival. And if your taking on genuine, classy and stout types like Al Ferof and Peddlars Cross, you don't really want to be taking too short a price about a horse with stamina doubts over the course.

Those with Sprinter Sacre from the outset undoubtedly have themselves some nice positions, and all things considered, I agree with supporters; he really could be something exceptional. But the boat left me on the island, and I have to oppose at current odds. I am on Peddlers at 7's and will dutch with Al Ferof. At least I can expect a run for my money.
 
Guys I can't find any reason to oppose Sprinter Sacre.

I based my entire case on him beating Peddler's Crooss on the fact the only reason he didn't win the Suprme and Al Ferof was able to catch him was because he was simply too immature to cope.

The very fact the Barry chose to ride Sprirt Son for that very reason backs that up and Barry hasn't any doubt in his mind he'll treat the hill with total contempt and wont even notice it's there.

This horse has won 3 times and fiished like he could pull a train behind him and still win.
He's not going to stop I'd bet my life savings on it. Almost have ;)

If he's beaten it will be because he is still a novice and could get one wrong and the unthinkable happens, he ends up on the deck or Peddlers Cross's run proves to be all wrong and he beats him fair and square. SS will stay further IMO and stamina is not a problem.

I can't understand anyone who says I think he'll win but I am backing so and so. Rather an even money winner than a 10/1 loser. Even if it is only for a couple of quid, that couple of quid becomes 4 quid you can have on a 4/1 shot with a realistc chance of winning.

Back against him and as Grassy would put it "yer aff yer heid" :lol:
 
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I fear that the Betfair market is signalling a problem with Al Ferof now. Very weak and drifting all the time on the exchanges. Out to 7/1 having been trading at 5/1 for weeks. Only £19 waiting to back in the win market and just £6 in the place market.

By way of comparison, Sprinter Sacre has £1161 and Peddlers Cross £324 waiting to back in the win market.

Hope the market is wrong this time but it is usually spot on I'm afraid.
 
When interviewed on ATR the owner said AP got off Sprinter Sacre after the Supreme and said the horse had a wind problem - if the op has sorted it thenI don't think we need to worry about him getting up the hill.
 
Euronymous said:
The way I see it is this, the best hurdlers can gain ground at the business end of the race as their fluent jumping puts distance between them and their rivals - the same is true of chasers. Sprinter Sacre was only an average jumper of the smaller obstacles, he stumbled over the last in the Supreme and wasn't that fluent at the second last either. The only momentum he had was through his strong travelling. The hurdles were obstacles that slowed him down. That will obviously not be the case in the Arkle. Chances are his excellent jumping will see him approach the hill with the momentum he just didn't have last year. And of course the Arkle is actually over a slightly shorter trip as well. To add to all that he is more experienced now. In Al Ferof and Cue Card last year he was up against animals who had already run at the Festival, and in Spirit Son a specialist over timber. Would I tuck in if I already wasn't heavily involved? No, I still remember Well Chief in 2007. But I wouldn't oppose him either.
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Well Chief's another that didn't quite last home over hurdles, but never, ever, had problems staying Cheltenham's 2m over fences. Despite all the hoo-hah about needing to stay 2.5m to win an Arkle, you just don't, as he proved on many, many occasions.
Hurdles don't slow horses down nearly as much as fences, the consequence being the latter pose less of a stamina test, and those hoping/betting that Sprinter Sacre won't last home are chasing rainbows - much the same as Joe Tizzard, who imagines Cue Card will set a sufficient test to outjump or outstay him.
 
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Indications from Betfair, ie Betfair price substantially above general bookies level, are that there might only be 6 or 7 runners in the Arkle. As one who has a significant portion of my portfolio AP on Al Ferof I hope it does not turn into a tactical race which would not favour my selection.

SS is clearly the one to beat and whilst I have a value bet I cannotbe particularly confident though 7/2 the place is some small consolation.

Actually for me the picture is somewhat similar to that of the Gold Cup where I have backed another Al.
 
I note that Tizzard plans to stretch the field to expose any stamina flaws in SS. The plan looks set to backfire though as all it will do is ensure the class horse wins. Sure horses need to stay relatively well, but they don't need to be Grand National material.
 
I've already opposed SE with Finian's Rainbow, who I think has a huge chance in the Champion Chase. Somersby had to run right up to his best to beat him at Ascot and SE has been massively overrated on his last run in which Big Zeb ran no sort of race.

I've got a lot of respect for SE but believe FR has a tremendous chance against him and at the prices have to be with the latter.
 
SteveM said:
I've already opposed SE with Finian's Rainbow, who I think has a huge chance in the Champion Chase. Somersby had to run right up to his best to beat him at Ascot and SE has been massively overrated on his last run in which Big Zeb ran no sort of race.

I've got a lot of respect for SE but believe FR has a tremendous chance against him and at the prices have to be with the latter.
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I'll second that:).outstanding value imo
 
SteveM said:
I've already opposed SE with Finian's Rainbow, who I think has a huge chance in the Champion Chase. Somersby had to run right up to his best to beat him at Ascot and SE has been massively overrated on his last run in which Big Zeb ran no sort of race.

I've got a lot of respect for SE but believe FR has a tremendous chance against him and at the prices have to be with the latter.
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Agree, even if it didn't need to be said.

SE is the most likely winner, but he has had a lot of racing now, and I think FR is an each way bet to nothing. He jumped outstandingly well in the Victor Chandler.
 
I think Sizing Europe is more solid in the QM than Hurricane Fly or Big Bucks in the hdl races.
Impossible to oppose and odds against is a clear bet.
 
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