Novice Chasers 2011-12

My position being I took around 9's and a host of prices down to 4's on peddlers ante post.I also backed sprinter sacre and have that at some fancy prices too and would be better off with SS winning.....but as as been said its not all about the betting.
A few points...........
McCain has been bullish about the chances of peddlers cross for the Arkle all season.The horse runs into sprinter sacre who is obviously very good and gets put in its place-hammered.After the race everyone concedes pc was at a loss after hitting the first etc but McCain says the horse is not right.He has never actually said what was wrong with the horse.in various previews and as recent as the weekend they have said plan a was the Arkle,he even has Jason McGuire singing off the same hymn sheet.
I'll always agree with the notion that the trainers priority is firstly the welfare of the horse then the owners.The horse shortened up significantly a few weeks back then drifts like a barge,begs the question who's been laying the guts out of it.I suppose the point I'm trying to make is I'd respect the guy more and wouldn't question their integrity if he came out and said they were swerving the Arkle as sprinter sacre is hot one and we have more chance in more open race,not talk down SS as a flat track bully etc etc then make up some wishy washy excuse and withdraw the horse for the Neptune.
 
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Pearsy said:
Agree 100%. Can't believe how this horse is being written off already, I still believe he can be a future Gold Cup contender. Sprinter Sacre looks truely spectacular but I think all racefans want to see him be given a race as opposed to a canter round :(
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Don't agree he's been written off as an excellent prospect - just not over 2 miles (which some picked up long before he met Sprinter Sacre).
Despite all his 'supposed' niggles, he was never, ever, in the same race as the latter, and DM's gut reaction proved far more telling than all the excuses and obfuscation that arose subsequently.
 
I said all along I didn't think Peddlers Cross wasn't up to much, and I don't think him missing the Arkle makes a huge difference. As luck would have it for me, he is now favourite for the Jewson. Solix had a huge engine and is much overpriced at 9s e/w, and I need to look at Cristal Bonus's last race to see how he shapes up. I'm not a fan of For non stop, so this race has a very nice betting shape from where I'm standing.
 
Surely must be the owners decision to go Jewson,seeing it as the easier race.They come across as wanting to run at all costs at the festival when in reality the horse might benefit from being put away.look at how they campaigned overturn....run the guts out of it.not a layer usually but pc got to be a lay now,2easy wins at Bngor and a hammering and might not be 100%.solix for me too,each way steal.
 
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Now may be the time to start backing one or more of the other RSA horses than Grands Crus. I feel pretty sure they will make the mistake of going for the Gold Cup.
 
Sir Des Champs and Invictus are my pair for the Jewson with Peddler’s Cross and For Non Stop next best.
 
What about Solix? Looks to have just about the best form, his jumping has improved and he is strongly fancied at Seven Barrows.
 
Hamm said:
Btw, do you know both of your pair are RSA bound?
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I suppose which way Grands Crus goes will play a part in that. But yes they would figure in my RSA reckoning too. I given up trying to second guess where they will all finish up, taking advantage of the NRNB or any race options. (I've backed several horses for more than one race in the past few days.)

I would hope Grands Crus goes the novice route. Scare stories over Kauto and Long Run would point people to the conclusion that GC would go for the Gold Cup. But as I'm expecting Long Run and Kauto to both turn up that may swing things back to the RSA for GC and to the Jewson for the two others.
 
Invictus will definitely run in the RSA, and I'd be surprised if Sir Des Champs didn't too. Mullins has always said he wanted to go that way. I don't think Grands Crus' participation has anything to do with their target in this instance.
 
Maybe not. As I say I've given up second guessing these last minute switches. I'm not surprised Peddler's Cross has switched but am still uncertain as to what GC will do if Long Run and Kauto line up in the Gold Cup. But these things tend to have a ripple effect on other double entries, despite what connections may have earlier preferred. If you have a fancy it's probably best to back it for everything it's entered in NRNB at this stage.
 
i think king will go with merdermitt for gold cup and invictus for the jewson

also think sir des champs could be mistakenly sent to the rsa

agree with hamm on solix for the jewson

for peddlers cross the fences are not any easier in the jewson than the arkle and a lot stiffer than bangor's
 
I suspect where Grand Crus goes depends entirely on Kauto . Trying to keep up with the latter in full flight will be dangerous for a novice and they know it even if Kauto then does not get up the hill. A plodding Gold Cup without him will be easier to manage.

Even so I think it is a serious mistake to run a novice in the GC they are simply unprepared for it . Beefy was lucky to escape with his life - jumping at speed put him on the floor , Gloria Victis and Lanzarote lost their lives and Therealbandit was never the same horse again .
 
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The rumour Grand Crus is he's going for the Gold cup no matter what happens with Kauto Star hence the drift on Long Run.

Funny thing about Grand Crus is I don't think of him as a novice. He seems a very mature horse with no quirks the likes of Cue Card and Menorah have.

As far s jumping at speed is concerned Crand Crus has a major asset in that department. He has one of the highest cruising speeds in racing and even Gold Cup pace will seem slow to him.

He did worry me a bit when he first went chasing but now I'd be more concerned about him staying the trip than I would him falling to be honest.

Can't wait until Sunday if they do meet Granger, they are both brilliant young horses.

I would have went hands down with Bog Warrior a couple of months ago but now I think I'll watch and learn as this Flemenstar looks the real deal.
 
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Pearsy said:
Agree 100%. Can't believe how this horse is being written off already, I still believe he can be a future Gold Cup contender. Sprinter Sacre looks truely spectacular but I think all racefans want to see him be given a race as opposed to a canter round :(
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I sincerely doubt that.

I fully expect Sprinter Sacre to continue doing what he's has been doing and anihilate them and prove he is the second coming.

Ruby Walsh seems quite bulish about Al Ferof but with a cautionary note attached. Ruby said "if we get into a fight" and that is one big "if" as he's probably on the least likely of the main challengers likely to keep up.

So many of his fans harp back to the Supreme but fail to take the obvious from the race. All they see is Al Ferof flying up the hill what they fail to see is Sprinter Sacre without turning a hair leaving him for dead as the swept round into the straight.

They say Sprinter Sacre didn't get up the hill and chose to ignore he had gone before the hill and that the first thing AP said getting of him was he had trouble with his wind.

A year on a wind operation and 3 spectcular races later including making the Champion Hurdle 2nd look like a boat and you have the best novice chaser you are ever likely to lay eyes on.

IMVHO There is going to be no race nor shall there be a fight because the others simply aren't in the same class.

This horse is so superior hardly anything looks like turning up and it could end up like the 1966 when Arkle himself did an exhibition round to lift the Gold Cup.....he should be 1/11 not 10/11:p
 
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