Novice chasers 2013/14

While Dodging Bullets has had a good season, how many run like he didinthe Supreme and win an Arkle?

I think Champagne Fever and Rock on Ruby will fight this out, both huge ew bets at current odds.
 
Valdez jumps to the right a bit. Has reached for a few and made 4 or 5 mistakes in his 3 runs so far.

135 OR as Hurdler. CF 157 & DB 156 over hurdles.

20 lbs to find in speed terms and he is not as good a jumper as DB.

Big ask to win an Arkle!
 
Hamm said:
While Dodging Bullets has had a good season, how many run like he didinthe Supreme and win an Arkle?

I think Champagne Fever and Rock on Ruby will fight this out, both huge ew bets at current odds.
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How is CF an e/w bet when he's missed his last two engagements?
 
I don't see that as a problem unless you have heard something I haven't? I don't think there is a doubt over his participation, he jumps excellently (one mistake aside) and would be nigh on unbeatable in a battle up the hill.
 
If he had enough pace to win a Supreme, and beat horses like MTOY, then he definitely has enough pace to win an Arkle.
 
Hamm said:
If he had enough pace to win a Supreme, and beat horses like MTOY, then he definitely has enough pace to win an Arkle.
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War of Attrition was beaten a head by a future Champion Hudler in the Supreme but didn't have enough pace for the Arkle.
 
I think you definitely need a quicker horse for the Arkle than the Supreme. I fear CF may not have enough speed from the back of the last to win it. I still think Grandouet will be there or thereabouts if he gets there safe and well.
 
Explain that please Treff... im obv being stupid. Hurdles races must be faster than Chase races??
 
Times are very similar in the Arkle, Supreme and Champion Hurdle over the past 5 years anyway.

Champion hurdle is officially listed as two miles and 110 yards.
Where as the Arkle may be a dead 2 mile even. Not sure on this?


Year.. Arkle. . SupNov. ChampH. Going
2013 / 4.01.64 / 3.55.60 / 3.59.35 / Soft
2012 / 3.51.10 / 3.52.70 / 3.50.10 / Good
2011 / 3.51.68 / 3.52.10 / 3.53.71 / Good
2010 / 3.52.60 / 3.56.54 / 3.53.80 / Good/Soft
2009 / 4.01.00 / 4.01.00 / 4.00.90 / Good/Soft

It's not too fond of letting you put in spaces when typing a message..Posting the above was hard work I have to admit :blink:
 
Supreme and CH is 1/2 furlung extra. Not sure if im missing the point but Hurdle races should be faster than Chases simpy due to time in Air etc!?
 
Digger said:
Explain that please Treff... im obv being stupid. Hurdles races must be faster than Chase races??
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The time for a hurdle race will obviously be quicker, fences being the main reason. I do think that you need a thorough stayer to win the Supreme...Al Ferof, Champagne Fever to name but two. I just think to win a top level two mile chase, you need a nimble horse with lots of flat speed.

Would Champagne Fever win a ten furlong race on the flat? That's the type of speed I think you need to win the Arkle. I think Dodging Bullets, Grandouet and Trifolium have that kind of toe.
 
The Arkle is less of a test than the Supreme for the simple reason there are more, and bigger, obstacles to break the pace up.
For exactly the same reason, a 2m flat race is more of a stamina test than the same distance over hurdles.
 
trefflich said:
I think Dodging Bullets, Grandouet and Trifolium have that kind of toe.
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Maybe they do, trefflich..........but then again, none of the above have actually won an Arkle yet, have they?

For all that I agree you need the ability to quicken in an Arkle, a look at the list of winners will tell you it's a graveyard for horses that don't get at least 2m4f over fences.

Speedy/flash types don't win this race.
 
Grasshopper said:
Maybe they do, trefflich..........but then again, none of the above have actually won an Arkle yet, have they?

For all that I agree you need the ability to quicken in an Arkle, a look at the list of winners will tell you it's a graveyard for horses that don't get at least 2m4f over fences.

Speedy/flash types don't win this race.
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We don't know the above will not get 2m 4f yet...
 
trefflich said:
We don't know the above will not get 2m 4f yet...
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Grandouet wouldn't get 2m4f in a G1 chase, if he started the Saturday before.

The point I was challenging was the one you made suggesting you need '10f flat speed' to win an Arkle. On all known evidence, you don't.

That is an indisputable fact, in my view.
 
Sound jumping and ability to stay a strongly run 2m seem to be the biggest assets needed looking a the winners.
 
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Grasshopper said:
For all that I agree you need the ability to quicken in an Arkle, a look at the list of winners will tell you it's a graveyard for horses that don't get at least 2m4f over fences.

Speedy/flash types don't win this race.
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The vast majority of chasers ultimately stay 2m 4f, if only because they're not quick enough to win over shorter. That's a world apart from having the speed - as a novice - to win an Arkle.
Why, would you suggest, do Supreme winners have such a poor record in the race?
 
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