Novice chasers 2014/15

links781 said:
The way he travelled today mainly and at the way he won the supreme also.Shoot me down in flames but he just doesn't strike me as a 2 miler.If he went the arkle route he would be most likely winner for me through sheer class but to my eye he just looks more comfortable travelling and staying.I can see why they think he could be a future GC horse quite easily.just my opinion.
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Ah my mistake I thought you were refering to unde sceaux
 
My prediction is that UDS will drift after the Irish Arkle. Either due to a fall, a narrow win or because he simply isn't good enough.

Does it not concern people that Mullins has been dodging grade 1's with him? He effectively said as much in an interview. When Mullins has a good one he doesn't normally take long to pitch them into top company. Hurricane fly, Vautour, Pont Alexandre, Allez Colombieres (although we never found out how good he was), Kalkir are all horses that back up that view and it concerns me that he's so circumspect in his placing. It might be the horses style of racing and natural exuberance that is worrying Mullins and has made him take his time but I firmly believe that if Vautour hadn't had his hiccup, he would have been lining up in the Irish Arkle and UDS would have run in that egg and spoon on Sunday.
 
Depending how entries pan out there's an argument that says the Irish Arkle could be the hottest two mile chase of the season so far. If that is the case and he wins it I'd say the doubters will be eating their words.

On the other hand if Gilgamboa wins Willie will be second guessing his own second guesses!
 
Aragorn said:
Does it not concern people that Mullins has been dodging grade 1's with him? He effectively said as much in an interview. When Mullins has a good one he doesn't normally take long to pitch them into top company.
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I don't think he was dodging grade 1's with UDS as such. If WPM were to step him up to Grade 1 hurdles last season, UDS would have had to take on the Fly. And we all know that WPM does not pitch his top horses against each other. This season, UDS has had 2 novice chases before heading for the Grade 1 Irish Arkle, on his way to Cheltenham. I would think this is a standard enough path for a 2m novice chaser. In terms of the race itself, UDS does not know it's a higher graded race than he's been in before and I can't see anything remotely taking him on for the lead on Sunday. I expect him to bowl off in front as usual and then it will be just a matter of seeing if he is as good as some of us think and hope he is. Personally I don't think they'll see which way he went and if he stays up, I can see him winning hard held!
 
Looks like a small field Irish Arkle. Current entries:

Apache Stronghold
Clarcam
Gilgamboa
Un De Sceaux
Valseur Lido
 
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Think Coneygree picked-up a minor knock yesterday, and connections still expect to make Cheltenham, I think.
 
David Pipe's Sail by the Sea was due to run today (Abandoned) Needs 2 runs to get handicapped before Cheltenham. Already showed he's no mug when 3rd to Grumeti and looked in need of it.

One to keep an eye on for sure
 
Double Handful said:
I don't think he was dodging grade 1's with UDS as such. If WPM were to step him up to Grade 1 hurdles last season, UDS would have had to take on the Fly. And we all know that WPM does not pitch his top horses against each other. This season, UDS has had 2 novice chases before heading for the Grade 1 Irish Arkle, on his way to Cheltenham. I would think this is a standard enough path for a 2m novice chaser. In terms of the race itself, UDS does not know it's a higher graded race than he's been in before and I can't see anything remotely taking him on for the lead on Sunday. I expect him to bowl off in front as usual and then it will be just a matter of seeing if he is as good as some of us think and hope he is. Personally I don't think they'll see which way he went and if he stays up, I can see him winning hard held!
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He's done fine with Faugheen this season. He could have run UDS in the fighting fifth, christmas hurdle or Aintree Hurdle but he didn't. He farmed a few soft races then went to France. Some might say it was good placing/prize money and I'd agree but if Mullins thought this horse was a top notcher he wouldn't be this far into his career before tackling a grade 1. And he wouldn't have been running if Vautour hadn't fluffed his lines.
 
Just to further emphasise the point here is a quote from the great man himself - From the RP site:

Un De Sceaux has never run in Grade 1 company, with a Grade 2 win at Auteuil his biggest victory to date, and Mullins said: "We've been avoiding the issue with Un De Sceaux and going round the place in his hurdling career, but now we are going to let him run in Grade 1 races to see what happens."

Does he sound confident? Pretty sure this was from an ATR interview the other day and he didn't sound confident then but he is a circumspect chap.

I initially thought this horse was a monster but the seeming lack of real stable confidence over the last season and a half has made me temper that view.
 
I'm convinced UDS is a horse who needs it bottomless, and this has played a major part in the way that Mullins has campaigned him to date. It doesn't look like he will get his ground on Sunday, which might explain Mullins' less than enthusiastic comments.
 
Aragorn said:
He's done fine with Faugheen this season. He could have run UDS in the fighting fifth, christmas hurdle or Aintree Hurdle but he didn't. He farmed a few soft races then went to France. Some might say it was good placing/prize money and I'd agree but if Mullins thought this horse was a top notcher he wouldn't be this far into his career before tackling a grade 1. And he wouldn't have been running if Vautour hadn't fluffed his lines.
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You forget, the Neptune at last years festival was Faugheens first Grade 1. Also, Hurricane Fly is a huge factor when trying to compare UDS hurdle campaign last season V Faugheen this season. Last year WPM did not even have an Arctic Fire or Diakali type in the Champion Hurdle, never mind a Faugheen. It was Hurricane Fly only! Such was the belief in the horse. This year is a very different story regarding HF at Cheltenham. His 14/1 price V his 5/1 price last season is solid proof of that. Annie Power wasn't even allowed upset the CH plans of HF, never mind UDS. Therefore, comparing Faugheen this season v UDS last season is an unfair and inaccurate comparison imo. It's also common knowledge that UDS is a bit of a character and can be temperamental etc. I am of the opinion that this is more so the reason for his previous race placement, as opposed to his ability. Bear in mind he has still won 2 x G2 and 1 x G3 over hurdles. You mention "the seeming lack of real stable confidence over the last season and a half" - I'm not sure what you mean by stable confidence? Every time he runs he is backed heavily and goes off at a stupid price and Ruby always speaks glowingly of him in his column. You also say that "he wouldn't have been running if Vautour hadn't fluffed his lines." I'm not so sure about this. As far as I have read from Ruby all year, he's been suggesting consistently that it's UDS for the Arkle and Vautour for the JLT. I appreciate it's almost impossible to second guess WPM, but that has been the indication all year imo.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm convinced UDS is a horse who needs it bottomless, and this has played a major part in the way that Mullins has campaigned him to date. It doesn't look like he will get his ground on Sunday, which might explain Mullins' less than enthusiastic comments.
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Now this is something that is a possibility. We have yet to see UDS on anything better than soft. I wouldn't be so sure he needs it 'Bottomless' Grassy.
UDS has had 7 runs in Ireland. 5 were on 'Soft' ground and only 2 were on 'Heavy' ground. I think soft is no problem to him. It's when 'Yielding' or 'Good' come into the equation that we enter the unknown with him. Currently at Leopardstown - GOING: Hurdle course - YIELDING TO SOFT (Soft in places); Chase course - SOFT (Soft to heavy in places). It rained a fair bit yesterday and last night with dry forecast for today and tomorrow. Rain due then again on Friday, with Saturday forecast to be dry and then showers on Sunday itself. Bearing all that in mind, I'm just not sure how much better the ground will get. The chase course will still likely have some 'Soft' in the description.
 
I'd assumed that Leopardstown was going to be reasonably quick, after Walsh commented he'd like a 'spot of rain' for Hurricane Fly on Sunday, though that doesn't appear to be the case, given the Going report and the forecast.

If Ground conditions haven't played their part in the campaigning of UDS, then perhaps it is down to connections considering him to be short of the very top-class.......though given his profile, it's a little odd that they didn't throw him into a G1 hurdle race to find out for sure. The Hattons Grace, for example, would have been right up his street, and Mullins only had Zaidpour and Diakali running for him, so no danger of upsetting the apple-cart with the yard's best.

It's all very odd.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'd assumed that Leopardstown was going to be reasonably quick, after Walsh commented he'd like a 'spot of rain' for Hurricane Fly on Sunday, though that doesn't appear to be the case, given the Going report and the forecast.
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It would appear that the hurdle course is currently a fair bit quicker than chase course for some reason.
I remember Davy Russell interviewed after the first Hurdle race on Sunday just gone, and he seemed quite surprised himself just how quick the ground was.
I would imagine it was the way the ground rode on Sunday that drew those comments from Walsh regarding liking a spot of rain. He got 3mm for starters last night anyway!

http://www.leopardstown.com/Leopardstown/Racing-Updates/Ground-and-Weather-Update/
 
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