Novice chasers 2014/15

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Double Handful said:
You forget, the Neptune at last years festival was Faugheens first Grade 1. Also, Hurricane Fly is a huge factor when trying to compare UDS hurdle campaign last season V Faugheen this season. Last year WPM did not even have an Arctic Fire or Diakali type in the Champion Hurdle, never mind a Faugheen. It was Hurricane Fly only! Such was the belief in the horse. This year is a very different story regarding HF at Cheltenham. His 14/1 price V his 5/1 price last season is solid proof of that. Annie Power wasn't even allowed upset the CH plans of HF, never mind UDS. Therefore, comparing Faugheen this season v UDS last season is an unfair and inaccurate comparison imo. It's also common knowledge that UDS is a bit of a character and can be temperamental etc. I am of the opinion that this is more so the reason for his previous race placement, as opposed to his ability. Bear in mind he has still won 2 x G2 and 1 x G3 over hurdles. You mention "the seeming lack of real stable confidence over the last season and a half" - I'm not sure what you mean by stable confidence? Every time he runs he is backed heavily and goes off at a stupid price and Ruby always speaks glowingly of him in his column. You also say that "he wouldn't have been running if Vautour hadn't fluffed his lines." I'm not so sure about this. As far as I have read from Ruby all year, he's been suggesting consistently that it's UDS for the Arkle and Vautour for the JLT. I appreciate it's almost impossible to second guess WPM, but that has been the indication all year imo.
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I'm not forgetting, it was Faugheen's novice season and what his 4th race? And I've put up a quote where Mullins is basically admitting he's been pot hunting and avoiding Grade 1's! And what has the Arctic Fire/Diakali notion got to do with it? I'm pretty sure the general consensus on here would be that Un De Sceaux is a better hurdler so by that logic UDST should have been running against the Fly and the latters AP prices are just a reflection of his age and the fact he got beat last year!

There might be some truth in Grassy's point about the ground but as he also points out the Hattons Grace or Morgiana, whichever the Fly ain't in, should have been on his radar.

I still think my assertion holds true that when Mullins has a good one he doesn't wait till their 12th start to pitch them into a grade 1.

And finally, when did Walsh say that about UDS/Vautour?
 
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There's never been any absolute confirmation that it's UDS/Arkle and Vautour/JLT, Aragorn, but connections have dropped strong-enough hints that Vautour can easily go up in trip, whereas they appear to think UDS is strictly a two-miler.

Slim Chance also marked cards at the start of the season, that this was the way connections expected to go. I won't betray how he established this, as he obviously doesn't want it getting out that he offers wanks to stable-lads, for scraps of critical betting information.
 
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Aragorn said:
And finally, when did Walsh say that about UDS/Vautour?
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Walsh has consistently suggested it in his Paddy Power blog all season. As Grassy says, there has never been absolute confirmation, But the indicators have been there. After every UDS run, when interviewed, Ruby always speaks about the Arkle being his target. "I'd imagine we'll try and get one more run into him before a tilt at the Arkle". That's just one quote from his blog in December after UDS last run. Whereas after Vautours win the other day Ruby was saying he could even be stepped up further in trip! Also the market is a huge indicator. Currently with Paddy Power UDS is 2/1 for the Arkle and Vautour is 8/1 ! With Ruby as their in house guy I can only assume that they know the score. I have no big Antepost position on either horse, so I believe I am being objective here.
 
Aragorn said:
And what has the Arctic Fire/Diakali notion got to do with it? I'm pretty sure the general consensus on here would be that Un De Sceaux is a better hurdler so by that logic UDST should have been running against the Fly and the latters AP prices are just a reflection of his age and the fact he got beat last year!
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You've kind of agreed with me here in your counter argument. I agree 100% that AP prices are a reflection of his age and his true chance. Hence the reason why WPM has Faugheen and Arctic Fire/Diakali in the CH this season. This was not the case last season. He had no other entrants. Why? Because they went there 100% confident that the Fly would win the Champion Hurdle. This was quite a big factor in the decision not to send UDS to Cheltenham last season imo. To expand on that a little further, if UDS had of run in the CH last season, it would have hampered the Fly's chances imo. The pace he would have set would have played into Jezki & TNO's hands a lot more. And you'd have to think that WPM would have factored this in when plotting a course for UDS.
 
anyone opposing that at cheltenham simply needs to pray he won't handle the track

he's miles and miles better than any other 2m novices around
 
What a machine!! What price the Arkle now?

Oddschecker updated: Bit of 11/8 there still with Betfair Sportsbook. Evens or odds on most places already..
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Makes you wonder why he didn't run in the champion hurdle.
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there were two people on this forum i can remember praying for that last year..Suny+myself...the general concensus was that beating trees didn't tell you anything...when in fact the clock told you he should have been there..i think that proves he should have been
 
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Smashing horse, little bit of a tearaway, 2nd horse only won last time because Vautour FU, didn't learn that much with AP's running no sort of race.

If the bookies cut him for the Arkle I wouldn't back him again as you have no idea how he will react to pressure.....would love to see him do a Dunkirk and take off like a rocket nothing get near him and make all
 
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