Novice Chasers 2015/16

when a horse wins against a decent opponent in a time like that..i don't worry about "class" in past races..what he did today was far better than anything he has done in the past

it was same with UDS when he was winning novice hurdles..the clock told you he was very good..no one believed it though and those races were dismissed by most folk as egg and spooners

he has done something special today...something very few NH horses will get close too bar such as SS and possibly Vautour at some point
 
Kauto Abu said:
Hold your horses until ye see Vaniteux tomorrow in the Wayward Lad. From what I've seen on both horses Vaniteux is the better jumper, and at speed, Douvan has put in 2 or 3 sketchy jumps at hack canters. More than enough to suggest he'll put them in at speed too.

Vaniteux was Sprinter Sacre esq on his chasing debut and @ 8/1 for March 'd be more than than interested to follow suit.


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if vaniteux betters that performance today i'll be amazed..he will need to be one of the best horses of the last 10 years to do so
 
Dont see Douvan as a poor/average jumper at all. The two horses that he broke today, Ttebbob and Velvet Maker, would be perfectly viable candidates for the Arkle in a normal year. Working on the basis that his horse is more talented than anything Mullins has previous until proven wrong. Only thing that stops him in the Arkle is an injury.
 
EC1 said:
that same animal..when he don't meet Douvan...wins G1+G2 laughing at oppo.
Its a bit like a horse beating Denman by 15 each time they meet and you saying..calm down..its same hoss every time.
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Those were listed events at best. Seeing Denman's name in the same post is turning the world upside down. Vaniteux & Kitten Rock, if he beats these 2 by a nose he's a good horse. And L'ami Serge would've got alot closer in the Supreme last year if not for the constant hampering, would probably beat him with a better ride. Seeing Douvan beat the same mid-140 horse constantly is not making me jump around when seeing his odds-on price. His performance in Supreme is the only one giving him some substance but not below 3/1, even accounting for Mullins hype he made for this horse saying he's the best he brought to Chelt...
 
He might or might not better Douvan's performance tomorrow EC1, but If I'm right about him I think he'll put in a better jumping performance than Douvan today (hit last 2 or 3) and still win well.

It's a jumping game and on that score alone Vaniteux has been flawless thus far. Impeccable in fact & looking for more of that tomorrow.


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He'd need to be putting in a better jumping performance, since he won't be leaping out of ground anywhere as deep as Douvan had to.
 
Aughex said:
Those were listed events at best. Seeing Denman's name in the same post is turning the world upside down. Vaniteux & Kitten Rock, if he beats these 2 by a nose he's a good horse. And L'ami Serge would've got alot closer in the Supreme last year if not for the constant hampering, would probably beat him with a better ride. Seeing Douvan beat the same mid-140 horse constantly is not making me jump around when seeing his odds-on price. His performance in Supreme is the only one giving him some substance but not below 3/1, even accounting for Mullins hype he made for this horse saying he's the best he brought to Chelt...
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Sizing John is a 150 hoss for a start..

its not many days ago you were saying that Old Guard running against 150+ hosses in future was a useful exercise as you could measure his improvement if he beat them well..remember when Grass asked you what the point of beating 150 hosses was?...but now because it doesn't suit your argument you are decrying hammering 150+ hosses as not meaning anything
 
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Grasshopper said:
He'd need to be putting in a better jumping performance, since he won't be leaping out of ground anywhere as deep as Douvan had to.
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I think I'm on record here as comparing his chase debut to that of Sprinter Sacre 3 years ago at Doncaster with some of the shapes he made over his fences and the distance he stood of some of them. Breathtaking.

If I' right about him i'd be expecting something similar. If not I'll go back in my box.


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EC1 said:
Sizing John is a 150 hoss for a start..

its not many days ago you were saying that Old Guard running against 150+ hosses in future was a useful exercise as you could measure his improvement if he beat them well..remember when Grass asked you what the point of beating 150 hosses was?...but now because it doesn't suit your argument you are decrying hammering 150+ hosses as not meaning anything
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That wasn't in novice races, I was referring to established and reliable form with older horses. That 150+ novice rating for Sizing John is inflated. The graded events he won were farcical. Beating him on heavy ground by even more lengths proves nothing. Ttebbob also didn't do his job from the front, probably came too soon after his display at Navan 2 weeks ago. Most importantly a proper horse wasn't in the race, Kitten Rock would've been a perfect guide to Douvan's abilities. Cutting him to evens and backing him, even for accumulators is a guessing game because at least 3 horses could have a good shot against him Ar Mad, Vaniteux Kitten Rock. That makes it a 3/1 field accounting for the hype as well.
 
EC1 said:
it was same with UDS when he was winning novice hurdles..the clock told you he was very good..no one believed it though and those races were dismissed by most folk as egg and spooners
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I believed it when backing him for damn CH and losing lots of money because Mullins sent him to France... Douvan is nothing alike to my eyes, yet.

EC1 said:
he has done something special today...something very few NH horses will get close too bar such as SS and possibly Vautour at some point
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Come on, that heavy ground can make things very deceiving, even for time analysis. And putting him in same bracket with SS and a KG runner-up is too much hype and I cannot compute anymore...
 
granger said:
Vaniteux will be JLT bound along with the rest of them
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Nah. If he wins tomorrow he's entitled to line up in the Arkle as the best 2 miler in the UK. Douvan does look rather good though. I was part of the argument last season that he hadn't beaten much, which prior to the Supreme seemed to be true. Now we know Sizing John was just about the best of the rest so he's as decent a yardstick as you're likely to find from this group of novices.
 
Douvan didn't just beat horses that had already proven they were viable Arkle candidates prior to the race. He had them beat after a mile and didn't stop. In fact he completely broke 150 horses. They simply couldn't live with him.

This was only his second start over fences and the time was incredible. Not only that he was allowed to canter home over the last 4 furlongs and could have gone much quicker. He made a couple of sketchy jumps where he was smart enough to put himself right and the rest were fast and economical and he looked a natural. In addition he's already proven his liking for Cheltenham, and he's an even better horse on better ground.

I reckon he's that special that you could strap a jet pack to Vaniteux's arse in March and he still won't see which way Douvan goes. Stick him in the Champion Chase itself (which they won't) and he'll walk that too.

The last time I was this excited about a novice it was Kauto Star.
 
We're going to find out a lot about Vaniteux today. There's going to be a ferocious gallop on with Ar Mad & Arzal which will put his jumping to the test. He should have the speed & cruising speed to go with them and jumped for fun last time so hoping for more of the same today.

A lot of people seem to be handing Douvan the Arkle trophy already, similar to the way it was been handed to Champagne Fever in his Arkle year. A lot can between now & then even up to the day.

With Vaniteux, similar to Sprinter Sacre, it was always going to be about chasing. SS didn't exactly set the hurdling world alight but what a transformation once switched to the larger obstacle. I think Vaniteux could improve immeasurable for the switch to fences too.


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Champagne Fever never had the potential that Douvan has Kauto. Yes people fancied him for the Arkle but I'm not sure there's any comparison really. Douvan is in a different parish when compared to Champagne Fever at the same stage of his career. Just look at the times Douvan has put up and the way he's dispatched his opposition. He's an absolute monster of a horse.
 
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They were talking of CF as a potential future Gold Cup winner in his Arkle year so there was lots of potential there, it didn't work out like that of course.

I hope Douvan goes on to fulfil his potential, horse racing needs superstars like this but to be talking of him pissing up in a Champion Chase is laughable at this stage of his career.


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Champagne Fever 'looked' a stayer with enough pace to win a supreme. Douvan is a different proposition. If he turns out as good as other talking horses Faugheen and Vautour he will go a long way to fulfilling his potential. If you were to listen to connections, they think he may be the best they ever had. He hasnt done anything yet to suggest they are wrong.
 
EC1 said:
Ar Mad has put in an impossible performance there..in fact the figures show he would have beaten SDG quite comfortably if he had run in the Tingle Creek.

I don't think i've ever seen this sort of performance from a novice chaser.

In each section of the race Ar Mad beat or near on equalled equalled SDG..and his finishing time from two out was an amazing 3 seconds quicker than SDG.

The times show that Ar Mad would have gone the early pace in the Tingle Creek and finished a lot quicker than SDG. Even allowing for the 5lb less he carried he can be rated off the scale if SDG has run to something like a mid 160's figure. The overall time for Ar Mad from the first fence to the finish is 4.55 seconds faster [25lbs] than SDG's time...that is impressive ...but the individual sections reveal an even more unreal picture.

Ar Mad
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 67.0
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 47.4
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 25.7
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 51.1
Fence 12 to finish = 27.3


Sire De Grugy
Fence 1 to Fence 3 = 67.1
Fence 3 to fence 7 = 48.1
Fence 7 to fence 10 = 25.5
Fence 10 to Fence 12 = 51.7
Fence 12 to finish = 30.6

The usual feeling with an overall time is..oh well the novice would have been having to go faster early if he had been in the tingle creek and so would have paid later......in fact exactly the opposite has happened when you see the split times.....SDG has consistently run slower in each section..bar one...and his finishing effort from 2 out was 3.3 seconds..or about 16 length slower than Ar Mad's.

Ar Mad has put in the most extraordinary run here.
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looking good..went very fast early again..and still found late on
 
Tell Us More a real interesting one at Leop tomorrow. Looked like superstar in the making first time over hurdles and almost certain to be a better chaser. Large bet for me
 
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