Novice Chasers 2015/16

More of That is a very good horse - he was better hurdler than NMH and I cannot see any reason why he would not be better over fences - he has jumped well and loves Cheltenham and he has more toe .
 
NMH had one season over hurdles. It's not a valid comparison, imo, and hurdles/fences form don't always directly translate anyway.

NMH is as good a novice steeplechaser I've seen in many a long year. MOT is respected, but I think NMH will bury them all with his jumping.
 
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Ardross said:
More of That is a very good horse - he was better hurdler than NMH and I cannot see any reason why he would not be better over fences - he has jumped well and loves Cheltenham and he has more toe .
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The green and gold hoops will play a big part in my punting for the week and I've had MOT down as my banker of the festival for some time.
I've been a bit worried with the on the face of it an unsatisfactory novice campaign in terms of experience and Jonjo's talk of Gold Cup's and shorter trips,but with this latest nigh on confirmation that he's going for the RSA, I shall be rowing in with confidence.
 
Any chance More Of That goes for the JLT instead? Exemplary record over 2 and a half and the race isn't exactly screaming out with top class opponents.
 
Grasshopper said:
NMH had one season over hurdles. It's not a valid comparison, imo, and hurdles/fences form don't always directly translate anyway.

NMH is as good a novice steeplechaser I've seen in many a long year. MOT is respected, but I think NMH will bury them all with his jumping.
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Really??? Many a long year? better novice than UDS/Sprinter Sacre/Simonsig, or other previous RSA winners such as Denman etc?

I'd be worried about NMH spring form, last year he bombed at Cheltenham and Punchestown.
 
NMH looks a natural over his fences but faster ground would give me pause to back him at the odds

tiggers1972 said:
I'd be worried about NMH spring form, last year he bombed at Cheltenham and Punchestown.
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didn't bomb at cheltenham at all. he met serious trouble in running which blew his chance. i remember cos i was f*cking on him.

if it's a soft ground rsa he's a solid fave.
 
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Frankel said:
Jonjo seems confident on MOT.

"I'm looking forward to him going and the ground drying up a little bit.
He seems in great form at home. I would have loved to have run him at Newbury the other day but he is a better horse on good ground and he doesn't mind being fresh so he'll go there with a live chance.
He's in great form. We're very happy with him.
I'm very pleased with the horse. If he turns up there in the same form he did the other day, I don't see anything beating him".
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Does he not have ATR at home??
 
tiggers1972 said:
Really??? Many a long year? better novice than UDS/Sprinter Sacre/Simonsig, or other previous RSA winners such as Denman etc?

I'd be worried about NMH spring form, last year he bombed at Cheltenham and Punchestown.
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Clearly, he still has to go and win a novice-chase championship, but insofar as his jumping is concerned, he is better than all of the above, imo (with possible exception of Sacre).
 
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The horses NMH he has beaten in small field very soft ground races have not really shone since - Rule The World was stuffed last time out and Monksland beaten easily by Outlander .

NMH is a very promising chaser but his form does not entitle him to be much shorter than M of T who was a much better hurdler .
 
Hurdles form is largely irrelevant in my view, Ardross. Also suggest you take a look at what MOT's handful of opponents in chases have done since, before crabbing the form of NMH's races too much. Sametegal (2nd to MOT) was thereafter turned-over by a horse rated 127 over hurdles. The argument just isn't as linear as you suggest.
 
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hezz said:
Agree with this. If indeed More of That beats No More Heroes, it will have nothing to do with hurdles form. Stating it as an argument for why MOT beats him is borderline 'reaching' imo.
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If More of That did not jump well or had been exposed as much better over hurdles than fences I should accept that point but it cannot be irrelevant as it demonstrates levels of ability . I accept that horses can indeed be much better over fences than hurdles ( Arkle being the most obvious example ) but on the evidence so far NMH is too short compared with MOT and their comparative hurdles form is a relevant consideration especially on better ground.
 
Ardross said:
If More of That did not jump well or had been exposed as much better over hurdles than fences I should accept that point but it cannot be irrelevant as it demonstrates levels of ability . I accept that horses can indeed be much better over fences than hurdles ( Arkle being the most obvious example ) but on the evidence so far NMH is too short compared with MOT and their comparative hurdles form is a relevant consideration especially on better ground.
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Relevant consideration, yes. But not to any great degree imo.

You mentioned earlier that "he (MOT) was better hurdler than NMH and I cannot see any reason why he would not be better over fences"

No More Heroes never ran in open company over hurdles, so comparing their hurdles form is not a foundation to be basing an opinion on for me.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of More of That, always have been, and I won't be surprised if he beats No More Heroes.
I agree that perhaps the prices could be closer, or indeed reversed.

But the comparison of their hurdles form, for me, is not something i'd be hanging my hat on.
 
NMH was never afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his level of ability over hurdles, Ardross, because he only spent a novice season over them - again, you are not comparing apples with apples.

On their respective chase form, NMH has every right to be ahead of MOT in the betting, given that he is a dual G1 scorer, and MOT has not raced in anything better than a Class2 novice to date.
 
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Main reason MOT is longer than NMH is Jonjo pissing about talking JLT and Gold Cup and his rep of not showing anyone a birds nest when it comes to JP's horses.

He's certainly come out of his shell lately stating he won't get beat if he jumps.

Not only Gordon Elliot might have something to say about that Sandy Thomson must be thinking the betting is all wrong and
Seeyouatmidnight should be much shorter.

Ok Jonjo's has won a World Hurdle but over fences his best form was beating AsDeMee who hasn't exactly franked the form.

He has certainly looked ok but has never been put under real pressure since his return but to be fair Jonjo usually gets it right at Cheltenham.

Seeyouatmidnight ran a lot better than the final placings suggested in the World Hurdle and has also won both his chases.

In the second of those he's destroyed the very talented Blacklion and despite getting 3lbs it won't change anything come the RSA.

I say that with confidence as Seeyouatmidnight really needs every bit of 3 miles to be seen at his best and the further they went the more he was in control.

No way in my book should Seeyouatmidnight be a 12/1 shot he's gone the right way since taking to fences and if was under PN's or NJH's care he would be half the odds.

Whether he can beat NMH or not I don't know but I'd certainly back him before More of That who has had a set back and has yet to prove he can do it under real pressure
 
What setback did MOT have ? Or are you referring to his wind op and truncated season last year?

Fair point about Seeyouatmidnight but on the other hand when M of T ran the other trainers ran for cover .
 
Tanlic said:
Main reason MOT is longer than NMH is Jonjo pissing about talking JLT and Gold Cup and his rep of not showing anyone a birds nest when it comes to JP's horses.

He's certainly come out of his shell lately stating he won't get beat if he jumps.

Not only Gordon Elliot might have something to say about that Sandy Thomson must be thinking the betting is all wrong and
Seeyouatmidnight should be much shorter.

Ok Jonjo's has won a World Hurdle but over fences his best form was beating AsDeMee who hasn't exactly franked the form.

He has certainly looked ok but has never been put under real pressure since his return but to be fair Jonjo usually gets it right at Cheltenham.

Seeyouatmidnight ran a lot better than the final placings suggested in the World Hurdle and has also won both his chases.

In the second of those he's destroyed the very talented Blacklion and despite getting 3lbs it won't change anything come the RSA.

I say that with confidence as Seeyouatmidnight really needs every bit of 3 miles to be seen at his best and the further they went the more he was in control.

No way in my book should Seeyouatmidnight be a 12/1 shot he's gone the right way since taking to fences and if was under PN's or NJH's care he would be half the odds.

Whether he can beat NMH or not I don't know but I'd certainly back him before More of That who has had a set back and has yet to prove he can do it under real pressure
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I'm pretty sure the trainer has said Seeyouatmidnight needs it to be soft ground to be seen at his best & maybe wouldn't run if it was good ground.
 
Would be better but as long as there is some cut the rsa is usually a stiff enough test...It would need to be very fast to miss what has been his long term target

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