Novice Chasers 2016/2017

Aughex said:
I hope he takes well to chasing as he has JLT winner written all over him.

Regarding Altior, Fehily unlike his first ride, hesitated today to go past them too early and there were couple of furlongs in the backend where he just watched over and I think that affected their time vs the Tingle Creek race(who were lead by the insane Ar Mad), but Altior should be 6/4 for the CC not Arkle. Really incredible that he's odds against for the novices. All being well, thats the race Nicky will send him for, he doesn't have the guts to go for the CC with a novice so 99% its known Arkle is the target, so why he's still odds against is a mystery which I welcome as it allows me to continue including him in the accumulators.
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Nicky Henderson/Sprinter Sacre was not looking forward to taking on Douvan in the QMCC who was no better than evens to beat him and you want to take him on with a novice?

Altior was quite impressive, You mention the time but I don't think you realise how much pace, or the lack of, aids a novice.

They have gone not just slow but incredibly slow yesterday, even for novices. Altior has bags of speed which gave him a huge advantage.

He was actually 3 seconds faster from the home turn than UDS, who ran in a proper race,was.

It's things like this that fools punters into thinking they are watching the next coming.
 
Tanlic said:
It's things like this that fools punters into thinking they are watching the next coming.
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Get a mirror mate, you're the one preaching how Douvan is the God-like creature that we're blessed with. All I'm saying is that Altior should go CC already, I'm not saying he's going to win or not but if he goes there he'll be a short odds to win. Altior has put one of the great novice hurdlers performances in his Supreme at Chelt, 2nd only to what Faugheen did at Punchestown as a novice. He would've been well fancied with many in the CH, with Faugheen in there.

You can imagine that in the CC he'd be even more so now with SS retired. I have faith that Ar Mad would be an outstanding 2 mile chaser in time but his trainer has strange views of him like not handling left-handed tracks or having more stamina so who's left then? Only Douvan who competed against a very standard bunch of animals all his life, he's never met anything like Altior. I'm hoping that Mullins will have no choice after yesterday and let UDS compete but thats still very doubtful. And spare me of Nicky not looking forward to meeting him with SS, you saw how scared he was to take Douvan out against G1 open company field.

We now know Altior a good jumper of bigger obstacles and in this last race he basically destroyed a promising horse in couple of strides, only thing missing is a ballsy trainer like Tizzard and you'd be shaking as hell knowing Douvan won't have such an easy time like it looks at the moment.
 
It's interesting that many have been crabbing Thistlecrack's jumping, yet to my eye Altior made similar mistakes yesterday and nothing has been said.

On the point above, it's far more likely that Altior would be exposed at Champion Chase pace than Thistlecrack would be at Gold Cup pace.

For what it's worth, unless either prove they can jump liked seasoned professionals they should be contesting novice chases at this Festival. Of the two I think Thistlecrack is more likely to though, as his mistakes were essentially putting in long ones when they were at half pace. At Championship pace he'd be winging them rather than looking scruffy.
 
Nicky Henderson wouldn't run Altior in the QMCC if the prize was twice as much. You only need to listen to the man to know he thinks Douvan is a monster on a par with Sprinter Sacre saying he is already chasing his record.

To date Altior has only beaten Charbal 6 lengths a horse he beat twice as far in the Supreme. He's better for alot more but he's a very long way from taking on UDS and Co let alone Douvan...that's strictly for the fairies:)

Thistlecrack could end up not running in the Gold Cup if Cue Card wins the King George.

Colin Tizzard would have 100,000 reasons to suggest he's not ready for such a test.

I mean what do you do in a situation like that..........risk running him and if he beats you it costs your owner 1million? Not an easy decision
 
He's got two more owners to consider with Thistlecrack and Native River. If they're good enough he'll run them irrespective of the bonus Tanlic.
 
I think we can forget native River running and I get you point but real life isn't always like that. A possible 200K plus pay day versus a possible 20k pay day can swing the best trainers into convincing their owner it's for the best.
 
SP Only said:
People forget about the 1m bonus it can be hedged.
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By you and who's army?...............I apologies if I am wrong here BUT!!!

Hedging by backing all the others to guarantee 1 million baht profit would have cost 865,000 pounds in last years Gold Cup..

Biggest bet 310,000 pounds at 9/4 Smallest bet 15,000 pounds at 66/1

You would need dozens of people to get the correct amount of money on at the right prices even at Cheltenham

I can just imagine the response when you asked Coral's eg for 38k at 25/1 what the response would be

People running round the place like headless chickens bookies slashing everything in the race.......Time to recalculate lol a shambles me thinks
 
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Tanlic said:
By you and who's army?...............I apologies if I am wrong here BUT!!!

Hedging by backing all the others to guarantee 1 million baht profit would have cost 865,000 pounds in last years Gold Cup..

Biggest bet 310,000 pounds at 9/4 Smallest bet 15,000 pounds at 66/1

You would need dozens of people to get the correct amount of money on at the right prices even at Cheltenham

I can just imagine the response when you asked Coral's eg for 38k at 25/1 what the response would be

People running round the place like headless chickens bookies slashing everything in the race.......Time to recalculate lol a shambles me thinks
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As I said the discussion has been about what would owners think if Thistlecrack was to beat CC in the GC. Hence you only need to back Thistlecrack as if the horse is beat by anything else it's irrelevant anyway.
 
You still got to get nearly quarter of a million at 3/1 and over 40 grand at 20/1.....and then you stand to lose money if none of the 3 wins.

I just had a look at leg 2. The King George and without Thistlecrack it looks like a walkover for Cue Card if Douvan doesn't go.

I just don't see Coneygree coming back and he was probably never as good as Cue Card at 3 miles anyway.

As much as I think novices should be kept to novice chases if I were the owner I would want Thistlecrack to run if Douvan did not.

The way the race looks he might have to only get round to pick up 2nd and that is worth 3 grand more than winning the Kauto Star.

If he couldn't at least finish 2nd in the likely turnout his chances in the Gold Cup are nil
 
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I think Thistlecrack should stay novice chasing . He jumps like a novice albeit a good novice . Coneygree was out of the ordinary in that he jumped like an old pro from the start .

Since Captain Christy won as a novice despite some dodgy jumping novices have a terrible record concealed only by Coneygree .

Lanzarote ( another brilliant hurdler) and Gloria Victis paid the ultimate price , others were never the same again e.g The real bandit and Beef or Salmon was lucky to avoid serious injury ( having won some slowly run Grade 1s in Ireland the pace of a Gold Cup was a terrible shock ) and he clearly pretty much hated the place from then on .
 
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I hear you re Lanzarote and Gloria Victis and it is always concern that everyone brings up. That said others like the brilliant Bonna Notte who was sailing passed Arkle on the bridle in the Massey Ferguson when he walked straight through the last and the horse Fred Winter said was the best he ever had, Killiney both lost their lives very on in their chasing careers. Other's like Alverton eg survive longer but end up dying in the same way. Then some like Bula die from injuries sustained from a fall (2 mile Champion Chase) It's a hard game and it takes it's toll at all ages. That's not to say we should tempt fate.


The problem with novices and what people don't realise is they simply can't handle the pace changes which play havoc with immature frames..Look back at my old pal Sprinter Sacre going from hack cantering to stopping dead and he was fit as a fiddle.......the sudden change in pace was just too much for him and he caused it lol

Because Thistlecrack has won a WH in a canter we know he has speed but it's not about that......There's a huge difference between running away from some middle of the road hurdler and chasing Coneygree while having Don Cossack Cue Card and hopefully Douvan snapping at your heels. The pace changes in the Gold Cup have left great horses like Kauto Star and Denman struggling and they were seasoned chasers.

Overall I tend to agree with you but I would still be tempted to take on Cue Card and find out if the race cuts up.:lol:nuts I know
 
Ardross I agree with all but one, he should stick to WH instead of remaining novice chasing. That way it gives CC a better chance to win the bonus if he wins the KG by then. Its irelevant because I think Coneygree will reverse form in the KG but Thistlecrack doesn't jumps like he should for a task like GC with 22 fences against high quality opposition. Coneygree is the best jumper of a fence I saw and even though the raw ability was important, the jumping skills helped alot in winning his GC. Thistlecrack should remain WH and perhaps return next year over fences when CC, Don and Coneygree, will either be retired or too old.
 
I can understand the TC knocking but I'm on the dream as I love the horse.
As yet they haven't let the choke out.
Who knows what he is showing at home/trials.
He hasn't looked like falling so far.
Based on the last few GC's stamina has played a big part and TC has it in spades.
I'm not bothered if they wait for the GC to launch him at full pelt.
All you knockers should be happy since he's making the opposition prices more tempting.
 
Knockers make your price as well.. I've seen too many on the forums come and go due to too much passion for one horse. Try to look more objectively and you'll see I haven't knocked your precious horse. I was saying it would be better for him to take the WH route than to go against tough experienced chasers in his first year without him showing the jumping traits required for the task. Opinions opinions...
 
I really think this bonus could become a huge issue in the decision making. I'm trying to remember if Nicholls was ever in this position with Kauto & Denman but can't recall any such debate.

Obviously there's only one Gold Cup but is there a possibility Thistlecrack owners could be persuaded to take in another target if promised a cut of the bonus?
 
Let us not forget Iris's Gift , another great staying hurdler who was lucky to get round in the GC given a brilliant ride by AP to do do. Admittedly he clearly hated chasing yet his owner bizarrely persevered .
 
If he waits for the Gold Cup then he loses the chance to go for the WH if things go wrong. I'm not sure they should wait,

He handled the Cheltenham fences ok but (slow by 36.50s) While Taquin Du Seuil was (slow by 18.60s) that's enough time difference to make beans and toast LOL

There is a huge plus with Thistlecrack if you look back to when he finished 2nd to Killultagh Vic he was banged about on the rails and had to squeeze through but he showed a great attitude and his jumping held up really well despite the pressure he absolutely pinged the last....That strong attitude should hold him in good stead if he does go for the big one in March.
 
( having won some slowly run Grade 1s in Ireland the pace of a Gold Cup was a terrible shock )

:D Let it go, Louis, let it go...
 
TheBear said:
I really think this bonus could become a huge issue in the decision making. I'm trying to remember if Nicholls was ever in this position with Kauto & Denman but can't recall any such debate.

Obviously there's only one Gold Cup but is there a possibility Thistlecrack owners could be persuaded to take in another target if promised a cut of the bonus?
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Wasn't it started after Kauto Star retired?

The problem with buying them off is I don't think they could The World Hurdle is only worth 170k you get 129k for finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup but you can win 325K The incentive is not there to miss the race.........The bonus is actually 650k to the winning owner..OK so I'll take half NOW!!! plus half the prize money..... an offer you can't refuse:)

The problem with that is Cue Cards owner could end up paying out 500k if his horse doesn't win.

If it does become an issue I think it will be Tizzard if anyone who might convince someone he's not quite ready for a Gold Cup...........He gets almost 200K if Cue Card pulls it off he gets about a quarter of that if 1. Thistlecrack 2. Cue Card......Definitely as you say food for thought
 
Didn't Kauto Star win it the first year it was put up - and Betfair chickened out for the next couple of seasons?
 
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