Novice Chasers 2016/2017

Double Handful said:
In relation to American Tom, he's only run over 2m to date, is it purely due to Min in the same colours that he is assumed to be aimed at the JLT. If there was no Min, surely it would be all Arkle talk? Is there evidence in his breeding that a step up in trip is likely to suit?
I just wonder is there any chance that Min could be the one to go for the JLT... Is there anything in his breeding to suggest this?


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Not too much difference between the two trips in terms of breeding

One race is more desirable to win than the other and Min has a score to settle with Altior

Min is also being campaigned as their best 2 miler - starting off in that Navan race and taking on the Thief for Christmas
 
Double Handful said:
In relation to American Tom, he's only run over 2m to date, is it purely due to Min in the same colours that he is assumed to be aimed at the JLT. If there was no Min, surely it would be all Arkle talk? Is there evidence in his breeding that a step up in trip is likely to suit?
I just wonder is there any chance that Min could be the one to go for the JLT... Is there anything in his breeding to suggest this?


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American Tom apart, American Post's best Jumps progeny to-date is Lamigo, who has won a couple of Listed Hurdles in France over 19.5f in heavy ground. He had several other Jumps winners at trips between 2m and 3m+, so it's probably fair to assume that going up in trip will not be an issue for American Tom.

Min's sire is Walk In The Dark, whose best Jumps progeny is a little-known 2m chaser from a small yard in Ireland. He is called Douvan, and is one to keep an eye out for, imo.
 
granger said:
Gangster will need a lot further for sure, 3m minimum

In fairness to American Tom, after being off so long, it was a decent showing but shorter than Coney Island - can't have that
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If Oddschecker is anything to go by, Coney Island will be heading to the RSA rather than the JLT.
 
That's fair enough too......though he is a 12/1 chance in places. t's not like they've smashed him to bits after that run - he was no bigger than 16/1 before the race (trust me - I looked!).
 
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The xmas clash at Leopardstown could play a role in framing the JLT market - if one of the leading 2 protagonists were to win with somewhat ease, a case could be made to step the other up into JLT trip
 
granger said:
Not too much difference between the two trips in terms of breeding

One race is more desirable to win than the other and Min has a score to settle with Altior

Min is also being campaigned as their best 2 miler - starting off in that Navan race and taking on the Thief for Christmas
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Cheers Granger and Grassy for the feedback. I don't see betting for that novice chase at Christmas yet. What are we expecting the betting to be between Min and Identity Thief?
 
granger said:
Some overreaction with American Tom in the AP markets after yesterday - am sure there will be pink and green fanboys more than happy to oblige too
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I backed him for the JLT a month or so ago. Looked like he needed the race and jumped left the whole way. Giving away lengths at every fence. I wouldn't be backing him at less than 8s that for sure.
 
Tanlic said:
I fancy American Tom but he is short so I fancy a Mullins treble which pays about 5/1 American Tom, Douvan and Djackadam the latter worries me but what the heck
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Well done Fist - missed this and ended up backing the "value" EW loser which is the way my punting has gone over the last few weeks...
 
I couldn't back Yorkhill for the JLT unless he was 100% going to run.

He would pick Min up and carry him and if he doesn't make the grade could Yorkhill run in the Arkle perhaps?
 
Tanlic said:
I couldn't back Yorkhill for the JLT unless he was 100% going to run.

He would pick Min up and carry him and if he doesn't make the grade could Yorkhill run in the Arkle perhaps?
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Or the RSA.... Yorkhill could yet run in any of the Novice races!
 
Tanlic said:
I couldn't back Yorkhill for the JLT unless he was 100% going to run.

He would pick Min up and carry him and if he doesn't make the grade could Yorkhill run in the Arkle perhaps?
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Yorkhill's 2m form isn't worth a carrot - Min would laugh at him at that trip.
 
The best 2m form Yorkhill can boast is a win over O O Seven and Agrapart.

That pair wouldn't finish in the same parish as Min over 2m. In fact, they probably wouldn't even be allowed in the same race as Min, for fear of embarrassing themselves. ;)
 
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I am going to side with Vintage Clouds over One Track Mind at Carlisle this afternoon. The Greatrex horse belted the first at Newbury and never got into the race. He’ll surely do better, but that was an inauspicious start to a novice chasing campaign… Vintage Clouds jumps well, pretty certain he’ll stay and I’ll take him to frank the form with Politologue, who I think is one of the best novices we’ve seen in the UK so far

The 2.5m beginners at Wincanton is also interesting.

Barney Dwan looks short enough and Connetable may go well in receipt of a few lbs, but I‘ve backed a couple of the bigger priced ones EW. Robinsfirth, who is a huge monster of horse, built to jump, had decent novice hurdle form 2 seasons ago, but is a bit of a guess whether the Tizzards have him straight enough. Wishing And Hoping also looks too big at 12/1 as was jumping well until coming down at Plumpton and would have given Baron Alco a real race
 
Grasshopper said:
The best 2m form Yorkhill can boast is a win over O O Seven and Agrapart.

That pair wouldn't finish in the same parish as Min over 2m. In fact, they probably wouldn't even be allowed in the same race as Min, for fear of embarrassing themselves. ;)
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Gave me a chuckle at least :cool:
 
Perpetual said:
I am going to side with Vintage Clouds over One Track Mind at Carlisle this afternoon. The Greatrex horse belted the first at Newbury and never got into the race. He’ll surely do better, but that was an inauspicious start to a novice chasing campaign… Vintage Clouds jumps well, pretty certain he’ll stay and I’ll take him to frank the form with Politologue, who I think is one of the best novices we’ve seen in the UK so far

The 2.5m beginners at Wincanton is also interesting.

Barney Dwan looks short enough and Connetable may go well in receipt of a few lbs, but I‘ve backed a couple of the bigger priced ones EW. Robinsfirth, who is a huge monster of horse, built to jump, had decent novice hurdle form 2 seasons ago, but is a bit of a guess whether the Tizzards have him straight enough. Wishing And Hoping also looks too big at 12/1 as was jumping well until coming down at Plumpton and would have given Baron Alco a real race
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I'm going for a otm barney d double. ;-)
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm a wee bit bored. :lol:
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don't get me started.. im due a dozen replies on the crap I've been reading on here and other threads.. but i'll just remind that NC, like I said a long time ago, will be sacrificed for the staying trips(confirmed by Wylie) although he has no stamina, even for 2 and half.
 
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