Novice Chasers 2016/2017

Mullins says Min has banged a knee. Not serious and had even declared him initially this morning, but decided to err on side of caution.
 
Naff again from Aux Ptits Soins. Clearly that prolonged absence has soured him. Back over hurdles again I'd imagine.
 
Indeed. Uncomfortable to watch.

That's a few too many of Nicholls good ones having jumping frailties exposed for my liking.
 
Premier Bond paid a compliment to Might Bite's already handsome form today. With Our Duke not even entered, I have Henderson's horse as the most solid option in the RSA - his last fence fall at Kempton notwithstanding - and reckon Betfair Sportsbook's 12/1 is an immense price.

Bellshill commands respect, but Might Bite should not be three times the price. No way.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Premier Bond paid a compliment to Might Bite's already handsome form today. With Our Duke not even entered, I have Henderson's horse as the most solid option in the RSA - his last fence fall at Kempton notwithstanding - and reckon Betfair Sportsbook's 12/1 is an immense price.

Bellshill commands respect, but Might Bite should not be three times the price. No way.
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Bellshill is priced up on trainer/jockey and familiarity - on all known form he hates Cheltenham
 
That is some boost he may just be a bit special the Might Bite who was absolutely flying compared to Thistlecrack at the tail end of the Kauto Star.

Can't say I was ever a fan of Royal Vacation who I wrote off when he got stuffed by Qewy but Tizzard has won 6 races with him and will probably win 6 more.......can't be right all the time:(
 
I put Royal Vacation in my tracker after he was second to As De Mee in a Beginners Chase at Fontwell in mid October. I liked the way he jumped. Backed him ten days later when he was second to Zeroshadesofgrey at Wetherby and then ditched him.


If the BUV is disappointing next week at Sandown and Faugheen fails to make the Champion Hurdle it isn't inconceivable that the front two in the JLT market run in the Champion Hurdle instead.

So these are alternatives:

Whisper (too old)
Politologue (flat track horse, poor at Cheltenham twice)
Coney Island (RSA? Form boost yesterday)
Bellshill (RSA? Possible diversion if Yorkhill does not run but another one with less than stellar Chelt form)
Identity Thief (Arkle surely if he wins today but again JLT could open up. Stamina?)

Others could come into it. Top Notch, Le Prezien
 
I can't see Politologue going myself. I reckon they might keep him back for Ayr, and the valuable 20f novice at the Scottish National meeting. Nicholls likes to have runners there, and he has a good record in the race.

I have Top Notch for the JLT in a couple of speculative multiples. It's hard to crab his track-form (2nd in a Triumph, 5th in a Champion Hurdle), and he is game and genuine. There are worse options at 20/1, I reckon.
 
Euronymous said:
I put Royal Vacation in my tracker after he was second to As De Mee in a Beginners Chase at Fontwell in mid October. I liked the way he jumped. Backed him ten days later when he was second to Zeroshadesofgrey at Wetherby and then ditched him.


If the BUV is disappointing next week at Sandown and Faugheen fails to make the Champion Hurdle it isn't inconceivable that the front two in the JLT market run in the Champion Hurdle instead.

So these are alternatives:

Whisper (too old)
Politologue (flat track horse, poor at Cheltenham twice)
Coney Island (RSA? Form boost yesterday)
Bellshill (RSA? Possible diversion if Yorkhill does not run but another one with less than stellar Chelt form)
Identity Thief (Arkle surely if he wins today but again JLT could open up. Stamina?)

Others could come into it. Top Notch, Le Prezien
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Thinking Coney will go JLT after Leopardstown xmas and sav him for next years Gold cup. Eddie Harty is a patient man

Identity Thief could be JLT if today doesn't go well
 
What a mess of a race that was. It's got to be said that Ruby was letting the horse make his own decisions again at the last. When tiredness is a factor the horse will always put that extra stride in and inevitably get in too close.
 
Our Duke entered in the PJ Moriarity - They must be saving him from travelling this year so

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Looks like Politologue is being targeted at the JLT which is great news for my battered Ante Post book

From the Sporting Life...

Connections of the Grade Two-winning grey are keen to give the six-year-old a slightly less exacting test before he runs in the JLT Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Hales said: "I don't think he's going to run at the weekend.
"We just need to wind him down a bit as he was wired up at Haydock and nearly pulled Sam Twiston-Davies' arms out going down.
"We don't want to put him in a hot race again just yet.
"We want to find another race before Cheltenham to get him settled and relaxed.
"He's a fabulous horse - one of the best I've have ever had.
"The JLT is the plan."
Politologue, trained by Paul Nicholls, looked the real deal in the Mitie Noel Novices' Chase at Ascot in December.
He then lost very little in defeat in a Grade Two novice chase at Haydock when he went down by a length and a quarter to Waiting Patiently, to whom he was giving 3lb.
Nicholls also has Le Prezien, Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux entered in the Scilly Isles, but said earlier in the week that the latter was his "most likely" candidate for Grade One honours.
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Euronymous said:
So these are alternatives:

Politologue (flat track horse, poor at Cheltenham twice)
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Just spotted this Euro

I have to confess to a bit of a blind spot when it comes to Politologue, but do not write him off totally based on course form. He was travelling nicely in his novice when jinking at the last and unseating STD. That was a decent race won by North Hill Harvey

The festival run is a bit more concerning, but am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as a novice in a 26 runner Coral Cup on only his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] start over here

My one niggling doubt is whether he can handle the whole festival atmosphere. Hopefully he can, being older and more experienced

If it came up soft I will have a saver on Waiting Patiently
 
So glad to see Top Notch put up a classy performance but again Hendo remarks today after a win puzzles me, saying he `jumped great` what was he watching, he was very lucky he got safely over some of them. Its more impressive that he did it with all the jumping mistakes though and its clear he has a huge engine, 5th in CH, so if he's lucky enough to jump everything he'll be in with a great winning chance for the JLT.
 
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